Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers: Game 5

AccuScore has a 4-star pick on the Over/Under and a 3-star pick against the spread for this game Click Here for Live Odds & Expert Picks: Heat vs Pacers - Game 5

The Miami Heat did what back-to-back champions do, they protected their home court. After stealing a game in Indiana, the Heat dominated in Miami to go up 3-1 in their best-of-seven series. The hope Indiana gave its fans in game one is now a distant memory. Can the mentally-fragile Pacers find a way to extend the series? The simulation data seems to think so.

AccuScore has the Indiana Pacers as slight 56.3 percent favorites to win game 5 in their best-of-seven series against the Miami Heat. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 90-89, with Indiana having nearly a 60 percent chance of covering the +1.5 spread. There is a 59.8 percent chance the total combined score stats under 184.

Heat vs Pacers: Game 5 Betting Trends

As of May 28, the Pacers have a 65-34 record, 46-52-1 ATS. The Heat are 65-30 and 48-46-1 ATS. Betting totals have seen the Pacers post a 42-54-3 OVER/UNDER record thus far, and 54-51 for Miami against the total number of points scored.

• The Heat are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
• The Heat are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Heat’s last 7 games.
• The Heat are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
• The Pacers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
• The Pacers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
• The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Pacers’ last 6 games at home.

Heat vs Pacers: Projected Leaders

LeBron James: 24 points (47% FG), 7 rebounds, 7 assists
Dwyane Wade: 16 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists
Paul George: 17 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, 3 TOs
David West: 14 points, 7 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block

What to Watch For

The Pacers are giving up about 96 points per game in this series to the Heat, after allowing just 92.3 ppg in the regular season. More importantly, they have allowed the Heat to shoot nearly 51 percent from the field after holding opponents to below 43 percent shooting during the regular season. With game 5 at home, Indiana has no excuses - must have one of its better defensive performances of the season. Miami is projected to shoot 44 percent FG in game 5.

Turnovers are key, and the Pacers just haven’t been able to force that many of them. Their defense is patient and prefers to protect the paint rather than gamble for steals. Well, that hasn’t worked either as Miami continues to shoot over 50 percent for the series. Indiana forced just 7 turnovers in game 4. Beating Miami not only requires a perfect effort from one side, but a sub-par performance from the Heat. And the only way to have that is to get the ball out of their hands. Expect Indiana to be extra-aggressive on the perimeter in an effort to force some early turnovers in game 5.