Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs: Game 5
AccuScore has star-rated picks and trends on picks against the spread and on the Over/Under for tonight’s pivotal Game 5 Click Here for Live Odds & Expert Picks: OKC Thunder vs SA Spurs - Game 5
Two games into the series, the entire sports community thought the Spurs were once again punching a ticket to the NBA Finals. Serge Ibaka miraculously returned from a calf injury and the Thunder were a completely different in games 3 and 4. With the two teams now tied at 2 games each, the series once again shifts back to San Antonio. After two sub-par shooting performances in Oklahoma City, the Spurs are essentially in a must-win situation in Game 5.
AccuScore has the San Antonio Spurs as solid 73.3 percent favorites to win game 5 of their best-of-seven series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 104-97, with the Spurs having a 60.9 percent chance of covering the -4 spread. There is a 58.2 percent chance the total combined score stays UNDER 206.
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Spurs vs Thunder: Betting Trends
• Oklahoma City is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
• Oklahoma City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games.
• Oklahoma City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road.
• San Antonio is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.
• San Antonio is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games.
• San Antonio is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Projected Leaders
Kevin Durant: 28 points (45% FG), 8 rebounds, 5 assists
Russell Westbrook: 22 points (42% FG), 8 assists, 5 rebounds
Tony Parker: 17 points (49% FG), 6 assists, 1 steal
Tim Duncan: 15 points (46% FG), 10 rebounds, 2 blocks
What to Watch For
The Spurs had yet another poor shooting performance in game 4, shooting 39.8 percent from the field and just 33 percent from beyond the arc. They made 9-27 from the three-point line. There is no need to attempt that many long-range jumpers unless they’ve been going in, or they’re open. The attempts in the last two games haven’t necessarily been poor shots, however, they just haven’t been going in. Keep an eye on Danny Green’s shooting - his production is the best indicator of whether or not the Spurs win. AccuScore projects the Spurs to shoot 8 for 21 from three-pointers in Game 5.
No San Antonio starter played more than 26 minutes in Game 4. Both Durant and Westbrook played practically the whole game. While we expect their legs to be ready for tough minutes at this point of the season, the rest the Spurs got in Game 4 will definitely help in the second half of Game 5. Fresher legs can be big-time asset down the stretch.
San Antonio had some problems with ball security as they committed 13 turnovers in Game 4. San Antonio is No. 9 in the league in turnovers per game and No. 7 in the league in turnovers per possession. AccuScore projects 13 turnovers for the Spurs, compared to 17 for the Thunder.
