Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers: Game 4
After going up big early in first half of game 3, the Indiana Pacers once again found a way to make a good thing go bad as they ultimately lost 99-87 behind a three-pronged attack from LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen. Now the Pacers essentially head into game 4 in a win-or-go-home situation. Going down 3-1 to the two-time defending champions is a recipe for disaster. The question is, how fragile Indiana’s psyche going into game 4?
AccuScore as the Miami Heat as solid 70.5 percent favorites to win game 4 of their best-of-seven series against the Indiana Pacers and go up 3-1 in the series. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 95-89, with both teams having almost the exact same probability at covering the spread (+- 6.5). As has been the case with teams facing the Heat in Miami, the excessive turnovers are what result in a loss. Indiana averaged about 5 more turnovers than Miami in the simulations.
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Indiana Pacers Betting Trends
Odds/Picks: Pacers-Heat Game 4
• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Pacers’ last 15 games.
• The Pacers are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 6 games on the road.
• The Pacers are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games on the road.
• The Pacers are 5-1 straight up (SU) in their last 6 games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Pacers’ last 7 games on the road.
• The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing the Heat.
• The Pacers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing the Heat.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Pacers’ last 6 games when playing the Heat.
• The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against the Heat.
• The Pacers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against the Heat.
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of the Pacers’ last 9 games when playing on the road against the Heat.
Miami Heat Betting Trends
Live Odds: Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat
• The Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
• The Heat are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Heat’s last 6 games.
• The Heat are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games at home.
• The Heat are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Heat’s last 6 games at home.
• The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing the Pacers.
• The Heat are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing the Pacers.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Heat’s last 6 games when playing the Pacers.
• The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against the Pacers.
• The Heat are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against the Pacers.
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of the Heat’s last 9 games when playing at home against the Pacers.
Heat vs. Pacers: Game 4 Projected Leaders
• Paul George: 17 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals
• LeBron James: 26 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists
What to Watch For
Indiana scored 24 points in the paint in the first half of game 3. They had just 14 the remainder of the game. The higher the total of the Pacers’ paint production, the more aggressive they’re being on offense. Given how quick and athletic Miami is on the perimeter, Indiana’s only chance at winning this series will be from inside. If they settle for jumpers early on in game 4, might as well call it a series right then.
After committing just 12 and 11 turnovers each in the first two games, respectively, Indiana totaled 19 in game 3. AccuScore projects the Pacers to finish with 16 turnovers, compared to 11 of the Heat. Miami was No. 3 in the league this year in forcing turnovers.
