• NFL: Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons - Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons: Analyst Pick

    The Dallas Cowboys -- coming off a big win over Kansas City -- head to Atlanta to match up with the Falcons. Running back Ezekiel Elliot has been the focal point of most NFL discussions this week after the court upheld his initial suspension.

    No 'Zeke, no problem -- at least according to our simulations.

    Vegas Odds

    The total has seen plenty of movement over the past few days. Atlanta opened up as 3-point favorites before settling at -3.5. The total, however, dropped to 48-to-48.5 after opening at 53.

    Betting Line: Atlanta Falcon -3.5
    Total: 48.5

    At the time of publication, about 60 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Cowboys. 65 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    -The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
    -Dallas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road.
    -The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 21 games on the road.

    What to Watch For
    With Elliot out, it'll be a trio of Alfred Morris, Darren McFadden, and Rod Smith who'll be expected to try and come close to the production they have otherwise.

    McFadden leads the way in sims for Dallas, averaging the most TDs per sim (0.5) amongst the backs. He's projected to put up 71 yards on 14 carries.

    The Cowboys' defense hasn't been all that subpar this year, giving up 22.2 points per game which is good for No. 15 in the league. This game largely depends on how often they can force Matt Ryan and the Falcons' offense to settle for FGs.

    The Dallas defense averages about 1 forced turnover per sim, with a slightly her probability of a forced fumble as opposed to a pick.

    Matt Ryan is projected to finish with 280 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages just 0.3 INTs per sim, compared to 2.0 TDs per sim.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • Packers vs Buccaneers - Free NFL Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Packers vs Bucs - Preview, Odds & Free Analyst Pick

    The Green Bay Packers are still holding onto to the hope that Aaron Rodgers returns this season, with recent reports indicating he could play in 2-3 weeks. That means if the Packers can get wins this week against Tampa Bay and next week against Cleveland, the postseason isn't completely out of the picture. The Bucs -- coming off a 30-20 loss to the Atlanta Falcons -- will get QB Jameis Winston back in the starting lineup this week.

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    Vegas Odds

    Tampa Bay actually opened up as a 1-point road favorite before some public action moved the spread to the other side.

    The total opened at 44 before settling a point higher at 45.

    Betting Line: Green Bay -2.5
    Total: 45

    At the time of publication, close to 68 percent of the public were laying the points at home and taking Green Bay.

    55 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    - The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win.
    - The total has gone UNDER in 30 of the Buccaneers’ last 42 games against the Packers.

    What to Watch For

    Winston is expected to return from a three-game absence, getting set to go up against a Packers defense that's giving up 7.8 yards per pass attempt.

    Winston is projected to finish with 218 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

    The Bucs defense is coming off a game in which they gave up 516 yards to the Falcons, 253 of which went to Julio Jones.

    The Tampa Bay defense is actually projected to force close to 3 takeaways this Sunday, with at least 2 being INTs. Brett Hundley is projected to finish with 201 yards, 1 TD and 2-plus INTs.

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    Free Analyst's Pick

    Tampa Bay covering on the road.

    Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last five games at home

  • Ravens v Texans Free Analyst Pick: Cyber Monday NFL

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Ravens vs Texans: Cyber Monday Night Football

    Week 12 in the NFL wraps up Monday night in Baltimore as the 5-5 Ravens host the 4-6 Houston Texans at M&T Bank Stadium. Both teams started the season projecting to be a playoff contender; and both are on the bubble heading into Week 12.

    Vegas Odds

    Betting Line:Baltimore Ravens -7
    Total: 38

    At the time of publication, about 56 percent of the public were laying the points at home and picking BAL.

    59 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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    Betting Trends
    -The Texans are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games. -The total has gone OVER in six of the Ravens' last eight games. -The Texans are 2-7 SU in their last nine games against the Ravens.

    What to Watch For
    Tom Savage has been pretty, pretty bad this season filling in as the starting QB. His 4:3 TD:INT ratio is nothing to boast about and with Lamar Miller as the feature back, he won't have much of a safety net.

    Savage is projected to finish with 245 passing yards and 1 TD. He averages about twice as many TDs per sim (1.3) as he does INTs (0.6).

    Miller is projected to finish with 55 rushing yards on 16 carries and 0 TDs. He averages just 0.3 Tds per sim.

    The Texans defense -- usually known for its prowess with a healthy roster -- is in the bottom half of the league allowing 5.7 yards per play. Sure JJ Watt being injured is a big deal, but the loss of middle linebacker Brian Cushing has been just as crucial. They've still managed to be solid against the run though, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry. Teams have only scored 3 rushing TDs on the Texans; Houston has given up the most passing TDs though.

    The Houston defense is projected to have at least one takeaway Monday night.

    Analyst's Pick
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    Analyst Pick: The OVER.

    The total has gone OVER in five of the Ravens' last six games.

  • Thursday Night Football: Pats vs Bucs - Analyst Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    All of AccuScore’s Week 5NFL Picks

    The New England Patriots might be on the road to kick off Week 5, but they're still getting about six of every ten tickets in books across Vegas. The Patriots are 2-2 straight up (SU), but have only covered just once this season. The Bucs are 2-1 SU and 1-2 against the spread (ATS).

    Vegas Odds: Patriots vs Tampa Bay

    The line opened up for the Pats at -4, but quickly creeped up to 5.5 or 6.0 depending on when and where you're getting it. Westgate has it at -5.5, but MGM has up at -6.

    Fun Facts

    New England and Tampa Bay have given up a combined 851.1 total yards of offense per game. The biggest total in Thursday Night Football history is 56.5. The total is at 55.5 at the time of publication. Betting Trends

    The last 5 games -- league-wide -- that closed with a total of 54 or higher all went OVER. The total was at 55.5 at the time of publication. [Goes against AccuScore sim data.] The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] New England is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.] Tampa Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]

    What to Watch For

    The rushing attack for New England has had some issues this season -- averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season. RB Mike Gillislee has four TDs, but is still averaging just 3.4 yards per carry.

    Gillislee is projected to finish with 47 yards on 7 carries. He averages 0.4 TDs per sim.

    Analyst's Pick

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