Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @Rohitghosh
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Game 4
After dropping the first two games of the series in San Antonio, the Oklahoma City Thunder were injected with new life when Serge Ibaka made a comeback to play effective minutes. Just a week ago, he was declared out of the series due to a calf injury; he blocked four shots in game 3 and had a profound impact on the game. Game 4, however, will be a different beast as the Spurs – the machine that they are – rarely lose back-to-back games in the playoffs. Despite Ibaka’s impact, it was the Spurs who shot their way to a loss, shooting about 40 percent with Ibaka on the floor and about 37 percent with him off. They will need a traditional team effort Tuesday night if they hope to head home up 3-1.
AccuScore has the San Antonio Spurs as slight 52.7 percent favorites to win game 4 of their best-of-seven series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 102-100, with the Spurs having a 60 percent chance of covering the +2.5 spread. There is a 58.7 percent chance the total combined score stays UNDER 207. While OKC has a slightly higher chance at a close win (4 points or less), San Antonio has quite the advantage in its probability at a big win (10 points or more).
Betting Trends: Game 4
Live Odds & Picks: Spurs vs Thunder: Game 4
•The Spurs are 7-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 9 games.
•The Spurs are 7-2 straight up (SU) in their last 9 games.
•The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Spurs’ last 5 games.
•The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.
•The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Thunder’s last 6 games.
•The Thunder are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.
•The Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing the Spurs.
•The Thunder are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing the Spurs.
Become an AccuScore Member using the coupon code NBAFinals and get 25% off an All-Sports All-Access Premium membership. This includes picks, analysis and more for every game.
Spurs vs. Thunder: Projected Leaders
Tony Parker: 16 points, 7 assists, 1 steal
Tim Duncan: 14 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks
Kevin Durant: 29 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 TOs
Russell Westbrook: 22 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds, 4 TOs
What to Watch For
The Spurs were outrebounded by 16 in game 3. Despite OKC being in the top 10 of total rebounding and San Antonio being in the bottom third of the league in the same category, a margin of 16 is inexcusable. The added emotions of Ibaka’s comeback and the home crowd clearly gave OKC some much needed energy – can they sustain that level through game 4? AccuScore projects the Thunder outrebounding the Spurs by about 5 rebounds.
Coach Gregg Popovich may have called the first half of game 3 the worst defensive performance of the season, but the problems were also on the offensive end. Tony Parker shot just 4-13 from the field and had as many turnovers as assists. Outside of Manu Ginobili, the Spurs roster shot below 36 percent from the field, including 23.5 percent from beyond the arc. Both teams are projected to shoot 45 percent in game 4.
For second half bettors, keep an eye on the free-throws attempted by the Thunder in the first half. The Spurs were the best team in the league at defending without fouling in the regular season, but gave up 31 FTs in game 3. How often OKC gets to the line is a key indicator to how this game will progress.
