• 2018 NFC Championship: Eagles vs Vikings - Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    NFC Championship: Eagles vs Vikings – Analyst Preview & Pick

    We've got a pair of 11-6 against the spread (ATS) teams going at it this Sunday as the Philadelphia Eagles host Minnesota Vikings in a matchup that decides who represents the NFC in the Super Bowl.

    Let's take a closer look at the matchup and where the value is.

    Vegas Odds
    The Vikings opened as 3.5-point favorites before settling in at -3 in most books. The total saw a similar lack of movement since opening at 38.5.

    Betting Line: Minnesota Vikings -3
    Total: 38.5/39

    At the time of publication, 53 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Vikings.

    54 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    All of AccuScore's NFL Championship Weekend Projections, Trends and Forecasts:NFL Playoffs Picks
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    What to Watch For

    Passing Yards: The Vikings have the 11th most passing yards per game (238.88). The Eagles are No. 13 in the league (233.82). What's interesting though is that Philly has the 23rd-most home passing yards per game.

    QB Nick Foles is projected to finish this matchup with 215 passing yards and 1 TD.

    Weapons: The Vikings are No. 3 in passing yards allowed, while the Eagles are No. 17. The Eagles are No. 1 in fewest rushing yards allowed, while the Vikings are No. 2 in the same category. Don't expect either side to have much production on the ground. All that makes sense when you see the Eagles and Vikings are one-and-two in total defensive time on field.

    The Eagles' defense is projected to finish with 1-plus takeaway, with there being just a slightly higher probability at a pick as opposed to a recovered fumble. The Vikings' defense is projected to force fewer than one turnover; if it does happen, there's a slightly higher probability for an INT.

    Analyst's Pick
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    Analyst Pick: The OVER.

    The total has gone OVER in four of Minnesota's last six games on the road. The score goes over 38.5 in about 53 percent of simulated matchups.

  • 2018 NFL Playoffs: Vikings vs Saints Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    2018 NFL Playoffs: Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints - Divisional Round Analyst Pick

    Our NFL Expert made two picks for Wildcard Weekend and got both right: Panthers +7 and Falcons +6.5...scroll to the bottom for his Analyst Pick for the Divisional Round...

    The Minnesota Vikings very well could end up with a dream-like season if they ultimately advance to the Super Bowl being played in their home stadium. To get there, though, they'll have to get past the New Orleans Saints this weekend.

    Let's take a closer look at the matchup and where the value is.

    Vegas Odds
    Minnesota opened as 3.5-point favorites before shooting up to -5 in some books. The spread has settled at -4.5 in most books. The total opened at 45 before settling in about a point higher.

    Betting Line: Minnesota Vikings -4.5
    Total: 46.5

    At the time of publication, 57 percent of the public was taking the points and taking the Saints.

    61 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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    AccuScore Betting Trends: Wild Card Weekend
    • Against the Spread: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +790 profit)
    • Over/Under Picks: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +1800 profit)
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    Betting Trends
    • Minnesota is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 5 games at home.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games.
    • New Orleans is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games.

    What to Watch For

    QB Play: Case Keenum will start in his first playoff game this weekend, and playing in front of a home crowd should help to calm any added nerves. He threw for eight TDs and just two INTs in seven homes games this season. On the other side, we've got Drew Brees who went 4-4 straight up (SU) and ATS this season on the road; Brees is 1-4 SU in his career on the road, throwing for eight TDs and five INTs.

    Keenum is projected to finish with 261 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Brees is projected to finish with 282 passing yards, 2+ TDs and 1 INT.

    Weapons: In last week's matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Saints, a couple of Brees' weapons stood out. Wide receiver Michael Thomas came up huge late in the game, finishing with eight catches for 131 yards. WR Ted Ginn Jr. was clutch in the final quarter of play, finishing with 115 yards and 1 TD on four catches.

    Thomas is projected to finish with 69 yards on seven receptions; Ginn is projected to finish with 49 yards on four receptions.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • Free Analyst Pick: Chiefs vs Redskins on MNF

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Monday Night Football: Chiefs vs Redskins - Analyst Pick

    We've got a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend alert in this Monday night's matchup at Arrowhead Stadium between the Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs opened as 9-point favorites before settling down at 7 Sunday afternoon. The total's stayed consistent at 49 or 49.5.

    AccuScore’s Full MNF Forecast & Picks

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore SIm Data

    One thing's for sure -- the Chiefs are fairly heavy favorites. Vegas odds have the Chiefs getting -340 odds on the money line, indicating a 77.27 percent chance of winning. Kansas City wins 77.3. percent of simulated matchups, on par with the probabilities suggested by Vegas odds.

    The spread's where the value is at in this matchup. The sim data actually has the home side favored by 10 points, indicating a whole lot of value on the 7-point spread.

    The Chiefs cover a 7-point spread in 55.4 percent of simulations, a four-star AccuScore hot trend. The 55.4 percent probability would have had the odds at -125, showing the value on the -110 most books are offering for the 7-point spread.

    AccuScore Betting Trends
    • All Totals Picks: 35-23-4, 60.3% +970
    • All Picks Against the Spread: 33-26-3 55.9% +440
    • All Side Value Picks: 32-38, +614
    • All Side Value, Spread & Totals Picks: +2024 profit

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    Top Non-AccuScore Betting Trends
    • The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games.
    • The Chiefs are 5-1 straight up (SU) in their last 6 games.
    • The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a SU win.
    • The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Chiefs' last 6 games.
    • The total has gone OVER in 17 of the Redskins' last 24 games.

    What to Watch For

    Washington QB Kirk Cousins was magnificent in last week's victory with 365 passing yards and three TDs, completing 25 of his 30 attempts.

    He's projected to finish Monday night's game with 298 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. In the 22 percent of simulated matchups in which the Redskins win, Cousins averages 2.12 TDs to 0.44 INTs; in the losses, he's at 1.62 TDs to 0.82 INTs.

    Free Analyst's Pick

    The favorite between these two sides has covered ATS in four of the last five meetings, and the total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings.

    We'll go with the Chiefs covering, and the OVER. Safe play might be to buy a half-point on the 7-point spread to make it 6.5.

  • Jaguars vs Texans: Analyst Pick - NFL Week 1

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Week 1 Analyst Pick: Jaguars vs Texans

    Despite the craziness of Hurricane Harvey, this Sunday's matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans is still scheduled to be played. The Texans head into their Week 1 matchup as 5.5-point favorites with the total set at 39.5.

    All ofAccuScore’s Week 1 NFL Expert Picks

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sim Data

    The Texans opened as 4.5-point favorites, moving to 5.5 on Friday. AccuScore simulations, however, have the line at just 3, indicating a pick on the Jags to cover.

    The Jaguars cover a 5.5-point spread in about 61 percent of simulations, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. Most books in Vegas are offering Jacksonville +5.5 at -110, indicating about a 52 percent chance of happening.

    The Jags are getting +210 on the money line, indicating about a 32 percent chance of happening. Jacksonville wins 46 percent of sims. AccuScore data would have listed their money line odds at about +115 to +120, offering a whole lot of value on the +210.

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    What to Watch For

    Blake Bortles is projected to start for the Jags and that's actually a fairly important variable in projecting a more competitive matchup than do Vegas odds. He struggled overall with turnovers last season, but had an above-average performance against Houston. In two matchups, he fnished with 357 total yards and 2 TDs and 2 INTs.

    Bortles is projected to to finish with 199 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and a passer rating of 95.2.

    Key Betting Trend

    The Jaguars are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five road games vs the Texans.

    Analyst's Pick

    The Jaguars are 1-9 straight up (SU) in their last 10 road games. They're also 5-5 ATS in those same games. We'll take the Jags to cover late.

  • NFL MNF: Falcons at Buccaneers - Analyst Preview & Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

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    NFL Monday Night Picks: Falcons vs Bucs

    Week 15 in the NFL wraps up Monday night in Tampa Bay as the Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons in a matchup that's projecting to be fairly high-scoring, with only one other game on the week's slate having a higher total listed in Vegas (Patriots-Steelers with a total set at 54.5).

    Vegas Odds

    The Falcons opened up at 4-point favorites before some heavy public action pushed it up to -6.5 in most books; the total creeped up from 47.5 to 49.

    Betting Line: Atlanta Falcons -6.5
    Total: 49

    At the time of publication, 65 percent of the public were laying the points and taking the Falcons.

    63-plus percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends

    - The Falcons are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games.
    The Falcons are 6-2 straight up (SU) in their last eight road games.
    -The total has gone OVER in six of the Falcons' last nine games vs the Bucs.

    What to Watch For

    NFC South: The fate of the NFC South is yet to be decided with three teams still having a chance at the playoffs. The Falcons, heading into the matchup having won four of their last five, will treat this as a must-win. Tevin Coleman suffered a concussion last week and he's the only big-name player that'll be potentially out Monday night. QB Matt Ryan finished with 221 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs in last week's 20-17 win over New Orleans.

    Ryan is projected to finish this week's matchup with 284 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

    Struggling Buccaneers: Tampa Bay has dropped three straight heading into this matchup. They've been a major disappointment this year after a nine-win season last year. In Jameis Winston's 42 career games, he has turned the ball over 53 times – second-most in the league since his 2015 rookie season.

    Winston is projected to finish with 267 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFL MNF: Packers vs Lions - Free Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Packers vs Lions: Monday Night Football - Free Analyst Pick

    We weren't very accurate with our Sunday analyst game pick, but we're ready to make up for that loss with Monday Night Football and a FREE Analyst Pick. The Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers -- coming off a bye week -- host the Detroit Lions in a divisional matchup.

    Vegas Odds

    The matchup actually opened as a pick 'em before the Lions settled in as 2-point road favrotites. The total creeped up a half-point to 43.5.

    Betting Line: Detroit Lions -2
    Total: 43.5

    At the time of publication, about 63 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Lions. 60 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    -The Packers are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 6 games.
    -The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Lions' last 18 games.

    AccuScore has picks against the spread, on the moneyline, Totals and player projections for every game...
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    What to Watch For

    The Lions are in the top half of the league in turnover margin, with QB Matt Stafford recording zero INTs on the season so far. Their defense ranks No. 3 in takeaways.

    Detroit's defense is projeted to force two turnovers Monday night, with the simulations leaning towards two INTs as opposed to any forced fumbles.

    Looking at this matchup, the deciding factor just might come down to how well the Lions defend against the run. They're No. 6 in the league in containing the ground attacking, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry (ypc).

    The three main backs for Green Bay -- Aaron Jones, Ty Montgomery, and Aaron Ripkowski -- are projected to finish with a combined 126 rushing yards. Each player averages at least 4.5 ypc in the sims.

    With Green Bay coming off a bye, QB Brett Hundley had an extra week to prepare for this matchup. Given how he's been playing in place of Rodgers, it's much needed preparation time. This by itself could be a huge factor knowing the the Lions are coming off a physical game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

    Hundley is projected to finish with 163 yards, 2 INTs and 1 TD.

    Analyst's Pick

    Lions cover on the road.

    It's not the most glamorous pick, but one side has a QB and the other side doesn't. Sort of. The extra week off could be huge for Hundley, but the sims have more faith in a Detroit defense that'll look to pressure the QB.

  • NFL Preview: Giants vs Seahawks: Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Seattle Seahwawks at New York Giants: Analyst Preview & Pick

    After winning their first game of the season last week, the New York Giants (1-5) get set to host the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) this Sunday at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands. The Giants haven't had much go right this season, leading with the Odell Beckham Jr. injury. The Giants finally got a win, though, and that's already had an interesting impact on the betting market.

    Betting Line: Seattle Seahawks -4
    Moneyline Odds: Seahawks -210, Giants +175
    Total: 39.5

    Click Here for All of AccuScore's Week 7 NFL Picks

    Vegas Odds

    Seattle opened Week 7 as 8-point favorites. Over the past few days, the public has pushed that line down to -4, with the majority of the public overreacting to the Giants' win last week.

    The total has stay consistent, settling at 39.5 after opening at 39.

    Betting Trends
    • The Giants are 0-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games at home against a West Cost team.
    • The Giants are 2-10 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games as home underdogs.
    • The UNDER is 6-1 in the Giants' last seven games on field turf.

    What to Watch For
    Let's give credit where it's due -- the Giants pulled off an impressive win last week against the Denver Broncos as two-TD underdogs.

    No Odell, no Brandon Marshall, and no Sterling Shepard. QB Eli Manning finished with just 128 yards through the air, but it was RB Orleans Darkwa who stole the show. Darkwa finished with 117 yards on the ground against the No.1 run defense in the league.

    Darkwa is projected to finish Sunday's game with 21 rushing yards on 4 carries.

    Manning is projected to finish with 246 passing yards, averaging almost as many INTs (0.7) as TDs (0.9) in the sims.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFL Sunday: LA Rams at Ten Titans Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Sunday: Week 16 - LA Rams at Tennessee Titans

    The Los Angeles Rams may have secured the NFC West division title last week with their road win in Seattle, but they'll be looking to keep this remarkable season going on the right track as they head to Tennessee for a matchup with the Titans. These two sides haven't played each other since 2013, when the Rams won 28-21 still representing the city of St. Louis.

    All of AccuScore's NFL picks
    Our computer has simulated every game 10,000 times like it does every week. Entering Week 16, the computer is 118-93-11, +1460 profit on all Over/Under picks this season: Week 16 NFL picks

    Vegas Odds
    The spread has stayed steady since the Rams opened as 6.5-point favorites. The total dropped about 1.5 points in most books since opening at 49.

    Betting Line: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 Total:47.5

    At the time of publication, 68 percent of the public were laying the points and picking the Rams.

    63 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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    What to Watch For
    Playoff Picture: Mariota finished last week's 25-23 loss to the San Francisco 49ers completing 23-of-33 passes for 241 yards and 2 TDs. Mariota connected successfully with seven different receivers.

    Mariota is projected to finish with 221 passing yards, 1 TD, and 31 rushing yards on 4 attempts.

    Runnin' Wild: Rams RB Todd Gurley had himself a game last week, finishing with 4 TDs and 152 yards on 21 carries. The Rams dominated the Seahawks in Seattle, winning 42-7, and Gurley showed why he's one of the best as he went practically untouched on a 57-yard run. Tennessee is solid against the run, but it's nothing Gurley can't handle.

    Gurley is projected to finish with 116 yards on 18-to-19 carries and 1 TD.

    Analyst's Pick
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    Saturday's Analyst Preview: Packers vs Vikings Pick

  • NFL Thanksgiving 2017: Odds, Preview & Analyst Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Thanksgiving 2017: Vikings at Lions

    We've got a fun, competitive matchup to kick off Thanksgiving Thursday as the Minnesota Vikings -- fresh off a convincing 24-7 win over the LA Rams -- host the Detroit Lions in a matchup that has some direct implications to the playoff picture. The Lions, known for always playing on Thanksgiving day, have won their last four matchups on this holiday, including a 16-13 win over Minnesota last season.

    Vegas Odds
    The game actually opened as a pick 'em before the Vikings settled in as 3-point favorites. The total hasn't seen much movement since opening at 45.5.

    All Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks: Click Here for All of AccuScore's Week 7 NFL Picks

    Betting Line: Minnesota Vikings -3
    Total: 45

    At the time of publication, about 60 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Minny.

    65 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Vikings' last eight games vs the Lions.
    • The Vikings are 2-5 straight up (SU) in their last seven games on the road vs the Lions.
    • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Vikings' last 10 games on the road vs the Lions.

    What to Watch For

    These two sides played back in Week 4 when the Lions won 14-7 in a matchup that featured some solid defense. The Vikings ended up turning the ball over three times in that game -- resulting in 11 points for Detroit.

    The Lions are projected to have 1 takeaway Thursday, with a slightly higher probability of a pick than a recovered fumble.

    We've got one team that's absolutely rolling, and another that's still in the thick of things. So why does AccuScore think the Lions have a good chance at pulling off the upset this week?

    A lot of this comes down to some recent streaks. The Lions have beaten the Vikings three straight times and Detroit has won four straight on Thanksgiving. The Lions also have covered the spread in five straight Thanksgiving games. Add in the fact that they're on a three-game winning streak, and the momentum just adds more confidence to the pick.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFL Thursday: Steelers vs Titans Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers: TNF Analyst Pick

    The Pittsburgh Steelers haven't necessarily looked dominant in every quarter of every game, but they are what their record says they are. 7-2 sitting atop the AFC with the New England Patriots. The Steelers will look for their fifth straight win when they host the Tennessee Titans Thursday night to kick off Week 11 in the NFL.

    Vegas Odds
    There has been practically no movement on the spread or total since they opened Monday night.

    Betting Line: Pittsburgh Steelers -7
    Total: 44

    At the time of publication, the public was split even on the spread. 60 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    AccuScore has all picks for Thursday & Week 11, including a free forecast with picks, trends and player projections: All of AccuScore's NFL Picks

    Betting Trends
    -Tennessee is 0-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last four games in November. -Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS vs teams with a winning record. The Titans are 6-3. -The UNDER is 7-0 in the Steelers' last seven games after recording fewer than than 90 rushing yards rushing in their previous game.They had just 88 rushing yards (80 by Le'veon Bell) last week against the Indianapolis Colts.

    What to Watch For
    Pittsburgh improved to 5-1 on the road last week after coming back from down 14 to win 20-17 over the Colts. QB Ben Roethlisberger enters Week 11 completing about 61 percetn of his passes with a passer rating of 83.8 -- his lowest in almost a decade. He clearly comes through, though, when it counts the most.

    Roethlesberger is projected to finish with 269 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages just 0.6 INTs per simulation.

    Titans RB DeMarco Murray finally had himself a game in Week 10, finish with 2 TDs to help Tennessee win 24-20. Although he's coming off a strong performance where he carried the ball 14 times and added 4 receptions, he has only gone over 14 rushes once this season. He's a goal-line threat, though, and there's always value in that.

    He's projected to finish with 60 yards on 16 carries. He averages just 0.3 TDs per sim.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFL Week 17: Cowboys at Eagles - Analyst Pick & Preview

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles: NFL Week 17 Analyst Pick

    There might not be any Thursday night action in the NFL for Week 17, but Sunday's slate has plenty for bettors out there. The Cowboys and Eagles take center stage at 1 PM Eastern at Lincoln Financial Field . Let's take a closer look at where the value is in a matchup in which the two teams have nothing to play for.

    Vegas Odds
    There hasn't been much movement on the spread or total since the lines opened. The Cowboys opened as 2-point favorites before settling in a half-point higher; the total dropped a couple points since opening at 43.

    Betting Line: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
    Total: 41

    At the time of publication, 54 percent of the public were laying the points and picking the Eagles.

    61 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    All of AccuScore's 2017 NFL Picks
    • Spreads/Totals/Moneyline Picks: +2583 profit

    Our computer has simulated every game 10,000 times like it does every week…Week 17 NFL picks

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    Betting Trends
    • The Cowboys are 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games on the road.
    • The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Eagles.

    What to Watch For
    Dak vs the Pass Rush: Dak Prescott finished Week 16 against the Seattle Seahawks with 182 yards and 2 INTs struggling to get into any sort of rhythm with a set of weapons that seem to be more bark than bite. Prescott lost left tackle Tyron Smith early in last week's matchup, and that doesn't bode well for him this week - regardless of how motivated the Eagles are to win this week. The Eagles rank No. 2 on the season in opponent incompletions per game.

    Prescott is projected to finish with 262 passing yards and 2 TDs, to go along with 21 rushing yards on 3 carries.

    Eagles on the Ground: Ajayi finished Week 16 with 52 rushing yards on 14 carries and caught two-of-three passes for 21 yards and 1 TD. He did have a fumble to go along with production, though, in the 19-10 win over Oakland. He started the game off with a bang, catching a 17-yard TD on just the Eagles' second drive. That was unfortunately marred by the fumble later on, but Ajayi has been more-than-satisfactory since putting on the Philly uniform. He's averaged nearly 15 touches over the last four games, but that sort of action could be in jeopardy given the team has nothing substantial to play for in Week 17.

    Ajayi is projected to finish with 68 yards on 13 carries, but it's teammate LeGarrette Blount that has a slightly higher probability at finding the end zone. Blount averages 0.6 TDs per simulated matchup, compared to Ajayi's 0.5.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFL Week 17: Dolphins vs Bills: Odds, Trends & Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills: NFL Week 17 Analyst Pick

    The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills will meet up for the second time in three weeks this Sunday with the home side looking to play spoiler. Buffalo – sitting at 8-7 – still have a shot at the postseason and will be treating Sunday’s matchup as a must-win.

    We’ve got an interesting forecast in this one as Vegas odds and AccuScore sim data are on opposite sides of the money line.

    Vegas Odds
    There hasn't been much movement on the spread or total since the lines opened. The total has stayed consistent since opening at 42.5, and the Bills moved up just a half-point since opening as 2.5-point favorites.

    Betting Line: Buffalo Bills -3
    Total: 42.5

    At the time of publication, 61 percent of the public were laying the points and picking the Bills.

    52 percent of the action on the total has been on the UNDER.

    All of AccuScore's 2017 NFL Picks
    • Spreads/Totals/Moneyline Picks: +2583 profit

    Our computer has simulated every game 10,000 times like it does every week…Week 17 NFL picks

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    Betting Trends
    • Buffalo is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games on the road.

    • Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last six games vs Miami on the road.

    What to Watch For
    Shady Carrying the Load: In last week’s 37-16 loss to the New England Patriots, Bills RB LeSean McCoy rushed 17 times for 71 yards and caught five targets for 76 yards. The Bills actually held a 16-13 lead early in the second half before the game got out of hand. Given the fact Buffalo is still in playoff contention, all signs point to McCoy having another heavy workload this week.

    McCoy is projected to finish with 90 rushing yards on 19 carries, along with 40 receiving yards on four-to-five catches.

    To Start or Not to Start: Dolphins head coach Adam Gase confirmed that QB Jay Cutler will in fact start Sunday's game – but may not necessarily finish the contest. At 6-9, Miami doesn’t have much to play for other than ruining the hopes of a divisional rival. And given the notion that Cutler will be a free agent this summer, the coaching staff just might play it safe and rest veterans. Two weeks ago against Buffalo, Cutler finished with 274 passing yards, 0 TDs and 3 INTs.

    Cutler is projected to finish with 208 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFL Week 2 Picks - Analyst

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Sunday – Analyst’s NFL Week 2 Picks

    There are multiple matchups on this Sunday's Week 2 NFL slate that feature Vegas and AccuScore on different sides of the money line.

    Let's take a closer look at a couple of these games, and the value AccuScore sim data is providing. Make sure to check out all our simulations because these aren't the only matchups in which our data and Vegas odds differ on the favorite(s): All of AccuScore’s NFL Week 2 Picks.

    Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

    At the time of publication, the Falcons are 3-point favorites with the total set at 55. Atlanta's listed at -155 on the money line, indicating a 60-to-61 percent chance of winning.

    AccuScore sim data, however, has the Packers as slight road favorites.

    Green Bay wins about 54 percent of simulations; the sim data would have listed GB at -115, indicating a good amount of value on the +135 listed in Vegas. Those odds indicate about a 42 percent chance of winning.

    Why Green Bay? Atlanta is still calibrating to two new coordinators and Aaron Rodgers is pretty, pretty good at taking advantage of mistakes.

    Betting Trends
    • In two games vs GB last season, ATL QB Matt Ryan threw for 680 yards, 7 TDs and 0 INTs. He's projected to finish Sunday's game with 290 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.
    • The Packers are 6-14 against the spread (ATS) in their last 20 games against the NFC South.
    • The Falcons are 7-1 straight up (SU) and ATS in their last eight games in Week 2.

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    Washington Redskins @ Los Angeles Rams

    The Rams are slight favorites at home, laying 2.5 points at the time of publication and listed at -140 on the money line. The odds indicate about a 58.3 percent chance of winning for L.A.

    AccuScore simulations, however, are showing quite a bit of value on the visiting Washington roster. We've got a four-star (out of four) hot trend alert as the Redskins cover a 2.5-to-3-point spread in over 55 percent of simulations.

    They're listed at +120 on the money line in most books, indicating a 45 percent winning probability.

    The sims actually have Washington as the slight favorites, winning 52 percent of simulated matchups. The data would have listed Washington at -110, making a wager on them fairly attractive.

    Why Washington? Looking back at the last handful of games between the two franchises, the underdog is 10-4 ATS. Tough to go against a trend like that, especially with simulation data suggesting much of the same.

    Betting Trends
    • Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after an ATS loss.
    • Washington is 5-0 ATS after allowing less than 90 rushing yards.
    • Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against teams with winning records.
    • Washington is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road matchups.

    The Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record.

  • NFL Week 3: Top Betting Trends

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    Top AccuScore NFL Betting Trends: Week 3

    • All NFL Picks Against the Spread: 18-12-1, 60% +480
    • All NFL Picks Over/Under: 19-9-3, 68% +910
    After 2 Weeks: AccuScore’s NFL Picks (Spreads & Totals) – 37-21-4, 64% +1390

    After two weeks of the NFL season, AccuScore's picks are positive across the board, and our computer is off to a fast start. Totals appear to be the best bet of the early season, but picks against the spread have also bee positive thus far. The trends listed above refer to EVERY game of this young NFL season, meaning if you'd blindly wagered on AccuScore's totals and spread picks for EVERY game through two weeks, you'd be up +1,390. This assumes a 110-unit wager on each pick, so a win returns 100 units of profit and a wrong pick results in a 110 unit loss.

    All of AccuScore's NFL Picks - Week 3

    In addition to all picks being profitable, there are a few trends we've picked out that have been remarkably positive across the board. In particular, AFC vs NFC cross conference games have been notably accurate across the board for Moneyline picks, Spread picks and Totals picks. In addition, a couple other areas based on differentials between AccuScore and the Vegas lines have stood out. Check our AccuSore's Week 3 Hot Trends Below:

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    NFL Hot Trends: Week 3

    AFC vs NFC Matchups:
    -ATS Picks: 6-0-1, 100% +600
    -Totals Picks: 4-2-1, 67% +180
    -Moneyline picks: 7-0, 100%

    Home Team Favored by 7 or More Points:
    -ATS Picks: 5-2-0, 71% +280
    -Totals Picks: 5-1-1, 83% +390
    -Moneyline picks: 6-1, 86%

    AccuScore Sim & Vegas PS line Diff 2.0-2.5 points:
    -ATS Picks: 6-0, 100% +600
    -Totals Picks: 5-0-1, 100% +500

  • NFL: Colts vs Broncos - Preview & Expert Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Bronocos: Thursday Night Football Analyst Preview

    Week 15 in the NFL kicks off Thursday night in Indianapolis as the Colts host the Denver Broncos in a matchup that really has no impact on the postseason as both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. The two teams are a combined 2-15 straight up (SU) this year, and 4-13 against the spread (ATS).

    Not an easy one to pick when you've got two sub-par teams, but let's take a closer look at where the value is in this matchup.

    Vegas Odds

    There hasn't been a whole lot of movement since the lines opened, just about a half-point here and there depending on where you're looking. The Broncos opened as 3-point favorites before settling in at -2.5 in most books while the total had a similar half-point drop from 41.

    Betting Line: Denver Broncos -2.5
    Total: 40.5

    At the time of publication, 58 percent of the public were laying the points and taking the Broncos.

    52-plus percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    -Indy's last five games have gone UNDER the total.
    -The Broncos ended a 7-game ATS losing streak vs the Colts when they played last season.
    -The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven games when the Colts are home underdogs.

    What to Watch For

    Can Siemian Make It Happen?: Colts QB Trevor Siemian had his best game of the season last week against the New York Jets, throwing for 200 yards and 1 TD. That brings his TD-to-INT ratio on the season to 12-to-13. Not too surprising given the Colts' struggles at the QB spot, but WR Demaryius Thomas has just four TDs on the season, and zero games with over 100 yards.

    Siemian is projected to finish with 229 yards and 1 TD. Thomas is projected to finish with 47 yards on 4 receptions.

    Colts Offense Often a No-Show: The offensive side of the ball has been absolutely horrendous this year for Indy. They're averaging just 16.3 points per game, and Brissett has been average at best. Well, maybe slightly above average since he does have 11 TDs to 7 INTs on the season.

    Brissett is projected to finish with 255 yards and 1 TD. He averages 0.6 INTs per sim, so there's a pretty good chance he gets one in the game, but would take the UNDER on any prop bet that's over 1.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • Ravens v Texans Free Analyst Pick: Cyber Monday NFL

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Ravens vs Texans: Cyber Monday Night Football

    Week 12 in the NFL wraps up Monday night in Baltimore as the 5-5 Ravens host the 4-6 Houston Texans at M&T Bank Stadium. Both teams started the season projecting to be a playoff contender; and both are on the bubble heading into Week 12.

    Vegas Odds

    Betting Line:Baltimore Ravens -7
    Total: 38

    At the time of publication, about 56 percent of the public were laying the points at home and picking BAL.

    59 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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    Betting Trends
    -The Texans are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games. -The total has gone OVER in six of the Ravens' last eight games. -The Texans are 2-7 SU in their last nine games against the Ravens.

    What to Watch For
    Tom Savage has been pretty, pretty bad this season filling in as the starting QB. His 4:3 TD:INT ratio is nothing to boast about and with Lamar Miller as the feature back, he won't have much of a safety net.

    Savage is projected to finish with 245 passing yards and 1 TD. He averages about twice as many TDs per sim (1.3) as he does INTs (0.6).

    Miller is projected to finish with 55 rushing yards on 16 carries and 0 TDs. He averages just 0.3 Tds per sim.

    The Texans defense -- usually known for its prowess with a healthy roster -- is in the bottom half of the league allowing 5.7 yards per play. Sure JJ Watt being injured is a big deal, but the loss of middle linebacker Brian Cushing has been just as crucial. They've still managed to be solid against the run though, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry. Teams have only scored 3 rushing TDs on the Texans; Houston has given up the most passing TDs though.

    The Houston defense is projected to have at least one takeaway Monday night.

    Analyst's Pick
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    Analyst Pick: The OVER.

    The total has gone OVER in five of the Ravens' last six games.