Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFL Sunday – Analyst’s NFL Week 2 Picks
There are multiple matchups on this Sunday's Week 2 NFL slate that feature Vegas and AccuScore on different sides of the money line.
Let's take a closer look at a couple of these games, and the value AccuScore sim data is providing. Make sure to check out all our simulations because these aren't the only matchups in which our data and Vegas odds differ on the favorite(s): All of AccuScore’s NFL Week 2 Picks.
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
At the time of publication, the Falcons are 3-point favorites with the total set at 55. Atlanta's listed at -155 on the money line, indicating a 60-to-61 percent chance of winning.
AccuScore sim data, however, has the Packers as slight road favorites.
Green Bay wins about 54 percent of simulations; the sim data would have listed GB at -115, indicating a good amount of value on the +135 listed in Vegas. Those odds indicate about a 42 percent chance of winning.
Why Green Bay? Atlanta is still calibrating to two new coordinators and Aaron Rodgers is pretty, pretty good at taking advantage of mistakes.
• In two games vs GB last season, ATL QB Matt Ryan threw for 680 yards, 7 TDs and 0 INTs. He's projected to finish Sunday's game with 290 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.
• The Packers are 6-14 against the spread (ATS) in their last 20 games against the NFC South.
• The Falcons are 7-1 straight up (SU) and ATS in their last eight games in Week 2.
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Washington Redskins @ Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are slight favorites at home, laying 2.5 points at the time of publication and listed at -140 on the money line. The odds indicate about a 58.3 percent chance of winning for L.A.
AccuScore simulations, however, are showing quite a bit of value on the visiting Washington roster. We've got a four-star (out of four) hot trend alert as the Redskins cover a 2.5-to-3-point spread in over 55 percent of simulations.
They're listed at +120 on the money line in most books, indicating a 45 percent winning probability.
The sims actually have Washington as the slight favorites, winning 52 percent of simulated matchups. The data would have listed Washington at -110, making a wager on them fairly attractive.
Why Washington? Looking back at the last handful of games between the two franchises, the underdog is 10-4 ATS. Tough to go against a trend like that, especially with simulation data suggesting much of the same.
• Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after an ATS loss.
• Washington is 5-0 ATS after allowing less than 90 rushing yards.
• Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against teams with winning records.
• Washington is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road matchups.
The Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record.