Accuscore’s MLB Opening Day 2020 Season Futures
The MLB season is finally here, after being postponed for almost four months. Despite the condensed schedule, we still have 900 games of baseball and a ton of MLB picks ahead of us, not to mention the playoffs, taking place as usual in their usual format. So after all is said and done, the MLB World Champion will be crowned in 2020 as well. Washington Nationals took everyone by surprise last season, winning the title ahead of the 2017 champions Houston Astros. Accuscore predicted both of the teams to make it to top-4 before the season, as Nationals were 2nd in the NL and Astros the best in the league and AL. But now the last season is done and dusted, so who will be the dark horse in this season’s race, or are the favorites likely to steamroll over the challengers in the shortened season?
Accuscore’s simulation engine has once again huffed and puffed the season through for some 10 000 times to determine the outcome of the fast and furious 2020 MLB Regular Season. And once again, the simulations somewhat disagree with the Season Futures lines provided by the oddsmakers. Here’s a look how the Accuscore simulations predict the regular season to finish.
The Best Value Futures for MLB 2020 Regular Season
Take a long shot with an underdog
The current MLB odds for the heavy underdogs making the playoffs are set way higher than Accuscore’s simulations indicate. Yes, bad teams are still bad teams, but just as a bad team might have a good run for a month or two in full length season, they just might have a good run in the condensed season. It is likely that the difference in winning percentage remains quite small throughout the league, so those long odds for some of the underdogs seem extremely attractive – if only betting some pocket change, the returns are mouthwatering.
San Francisco Giants to make playoffs: Accuscore 16.40% - Vegas 2.44%, take odds of +4000
Detroit Tigers to make playoffs: Accuscore 9.22% - Vegas 2.44%, take odds of +4000
Fancy the up-and-coming challengers
Praising Atlanta Braves is starting to sound like a broken record, but for a good reason. There are barely any weak points in the roster and Braves made strides already last season. Now it’s time for the breakthrough and despite NL East being extremely competitive, the odds for Braves to go to playoffs are simply too good to pass.
Atlanta Braves to make playoffs: Accuscore 83.85% - Vegas 48.78%, take odds of +105
Accuscore’s Best Value Win Total Over/Under
Baltimore Orioles has the least wins budgeted by Vegas, with the line being at 20.5, meaning a winning 35% of their games. Now, remember the season is way shorter than usual and we are onto something here. Baltimore won exactly 1/3 of their games last season and they would need one extra win this time to make it to 21. Accuscore has Baltimore at 26 wins, so we’ll take the over 20.5 wins for Orioles.
Tampa Bay Rays went all the way to playoffs last season, recording 96 wins, beating Oakland easily in the Wild Card and properly challenging Houston Astros in the playoffs. That being said, Rays’ win total is pushed to 33.5 this season, putting them third in the AL. Yankees should take the division easily, and Toronto with declining Red Sox are worthy opponents. Accuscore has Tampa Bay winning 30 games, so we like the line of under 33.5 here.
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