Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NBA Finals: Game 4
AccuScore has picks on the Over/Under and against the spread for this the Heat vs Spurs Game 4 Click Here for Live Odds & Expert Picks: NBA Finals - Game 4
After LeBron James dazzled us with a Game 2 performance for the ages - 35 points on 22 shots in a 98-96 victory in San Antonio - the momentum shifted in favor of the Miami Heat as they flew home for Games 3 and 4. The Spurs, however, are best when doubted most and they showed that in Game 3 as they topped LeBron’s Game 2 with a record-setting Game 3. The Spurs shot nearly 76 percent from the field in the first half of Game 3, going up by as much as 25 points in the first half. Miami made a dent into the lead in the second half, but the Spurs’ precision led to a dominating 111-92 victory. Can Miami take the next one at home to even the series at two games apiece?
AccuScore has the Heat as slight 54.9 percent favorites to win Game 4 of their best-of-seven series against the Spurs. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 100-99, with the Spurs having a 61.1 percent chance of covering the +5.5 spread. There is a 50.8 percent chance the total combined score goes OVER 197. The simulations clearly expect a close game as both teams have fairly comparable probabilities at close wins (4 points or less) and big wins (10 points or more); the home team has the slight edge in both.
The most obvious discrepancy in the projected box score is the slight edge Miami has in the steals column (10 vs 7) and in turnovers (12 vs 15). In a game projected to be this close, the slightest of slipups can shift momentum.
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San Antonio Spurs Betting Trends
• The Spurs are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 5 games.
• The Spurs are 4-1 straight up (SU) in their last 5 games.
• The Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of the Spurs’ last 10 games when playing the Heat.
• The Spurs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against the Heat.
• The total has gone UNDER in 17 of the Spurs’ last 23 games when playing on the road against the Heat.
Miami Heat Betting Trends
• The Heat are 13-5 SU in its last 18 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 9 of the Heat’s last 12 games.
• The Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games at home.
• The Heat are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games at home.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Heat’s last 5 games at home.
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of the Heat’s last 10 games when playing the Spurs.
• The Heat are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against the Spurs.
• The total has gone UNDER in 17 of the Heat’s last 23 games when playing at home against the Spurs.
Projected Leaders
LeBron James: 25 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 3 TOs
Dwyane Wade: 17 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists
Tony Parker: 15 points, 6 assists, 3 TOs
Tim Duncan: 14 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks
What to Watch For
Miami’s Defense vs San Antonio’s Offense: Plain and simple, the Spurs won’t have a first half where they make more than three-fourths of their shots. Miami’s defense didn’t put up much of a resistance but they can safely assume that the Spurs’ offense won’t be as effective as it was in the previous game. What can stay the same, however, is the Spurs’ starting five’s versatility. By having Boris Diaw start at the 4 spot, the Spurs have playmakers at practically every position. If the Heat do make any lineup changes to adjust, Udonis Haslem might be the one to see some key minutes. He easily has the experience necessary to make an impact - his physicality can minimize Diaw’s production. Haslem is projected to finish with 4 points and 5 rebounds.
Chris Bosh: After scoring 18 points in each of the first two games, Heat forward Chris Bosh had only 4 shot attempts in Game 3. Per SportsVU as shared initially by Tom Haberstroh, Bosh had 30 touches and Rashard Lewis had 55. It was essentially the opposite from Games 1 and 2. Bosh shot 13-22 from the field in Games 1 and 2 combined - his aggressiveness being one of the key reasons Miami had a chance to actually start the series 2-0. Boris Diaw of the Spurs admitted the Spurs’ defense consciously tried to disrupt Bosh’s impact on the game. Expect Miami to start Game 4 by running some set plays directed to getting Bosh going. He is projected to finish with 15 points, 7 rebounds and 1 block.
