• Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles: NFL Sunday Night Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Cowboys vs Eagles: Sunday Night NFL Pick

    Sunday night features an intriguing matchup on the NFL slate as the 5-4 Dallas Cowboys host the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium. Philly will look to avenge their OT loss the last time they were on the road against Dallas.

    Vegas Odds
    There has been very little movement on the total since it oped at 47, but the spread shifted two-to-three points depending on where you're looking. The Eagles opened as 3-point favorites before settling down at -5.5.

    Betting Line: Philadelphia Eagles -5.5/-6
    Total: 47.5/48

    At the time of publication, about 66 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Philly.

    68 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    - The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys' last six games.
    - The Cowboys are 9-3 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games at home.
    - The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys' last six games at home.

    All of AccuScore's NFL Picks, including a free preview of the Lions vs the Bears... All of AccuScore's NFL Sunday Picks

    What to Watch For
    While the Eagles are heavy favorites in Vegas and in the public's eye, AccuScore sim data has the Cowboys actually winning over 50 percent of simulations. How could our data and Vegas differ so much in their projections?

    The Cowboys have the second-best rushing attack at home and the variables seem to be weighing that statistic heavily.

    Alfred Morris is projected to finish with 71 yards on 16 carries; Darren McFadden is projected to finish with 30 yards on 7 carries; Dak Prescott is projected to finish with close to 40 yards on 5 attempts. Prescott has the highest probability of all Cowboys to run it into the end zone.

    With the eye test, Philly looks unbeatable. On paper, though, things aren't as perfect. They only have a +6 turnover margin, with Carson Wentz holding a 23:5 TD:INT ratio.

    In AccuScore sims, turnovers play the biggest factor -- with Dallas actually winning 67 percent of sims in which they commit fewer turnovers.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • Free Analyst Pick: Chiefs vs Redskins on MNF

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Monday Night Football: Chiefs vs Redskins - Analyst Pick

    We've got a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend alert in this Monday night's matchup at Arrowhead Stadium between the Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs opened as 9-point favorites before settling down at 7 Sunday afternoon. The total's stayed consistent at 49 or 49.5.

    AccuScore’s Full MNF Forecast & Picks

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore SIm Data

    One thing's for sure -- the Chiefs are fairly heavy favorites. Vegas odds have the Chiefs getting -340 odds on the money line, indicating a 77.27 percent chance of winning. Kansas City wins 77.3. percent of simulated matchups, on par with the probabilities suggested by Vegas odds.

    The spread's where the value is at in this matchup. The sim data actually has the home side favored by 10 points, indicating a whole lot of value on the 7-point spread.

    The Chiefs cover a 7-point spread in 55.4 percent of simulations, a four-star AccuScore hot trend. The 55.4 percent probability would have had the odds at -125, showing the value on the -110 most books are offering for the 7-point spread.

    AccuScore Betting Trends
    • All Totals Picks: 35-23-4, 60.3% +970
    • All Picks Against the Spread: 33-26-3 55.9% +440
    • All Side Value Picks: 32-38, +614
    • All Side Value, Spread & Totals Picks: +2024 profit

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    Top Non-AccuScore Betting Trends
    • The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games.
    • The Chiefs are 5-1 straight up (SU) in their last 6 games.
    • The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a SU win.
    • The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Chiefs' last 6 games.
    • The total has gone OVER in 17 of the Redskins' last 24 games.

    What to Watch For

    Washington QB Kirk Cousins was magnificent in last week's victory with 365 passing yards and three TDs, completing 25 of his 30 attempts.

    He's projected to finish Monday night's game with 298 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. In the 22 percent of simulated matchups in which the Redskins win, Cousins averages 2.12 TDs to 0.44 INTs; in the losses, he's at 1.62 TDs to 0.82 INTs.

    Free Analyst's Pick

    The favorite between these two sides has covered ATS in four of the last five meetings, and the total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings.

    We'll go with the Chiefs covering, and the OVER. Safe play might be to buy a half-point on the 7-point spread to make it 6.5.

  • Jaguars vs Texans: Analyst Pick - NFL Week 1

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    NFL Week 1 Analyst Pick: Jaguars vs Texans

    Despite the craziness of Hurricane Harvey, this Sunday's matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans is still scheduled to be played. The Texans head into their Week 1 matchup as 5.5-point favorites with the total set at 39.5.

    All ofAccuScore’s Week 1 NFL Expert Picks

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sim Data

    The Texans opened as 4.5-point favorites, moving to 5.5 on Friday. AccuScore simulations, however, have the line at just 3, indicating a pick on the Jags to cover.

    The Jaguars cover a 5.5-point spread in about 61 percent of simulations, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. Most books in Vegas are offering Jacksonville +5.5 at -110, indicating about a 52 percent chance of happening.

    The Jags are getting +210 on the money line, indicating about a 32 percent chance of happening. Jacksonville wins 46 percent of sims. AccuScore data would have listed their money line odds at about +115 to +120, offering a whole lot of value on the +210.

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    What to Watch For

    Blake Bortles is projected to start for the Jags and that's actually a fairly important variable in projecting a more competitive matchup than do Vegas odds. He struggled overall with turnovers last season, but had an above-average performance against Houston. In two matchups, he fnished with 357 total yards and 2 TDs and 2 INTs.

    Bortles is projected to to finish with 199 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and a passer rating of 95.2.

    Key Betting Trend

    The Jaguars are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five road games vs the Texans.

    Analyst's Pick

    The Jaguars are 1-9 straight up (SU) in their last 10 road games. They're also 5-5 ATS in those same games. We'll take the Jags to cover late.

  • NFL Analyst Pick: Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers: Analyst Pick

    Week 10 of the NFL wraps up at Bank of America stadium as the Carolina Panthers host the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins head into the matchup after two straight losses -- against the Ravens and Raiders -- while the Panthers enter MNF after two straight wins over the Buccaneers and Falcons.

    Vegas Odds
    Carolina opened up as 10-point favorites before settling at -9. The total dropped to 38/38.5 after opening at 39.5.

    Betting Line: Carolina Panthers -9
    Total: 38 / 38.5

    At the time of publication, about 54 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Dolphins. 61 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    -The Dolphins are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games when playing Carolina.
    -The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Carolina.

    All of AccuScore's Monday Night Picks & Projections: All of AccuScore's NFL Picks

    What to Watch For
    Following RB Jay Ajayi's trade to Philadelphia, Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams shared the load to combined for 86 yards and no TDs in Week 9. Miami has yet to score a rushing TD this entire season.

    Drake is projected to finish with 51 yards on 4 carries -- averaging 0.4 TDs per sim. Williams is projected to finish with 25 yards on 6 carries -- averaging 0.2 TDs per sim. Even both of them combined don't provide much confidence in the Dolphins scoring on the ground this week.

    17 has been the magic number for Carolina over the past few weeks, with three straight opponents scoring exactly that.

    The Dolphins are projected to score 16 points Monday night.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFL MNF: Packers vs Lions - Free Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    Packers vs Lions: Monday Night Football - Free Analyst Pick

    We weren't very accurate with our Sunday analyst game pick, but we're ready to make up for that loss with Monday Night Football and a FREE Analyst Pick. The Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers -- coming off a bye week -- host the Detroit Lions in a divisional matchup.

    Vegas Odds

    The matchup actually opened as a pick 'em before the Lions settled in as 2-point road favrotites. The total creeped up a half-point to 43.5.

    Betting Line: Detroit Lions -2
    Total: 43.5

    At the time of publication, about 63 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Lions. 60 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    -The Packers are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 6 games.
    -The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Lions' last 18 games.

    AccuScore has picks against the spread, on the moneyline, Totals and player projections for every game...
    All of AccuScore's Monday Night NFL Picks

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    What to Watch For

    The Lions are in the top half of the league in turnover margin, with QB Matt Stafford recording zero INTs on the season so far. Their defense ranks No. 3 in takeaways.

    Detroit's defense is projeted to force two turnovers Monday night, with the simulations leaning towards two INTs as opposed to any forced fumbles.

    Looking at this matchup, the deciding factor just might come down to how well the Lions defend against the run. They're No. 6 in the league in containing the ground attacking, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry (ypc).

    The three main backs for Green Bay -- Aaron Jones, Ty Montgomery, and Aaron Ripkowski -- are projected to finish with a combined 126 rushing yards. Each player averages at least 4.5 ypc in the sims.

    With Green Bay coming off a bye, QB Brett Hundley had an extra week to prepare for this matchup. Given how he's been playing in place of Rodgers, it's much needed preparation time. This by itself could be a huge factor knowing the the Lions are coming off a physical game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

    Hundley is projected to finish with 163 yards, 2 INTs and 1 TD.

    Analyst's Pick

    Lions cover on the road.

    It's not the most glamorous pick, but one side has a QB and the other side doesn't. Sort of. The extra week off could be huge for Hundley, but the sims have more faith in a Detroit defense that'll look to pressure the QB.

  • NFL MNF: Week 2 - Giants vs Lions Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    All of AccuScore’s NFL Monday Night Football Picks

    Monday Night Football: Giants vs Lions

    It's Week 2 and we're back to a normal weekly slate of games which means only one MNF matchup from now on -- this version featuring the Detroit Lions and New York Giants.

    The Giants are a 3-point favorite after opening as 4.5-point favorites. The total's settled at 42 after opening at 43.5.

    What to Watch For

    New York's defense actually had a strong performance against Dallas in Week 1. They put pressure on a mobile QB and get to face a much less-frustrating QB in that manner in Week 2.

    The Giants held the Cowboys to about 5.5 yards per play in Week 1; Dallas averaged 6 yards per play last season.

    AccuScore NFL Betting Trends:

    • Against the Spread Picks: 18-11-1, +590
    • Totals Picks: 19-8-3, +1020
    • Moneyline Picks: 21-9, +263
    • Side Value Picks: 18-11, +695
    • ALL AccuScore Picks - Profit: +2,568

    Non-AccuScore Betting Trends

    • The Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC East.
    • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Lions’ last 12 games.
    • The Giants are 2-5 SU in their last seven games at night.

    Analyst's Pick

    Four-star (out of four) hot trend alert against the spread: Need we say any more?

    Note: Our analyst is 3-1 in his NFL analyst picks this season with a total profit of +222 units, assuming 100 unit wager on each pick...

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  • NFL Preview: Giants vs Seahawks: Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Seattle Seahwawks at New York Giants: Analyst Preview & Pick

    After winning their first game of the season last week, the New York Giants (1-5) get set to host the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) this Sunday at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands. The Giants haven't had much go right this season, leading with the Odell Beckham Jr. injury. The Giants finally got a win, though, and that's already had an interesting impact on the betting market.

    Betting Line: Seattle Seahawks -4
    Moneyline Odds: Seahawks -210, Giants +175
    Total: 39.5

    Click Here for All of AccuScore's Week 7 NFL Picks

    Vegas Odds

    Seattle opened Week 7 as 8-point favorites. Over the past few days, the public has pushed that line down to -4, with the majority of the public overreacting to the Giants' win last week.

    The total has stay consistent, settling at 39.5 after opening at 39.

    Betting Trends
    • The Giants are 0-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games at home against a West Cost team.
    • The Giants are 2-10 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games as home underdogs.
    • The UNDER is 6-1 in the Giants' last seven games on field turf.

    What to Watch For
    Let's give credit where it's due -- the Giants pulled off an impressive win last week against the Denver Broncos as two-TD underdogs.

    No Odell, no Brandon Marshall, and no Sterling Shepard. QB Eli Manning finished with just 128 yards through the air, but it was RB Orleans Darkwa who stole the show. Darkwa finished with 117 yards on the ground against the No.1 run defense in the league.

    Darkwa is projected to finish Sunday's game with 21 rushing yards on 4 carries.

    Manning is projected to finish with 246 passing yards, averaging almost as many INTs (0.7) as TDs (0.9) in the sims.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFL Thanksgiving 2017: Odds, Preview & Analyst Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Thanksgiving 2017: Vikings at Lions

    We've got a fun, competitive matchup to kick off Thanksgiving Thursday as the Minnesota Vikings -- fresh off a convincing 24-7 win over the LA Rams -- host the Detroit Lions in a matchup that has some direct implications to the playoff picture. The Lions, known for always playing on Thanksgiving day, have won their last four matchups on this holiday, including a 16-13 win over Minnesota last season.

    Vegas Odds
    The game actually opened as a pick 'em before the Vikings settled in as 3-point favorites. The total hasn't seen much movement since opening at 45.5.

    All Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks: Click Here for All of AccuScore's Week 7 NFL Picks

    Betting Line: Minnesota Vikings -3
    Total: 45

    At the time of publication, about 60 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Minny.

    65 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Vikings' last eight games vs the Lions.
    • The Vikings are 2-5 straight up (SU) in their last seven games on the road vs the Lions.
    • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Vikings' last 10 games on the road vs the Lions.

    What to Watch For

    These two sides played back in Week 4 when the Lions won 14-7 in a matchup that featured some solid defense. The Vikings ended up turning the ball over three times in that game -- resulting in 11 points for Detroit.

    The Lions are projected to have 1 takeaway Thursday, with a slightly higher probability of a pick than a recovered fumble.

    We've got one team that's absolutely rolling, and another that's still in the thick of things. So why does AccuScore think the Lions have a good chance at pulling off the upset this week?

    A lot of this comes down to some recent streaks. The Lions have beaten the Vikings three straight times and Detroit has won four straight on Thanksgiving. The Lions also have covered the spread in five straight Thanksgiving games. Add in the fact that they're on a three-game winning streak, and the momentum just adds more confidence to the pick.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFL Thursday: Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints - Free Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Falcons vs Saints - NFL Thursday Odds & Analyst Pick

    Week 14 in the NFL kicks off Thursday night in Atlanta as the Falcons host the New Orleans Saints on a weekend where the Saints will look to sneak into second place in the NFC -- with either the Eagles or Vikings loss. Atlanta, on the other hand, needs to win to stay in the wild card race.

    Vegas Odds
    There has been a lot of movement on the spread since New Orleans opened as 4-point favorites. Some books even had the spread switch completely to the other side, moving five points to make the Falcons a 1-point favorite. At the time of publication, though, most books across Vegas had this matchup as a pick 'em.

    The total opened at 54.5 before dropping a couple points.

    Betting Line: Pick 'Em or New Orleans Saints -1
    Total: 52

    At the time of publication, close to 57 percent of the public were taking New Orleans on the road.

    56 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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    Betting Trends
    - The total has gone OVER in 10 of New Orleans' last 15 games.
    - The total has gone OVER in 17 of Atlanta's last 25 games

    What to Watch For

    Public Action: According to a recent report, publicly backed teams are just 4-8-1 in Thursday night games this season. With the Saints getting the majority of the public action, there's some solace in knowing the simulation data is supporting the home side -- and going against Vegas.

    Backs Running Wild: New Orleans RB Albin Kamara had nine carries for 60 yards and two TDs and caught five of six targets for 66 yards in last week's 31-21 win over the Carolina Panthers. His production has been ridiculous, especially when you consider he never really gets close to 20 touches. It's practically a guarantee of late that he'll find the end zone.

    Matty Ice: Falcons QB Matt Ryan completed 16 of 29 passes for 173 yards during last week's14-9 loss to the Vikings. Ryan was pretty, pretty bad last week, recording his lowest total yardage for the season. Ryan is projected to finish Thursday night's game with 289 yards, 2 TDs and a win.

    FREE Analyst's Pick

    Analyst Pick: Atlanta covering/winning.

    AccuScore has all expert picks for NFL Thursday, Sunday and Monday all live: All of AccuScore's NFL Picks

  • NFL Thursday: Ravens vs Dolphins Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Ravens vs Dolphins: TNF Analyst Pick

    This week's episode of Thursday Night Football features a pair of teams looking to get a win and get back in the playoff hunt. The Baltimore Ravens host the Miami Dolphins having won seven of the last eight meetings between the two sides.

    Vegas Odds

    The total has stayed consistent at 48.5 since the line opened, but the spread has dropped from -6 to -4.5 for Philly.

    Betting Line: Baltimore Ravens -3
    Total: 37

    Click Here for All of AccuScore's Week 7 NFL Picks

    Top AccuScore Trends: After Week 7 (before MNF)
    - All NFL Picks vs the Spread: 57-41-7 58.9% +1,190
    - All Side Value Picks: 58-44 +2527
    - All Totals Picks: 52-42-6 +1080
    All NFL Spread, Totals & Side Value Picks: +4797 profit!

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    All of AccuScore's NFL Picks

    Betting Trends

    • The Dolphins are 1-6 straight up (SU) in their last seven games against the Ravens.
    • The Dolphins are 0-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against the Ravens.
    • The Dolphins are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games at night.
    • The total has gone OVER in four of the Ravens' last five games

    What to Watch For

    For the Dolphins, their best chance at staying competitive in this matchup is with their defense. They're giving up just 82 yards per game on the ground, good for No. 6 in the league. The Baltimore offensive line is banged up and we should see the Miami pressuring the QB early and often.

    The Dolphins' defense average 1.3 forced turnovers per simulated matchup, with a much higher chance of an INT than a forced fumble.

    Matt Moore threw a pair of TDs in the Dolphins' 31-28 win over New York last week. Moore was above-average last season when stepping in for QB Ryan Tannehill, finishing with a TD:INT ratio of 8:3 in three games.

    Moore is projected to finish Thursday night's matchup with 246 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFL Thursday: Steelers vs Titans Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers: TNF Analyst Pick

    The Pittsburgh Steelers haven't necessarily looked dominant in every quarter of every game, but they are what their record says they are. 7-2 sitting atop the AFC with the New England Patriots. The Steelers will look for their fifth straight win when they host the Tennessee Titans Thursday night to kick off Week 11 in the NFL.

    Vegas Odds
    There has been practically no movement on the spread or total since they opened Monday night.

    Betting Line: Pittsburgh Steelers -7
    Total: 44

    At the time of publication, the public was split even on the spread. 60 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    AccuScore has all picks for Thursday & Week 11, including a free forecast with picks, trends and player projections: All of AccuScore's NFL Picks

    Betting Trends
    -Tennessee is 0-3-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last four games in November. -Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS vs teams with a winning record. The Titans are 6-3. -The UNDER is 7-0 in the Steelers' last seven games after recording fewer than than 90 rushing yards rushing in their previous game.They had just 88 rushing yards (80 by Le'veon Bell) last week against the Indianapolis Colts.

    What to Watch For
    Pittsburgh improved to 5-1 on the road last week after coming back from down 14 to win 20-17 over the Colts. QB Ben Roethlisberger enters Week 11 completing about 61 percetn of his passes with a passer rating of 83.8 -- his lowest in almost a decade. He clearly comes through, though, when it counts the most.

    Roethlesberger is projected to finish with 269 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages just 0.6 INTs per simulation.

    Titans RB DeMarco Murray finally had himself a game in Week 10, finish with 2 TDs to help Tennessee win 24-20. Although he's coming off a strong performance where he carried the ball 14 times and added 4 receptions, he has only gone over 14 rushes once this season. He's a goal-line threat, though, and there's always value in that.

    He's projected to finish with 60 yards on 16 carries. He averages just 0.3 TDs per sim.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFL TNF Analyst Pick: Eagles at Panthers - Week 6

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Thursday - Panthers vs Eagles

    Thursday night NFL action in this week's slate features a pair of 4-1 teams looking to keep momentum trending the right way. The Panthers are slight 3-to-3.5-point favorites, getting the nod as the home side in what's projected as a tight matchup.

    Date/Time: Thursday, 10/12 at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
    Spread: Panthers -3.5
    Total: 45.5

    Vegas Odds
    There really hasn't been a whole lot of movement on the line, Vegas and the public expecting a close matchup Thursday night.

    The line opened at -3 for Carolina, moving up just a half-point in some books across Vegas. Same for the total, up a half-point to 45.5.

    Betting Trends
    • The Eagles are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games.
    • The Eagles are 6-1 straight up (SU) in their last seven games.
    • The Eagles 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
    • The total has gone OVER seven of the Eagles' last 10 games.
    • The Panthers are 1-3-2 in their last six games at home.

    Top AccuScore Trends: After Week 5
    - All NFL Picks vs the Spread: 43-30-4, 58.9% +1,000
    - All Side Value Picks: 44-31, 58.7% +1800
    - All Totals Picks: 44-29-4, 60.3% +1210
    All NFL Spread, Totals & Side Value Picks: +4010 profit!

    All of AccuScore's Week 6 NFL Picks

    What to Watch For
    Trouble on the O-line: As John Breech of CBS Sports first pointed out, the absence of offensive lineman Lane Johnson has the potential to be a huge game changer this week; Johnson suffered a concussion in Sunday's game against the Arizona Cardinals and is projected to be out Thursday night on a short week.

    Why's that such a big deal? Johnson has been in the lineup for 11 of Wentz's 21 career starts.

    In those 11 games, Wentz has a 9-2 record, 65.7 completion percentage, 2,766 yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs, and a 99.9 passer rating.

    He went 2-8 in the games without Johnson, looking like a completely different product on the field. In those 10 games, he went 2-8 and threw twice as many INTs (12) as TDs (6).

    Wentz is projected to finish Thursday's game with 261 yards, averaging 1.3 TDs to 0.8 INTs in sims.

    Ground Game: Philly's run defense has actually been solid this year -- containing the likes of Melvin Gordon and Kareem Hunt so far this season. The Eagles gave up some late yardage on the ground to the Chiefs and Chargers, but for the most part have been consistently above average in that category.

    The Panthers are projected to finish with at least 1 rushing TD.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFL Week 2 Picks - Analyst

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Sunday – Analyst’s NFL Week 2 Picks

    There are multiple matchups on this Sunday's Week 2 NFL slate that feature Vegas and AccuScore on different sides of the money line.

    Let's take a closer look at a couple of these games, and the value AccuScore sim data is providing. Make sure to check out all our simulations because these aren't the only matchups in which our data and Vegas odds differ on the favorite(s): All of AccuScore’s NFL Week 2 Picks.

    Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

    At the time of publication, the Falcons are 3-point favorites with the total set at 55. Atlanta's listed at -155 on the money line, indicating a 60-to-61 percent chance of winning.

    AccuScore sim data, however, has the Packers as slight road favorites.

    Green Bay wins about 54 percent of simulations; the sim data would have listed GB at -115, indicating a good amount of value on the +135 listed in Vegas. Those odds indicate about a 42 percent chance of winning.

    Why Green Bay? Atlanta is still calibrating to two new coordinators and Aaron Rodgers is pretty, pretty good at taking advantage of mistakes.

    Betting Trends
    • In two games vs GB last season, ATL QB Matt Ryan threw for 680 yards, 7 TDs and 0 INTs. He's projected to finish Sunday's game with 290 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.
    • The Packers are 6-14 against the spread (ATS) in their last 20 games against the NFC South.
    • The Falcons are 7-1 straight up (SU) and ATS in their last eight games in Week 2.

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    Washington Redskins @ Los Angeles Rams

    The Rams are slight favorites at home, laying 2.5 points at the time of publication and listed at -140 on the money line. The odds indicate about a 58.3 percent chance of winning for L.A.

    AccuScore simulations, however, are showing quite a bit of value on the visiting Washington roster. We've got a four-star (out of four) hot trend alert as the Redskins cover a 2.5-to-3-point spread in over 55 percent of simulations.

    They're listed at +120 on the money line in most books, indicating a 45 percent winning probability.

    The sims actually have Washington as the slight favorites, winning 52 percent of simulated matchups. The data would have listed Washington at -110, making a wager on them fairly attractive.

    Why Washington? Looking back at the last handful of games between the two franchises, the underdog is 10-4 ATS. Tough to go against a trend like that, especially with simulation data suggesting much of the same.

    Betting Trends
    • Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after an ATS loss.
    • Washington is 5-0 ATS after allowing less than 90 rushing yards.
    • Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against teams with winning records.
    • Washington is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road matchups.

    The Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record.

  • NFL: Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons - Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons: Analyst Pick

    The Dallas Cowboys -- coming off a big win over Kansas City -- head to Atlanta to match up with the Falcons. Running back Ezekiel Elliot has been the focal point of most NFL discussions this week after the court upheld his initial suspension.

    No 'Zeke, no problem -- at least according to our simulations.

    Vegas Odds

    The total has seen plenty of movement over the past few days. Atlanta opened up as 3-point favorites before settling at -3.5. The total, however, dropped to 48-to-48.5 after opening at 53.

    Betting Line: Atlanta Falcon -3.5
    Total: 48.5

    At the time of publication, about 60 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Cowboys. 65 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    -The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
    -Dallas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road.
    -The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 21 games on the road.

    What to Watch For
    With Elliot out, it'll be a trio of Alfred Morris, Darren McFadden, and Rod Smith who'll be expected to try and come close to the production they have otherwise.

    McFadden leads the way in sims for Dallas, averaging the most TDs per sim (0.5) amongst the backs. He's projected to put up 71 yards on 14 carries.

    The Cowboys' defense hasn't been all that subpar this year, giving up 22.2 points per game which is good for No. 15 in the league. This game largely depends on how often they can force Matt Ryan and the Falcons' offense to settle for FGs.

    The Dallas defense averages about 1 forced turnover per sim, with a slightly her probability of a forced fumble as opposed to a pick.

    Matt Ryan is projected to finish with 280 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages just 0.3 INTs per sim, compared to 2.0 TDs per sim.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • Packers vs Buccaneers - Free NFL Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Packers vs Bucs - Preview, Odds & Free Analyst Pick

    The Green Bay Packers are still holding onto to the hope that Aaron Rodgers returns this season, with recent reports indicating he could play in 2-3 weeks. That means if the Packers can get wins this week against Tampa Bay and next week against Cleveland, the postseason isn't completely out of the picture. The Bucs -- coming off a 30-20 loss to the Atlanta Falcons -- will get QB Jameis Winston back in the starting lineup this week.

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    Vegas Odds

    Tampa Bay actually opened up as a 1-point road favorite before some public action moved the spread to the other side.

    The total opened at 44 before settling a point higher at 45.

    Betting Line: Green Bay -2.5
    Total: 45

    At the time of publication, close to 68 percent of the public were laying the points at home and taking Green Bay.

    55 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    - The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win.
    - The total has gone UNDER in 30 of the Buccaneers’ last 42 games against the Packers.

    What to Watch For

    Winston is expected to return from a three-game absence, getting set to go up against a Packers defense that's giving up 7.8 yards per pass attempt.

    Winston is projected to finish with 218 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

    The Bucs defense is coming off a game in which they gave up 516 yards to the Falcons, 253 of which went to Julio Jones.

    The Tampa Bay defense is actually projected to force close to 3 takeaways this Sunday, with at least 2 being INTs. Brett Hundley is projected to finish with 201 yards, 1 TD and 2-plus INTs.

    AccuScore has all picks for NFL Sunday & Monday Night: AccuScore's NFL Picks

    Free Analyst's Pick

    Tampa Bay covering on the road.

    Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last five games at home

  • Ravens v Texans Free Analyst Pick: Cyber Monday NFL

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Ravens vs Texans: Cyber Monday Night Football

    Week 12 in the NFL wraps up Monday night in Baltimore as the 5-5 Ravens host the 4-6 Houston Texans at M&T Bank Stadium. Both teams started the season projecting to be a playoff contender; and both are on the bubble heading into Week 12.

    Vegas Odds

    Betting Line:Baltimore Ravens -7
    Total: 38

    At the time of publication, about 56 percent of the public were laying the points at home and picking BAL.

    59 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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    Betting Trends
    -The Texans are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games. -The total has gone OVER in six of the Ravens' last eight games. -The Texans are 2-7 SU in their last nine games against the Ravens.

    What to Watch For
    Tom Savage has been pretty, pretty bad this season filling in as the starting QB. His 4:3 TD:INT ratio is nothing to boast about and with Lamar Miller as the feature back, he won't have much of a safety net.

    Savage is projected to finish with 245 passing yards and 1 TD. He averages about twice as many TDs per sim (1.3) as he does INTs (0.6).

    Miller is projected to finish with 55 rushing yards on 16 carries and 0 TDs. He averages just 0.3 Tds per sim.

    The Texans defense -- usually known for its prowess with a healthy roster -- is in the bottom half of the league allowing 5.7 yards per play. Sure JJ Watt being injured is a big deal, but the loss of middle linebacker Brian Cushing has been just as crucial. They've still managed to be solid against the run though, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry. Teams have only scored 3 rushing TDs on the Texans; Houston has given up the most passing TDs though.

    The Houston defense is projected to have at least one takeaway Monday night.

    Analyst's Pick
    Cyber Monday Special
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    Analyst Pick: The OVER.

    The total has gone OVER in five of the Ravens' last six games.

  • Thursday Night Football: Pats vs Bucs - Analyst Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    All of AccuScore’s Week 5NFL Picks

    The New England Patriots might be on the road to kick off Week 5, but they're still getting about six of every ten tickets in books across Vegas. The Patriots are 2-2 straight up (SU), but have only covered just once this season. The Bucs are 2-1 SU and 1-2 against the spread (ATS).

    Vegas Odds: Patriots vs Tampa Bay

    The line opened up for the Pats at -4, but quickly creeped up to 5.5 or 6.0 depending on when and where you're getting it. Westgate has it at -5.5, but MGM has up at -6.

    Fun Facts

    New England and Tampa Bay have given up a combined 851.1 total yards of offense per game. The biggest total in Thursday Night Football history is 56.5. The total is at 55.5 at the time of publication. Betting Trends

    The last 5 games -- league-wide -- that closed with a total of 54 or higher all went OVER. The total was at 55.5 at the time of publication. [Goes against AccuScore sim data.] The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] New England is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] Tampa Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]

    What to Watch For

    The rushing attack for New England has had some issues this season -- averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season. RB Mike Gillislee has four TDs, but is still averaging just 3.4 yards per carry.

    Gillislee is projected to finish with 47 yards on 7 carries. He averages 0.4 TDs per sim.

    Analyst's Pick

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