• Free Analyst Pick: Chiefs vs Redskins on MNF

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Monday Night Football: Chiefs vs Redskins - Analyst Pick

    We've got a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend alert in this Monday night's matchup at Arrowhead Stadium between the Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs opened as 9-point favorites before settling down at 7 Sunday afternoon. The total's stayed consistent at 49 or 49.5.

    AccuScore’s Full MNF Forecast & Picks

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore SIm Data

    One thing's for sure -- the Chiefs are fairly heavy favorites. Vegas odds have the Chiefs getting -340 odds on the money line, indicating a 77.27 percent chance of winning. Kansas City wins 77.3. percent of simulated matchups, on par with the probabilities suggested by Vegas odds.

    The spread's where the value is at in this matchup. The sim data actually has the home side favored by 10 points, indicating a whole lot of value on the 7-point spread.

    The Chiefs cover a 7-point spread in 55.4 percent of simulations, a four-star AccuScore hot trend. The 55.4 percent probability would have had the odds at -125, showing the value on the -110 most books are offering for the 7-point spread.

    AccuScore Betting Trends
    • All Totals Picks: 35-23-4, 60.3% +970
    • All Picks Against the Spread: 33-26-3 55.9% +440
    • All Side Value Picks: 32-38, +614
    • All Side Value, Spread & Totals Picks: +2024 profit

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    Top Non-AccuScore Betting Trends
    • The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games.
    • The Chiefs are 5-1 straight up (SU) in their last 6 games.
    • The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a SU win.
    • The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Chiefs' last 6 games.
    • The total has gone OVER in 17 of the Redskins' last 24 games.

    What to Watch For

    Washington QB Kirk Cousins was magnificent in last week's victory with 365 passing yards and three TDs, completing 25 of his 30 attempts.

    He's projected to finish Monday night's game with 298 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. In the 22 percent of simulated matchups in which the Redskins win, Cousins averages 2.12 TDs to 0.44 INTs; in the losses, he's at 1.62 TDs to 0.82 INTs.

    Free Analyst's Pick

    The favorite between these two sides has covered ATS in four of the last five meetings, and the total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings.

    We'll go with the Chiefs covering, and the OVER. Safe play might be to buy a half-point on the 7-point spread to make it 6.5.

  • Jaguars vs Texans: Analyst Pick - NFL Week 1

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Week 1 Analyst Pick: Jaguars vs Texans

    Despite the craziness of Hurricane Harvey, this Sunday's matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans is still scheduled to be played. The Texans head into their Week 1 matchup as 5.5-point favorites with the total set at 39.5.

    All ofAccuScore’s Week 1 NFL Expert Picks

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sim Data

    The Texans opened as 4.5-point favorites, moving to 5.5 on Friday. AccuScore simulations, however, have the line at just 3, indicating a pick on the Jags to cover.

    The Jaguars cover a 5.5-point spread in about 61 percent of simulations, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. Most books in Vegas are offering Jacksonville +5.5 at -110, indicating about a 52 percent chance of happening.

    The Jags are getting +210 on the money line, indicating about a 32 percent chance of happening. Jacksonville wins 46 percent of sims. AccuScore data would have listed their money line odds at about +115 to +120, offering a whole lot of value on the +210.

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    What to Watch For

    Blake Bortles is projected to start for the Jags and that's actually a fairly important variable in projecting a more competitive matchup than do Vegas odds. He struggled overall with turnovers last season, but had an above-average performance against Houston. In two matchups, he fnished with 357 total yards and 2 TDs and 2 INTs.

    Bortles is projected to to finish with 199 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and a passer rating of 95.2.

    Key Betting Trend

    The Jaguars are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five road games vs the Texans.

    Analyst's Pick

    The Jaguars are 1-9 straight up (SU) in their last 10 road games. They're also 5-5 ATS in those same games. We'll take the Jags to cover late.

  • NFL MNF: Week 2 - Giants vs Lions Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    All of AccuScore’s NFL Monday Night Football Picks

    Monday Night Football: Giants vs Lions

    It's Week 2 and we're back to a normal weekly slate of games which means only one MNF matchup from now on -- this version featuring the Detroit Lions and New York Giants.

    The Giants are a 3-point favorite after opening as 4.5-point favorites. The total's settled at 42 after opening at 43.5.

    What to Watch For

    New York's defense actually had a strong performance against Dallas in Week 1. They put pressure on a mobile QB and get to face a much less-frustrating QB in that manner in Week 2.

    The Giants held the Cowboys to about 5.5 yards per play in Week 1; Dallas averaged 6 yards per play last season.

    AccuScore NFL Betting Trends:

    • Against the Spread Picks: 18-11-1, +590
    • Totals Picks: 19-8-3, +1020
    • Moneyline Picks: 21-9, +263
    • Side Value Picks: 18-11, +695
    • ALL AccuScore Picks - Profit: +2,568

    Non-AccuScore Betting Trends

    • The Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC East.
    • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Lions’ last 12 games.
    • The Giants are 2-5 SU in their last seven games at night.

    Analyst's Pick

    Four-star (out of four) hot trend alert against the spread: Need we say any more?

    Note: Our analyst is 3-1 in his NFL analyst picks this season with a total profit of +222 units, assuming 100 unit wager on each pick...

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  • NFL TNF Analyst Pick: Eagles at Panthers - Week 6

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Thursday - Panthers vs Eagles

    Thursday night NFL action in this week's slate features a pair of 4-1 teams looking to keep momentum trending the right way. The Panthers are slight 3-to-3.5-point favorites, getting the nod as the home side in what's projected as a tight matchup.

    Date/Time: Thursday, 10/12 at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
    Spread: Panthers -3.5
    Total: 45.5

    Vegas Odds
    There really hasn't been a whole lot of movement on the line, Vegas and the public expecting a close matchup Thursday night.

    The line opened at -3 for Carolina, moving up just a half-point in some books across Vegas. Same for the total, up a half-point to 45.5.

    Betting Trends
    • The Eagles are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games.
    • The Eagles are 6-1 straight up (SU) in their last seven games.
    • The Eagles 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
    • The total has gone OVER seven of the Eagles' last 10 games.
    • The Panthers are 1-3-2 in their last six games at home.

    Top AccuScore Trends: After Week 5
    - All NFL Picks vs the Spread: 43-30-4, 58.9% +1,000
    - All Side Value Picks: 44-31, 58.7% +1800
    - All Totals Picks: 44-29-4, 60.3% +1210
    All NFL Spread, Totals & Side Value Picks: +4010 profit!

    All of AccuScore's Week 6 NFL Picks

    What to Watch For
    Trouble on the O-line: As John Breech of CBS Sports first pointed out, the absence of offensive lineman Lane Johnson has the potential to be a huge game changer this week; Johnson suffered a concussion in Sunday's game against the Arizona Cardinals and is projected to be out Thursday night on a short week.

    Why's that such a big deal? Johnson has been in the lineup for 11 of Wentz's 21 career starts.

    In those 11 games, Wentz has a 9-2 record, 65.7 completion percentage, 2,766 yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 99.9 passer rating.

    He went 2-8 in the games without Johnson, looking like a completely different product on the field. In those 10 games, he went 2-8 and threw twice as many INTs (12) as TDs (6).

    Wentz is projected to finish Thursday's game with 261 yards, averaging 1.3 TDs to 0.8 INTs in sims.

    Ground Game: Philly's run defense has actually been solid this year -- containing the likes of Melvin Gordon and Kareem Hunt so far this season. The Eagles gave up some late yardage on the ground to the Chiefs and Chargers, but for the most part have been consistently above average in that category.

    The Panthers are projected to finish with at least 1 rushing TD.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFL Week 2 Picks - Analyst

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Sunday – Analyst’s NFL Week 2 Picks

    There are multiple matchups on this Sunday's Week 2 NFL slate that feature Vegas and AccuScore on different sides of the money line.

    Let's take a closer look at a couple of these games, and the value AccuScore sim data is providing. Make sure to check out all our simulations because these aren't the only matchups in which our data and Vegas odds differ on the favorite(s): All of AccuScore’s NFL Week 2 Picks.

    Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

    At the time of publication, the Falcons are 3-point favorites with the total set at 55. Atlanta's listed at -155 on the money line, indicating a 60-to-61 percent chance of winning.

    AccuScore sim data, however, has the Packers as slight road favorites.

    Green Bay wins about 54 percent of simulations; the sim data would have listed GB at -115, indicating a good amount of value on the +135 listed in Vegas. Those odds indicate about a 42 percent chance of winning.

    Why Green Bay? Atlanta is still calibrating to two new coordinators and Aaron Rodgers is pretty, pretty good at taking advantage of mistakes.

    Betting Trends
    • In two games vs GB last season, ATL QB Matt Ryan threw for 680 yards, 7 TDs and 0 INTs. He's projected to finish Sunday's game with 290 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.
    • The Packers are 6-14 against the spread (ATS) in their last 20 games against the NFC South.
    • The Falcons are 7-1 straight up (SU) and ATS in their last eight games in Week 2.

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    Washington Redskins @ Los Angeles Rams

    The Rams are slight favorites at home, laying 2.5 points at the time of publication and listed at -140 on the money line. The odds indicate about a 58.3 percent chance of winning for L.A.

    AccuScore simulations, however, are showing quite a bit of value on the visiting Washington roster. We've got a four-star (out of four) hot trend alert as the Redskins cover a 2.5-to-3-point spread in over 55 percent of simulations.

    They're listed at +120 on the money line in most books, indicating a 45 percent winning probability.

    The sims actually have Washington as the slight favorites, winning 52 percent of simulated matchups. The data would have listed Washington at -110, making a wager on them fairly attractive.

    Why Washington? Looking back at the last handful of games between the two franchises, the underdog is 10-4 ATS. Tough to go against a trend like that, especially with simulation data suggesting much of the same.

    Betting Trends
    • Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after an ATS loss.
    • Washington is 5-0 ATS after allowing less than 90 rushing yards.
    • Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against teams with winning records.
    • Washington is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road matchups.

    The Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record.

  • Thursday Night Football: Pats vs Bucs - Analyst Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    All of AccuScore’s Week 5NFL Picks

    The New England Patriots might be on the road to kick off Week 5, but they're still getting about six of every ten tickets in books across Vegas. The Patriots are 2-2 straight up (SU), but have only covered just once this season. The Bucs are 2-1 SU and 1-2 against the spread (ATS).

    Vegas Odds: Patriots vs Tampa Bay

    The line opened up for the Pats at -4, but quickly creeped up to 5.5 or 6.0 depending on when and where you're getting it. Westgate has it at -5.5, but MGM has up at -6.

    Fun Facts

    New England and Tampa Bay have given up a combined 851.1 total yards of offense per game. The biggest total in Thursday Night Football history is 56.5. The total is at 55.5 at the time of publication. Betting Trends

    The last 5 games -- league-wide -- that closed with a total of 54 or higher all went OVER. The total was at 55.5 at the time of publication. [Goes against AccuScore sim data.] The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] New England is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] Tampa Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]

    What to Watch For

    The rushing attack for New England has had some issues this season -- averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season. RB Mike Gillislee has four TDs, but is still averaging just 3.4 yards per carry.

    Gillislee is projected to finish with 47 yards on 7 carries. He averages 0.4 TDs per sim.

    Analyst's Pick

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