NFL MNF: Packers vs Lions - Free Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Packers vs Lions: Monday Night Football - Free Analyst Pick

We weren't very accurate with our Sunday analyst game pick, but we're ready to make up for that loss with Monday Night Football and a FREE Analyst Pick. The Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers -- coming off a bye week -- host the Detroit Lions in a divisional matchup.

Vegas Odds

The matchup actually opened as a pick 'em before the Lions settled in as 2-point road favrotites. The total creeped up a half-point to 43.5.

Betting Line: Detroit Lions -2
Total: 43.5

At the time of publication, about 63 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Lions. 60 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
-The Packers are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 6 games.
-The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Lions' last 18 games.

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What to Watch For

The Lions are in the top half of the league in turnover margin, with QB Matt Stafford recording zero INTs on the season so far. Their defense ranks No. 3 in takeaways.

Detroit's defense is projeted to force two turnovers Monday night, with the simulations leaning towards two INTs as opposed to any forced fumbles.

Looking at this matchup, the deciding factor just might come down to how well the Lions defend against the run. They're No. 6 in the league in containing the ground attacking, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry (ypc).

The three main backs for Green Bay -- Aaron Jones, Ty Montgomery, and Aaron Ripkowski -- are projected to finish with a combined 126 rushing yards. Each player averages at least 4.5 ypc in the sims.

With Green Bay coming off a bye, QB Brett Hundley had an extra week to prepare for this matchup. Given how he's been playing in place of Rodgers, it's much needed preparation time. This by itself could be a huge factor knowing the the Lions are coming off a physical game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Hundley is projected to finish with 163 yards, 2 INTs and 1 TD.

Analyst's Pick

Lions cover on the road.

It's not the most glamorous pick, but one side has a QB and the other side doesn't. Sort of. The extra week off could be huge for Hundley, but the sims have more faith in a Detroit defense that'll look to pressure the QB.