Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs: Game 1

The Oklahoma City Thunder may have swept their season series with the San Antonio Spurs in the regular season, but most fans and members of media know the playoffs are a whole different situation. Most notably, the Thunder have lost Serge Ibaka to a a Grade 2 strain of the plantaris (left calf). Thus far in the playoffs, Ibaka has averaged 12.2 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.2 blocks. As the Thunder prepare to take on the defending Western Conference champs without their main defensive presence, the Spurs know not to take anything, even the injury of a star player, granted. There’s no doubt San Antonio will stick to their game plan, regardless of who’s on the floor. Can the Thunder get enough offense from their Durant-Westbrook duo to keep the games competitive?

AccuScore has the San Antonio Spurs as overwhelming 74 percent favorites to win game one of their best-of-seven series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 106-98, with the Spurs having nearly a 60 percent chance of covering the -5.5 spread. There is a 59.3 percent chance the total combined score stays UNDER 208.5.

Thunder Betting Trends: Click Here For Odds/Picks


• The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
• The Thunder are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Thunder’s last 5 games.
• The Thunder are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.

Spurs Betting Trends: Click Here For Odds/Picks


• The Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
• The Spurs are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Spurs’ last 8 games.
• The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.

Projected Leaders

Kevin Durant: 31 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 TOs

Russell Westbrook: 24 points, 9 assists, 6 rebounds, 5 TOs

Tony Parker: 19 points, 7 assists, 1 steal, 3 TOs

Tim Duncan: 14 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks

What to Watch For

The OKC Thunder are one of the worst in the league (No. 24) in terms of holding on to the ball. They’re in the bottom third of the league in turnovers per game. They do get benefitted, however, by the Spurs being more patient on defense and not gambling for steals. San Antonio is No. 25 in the league in forcing turnovers. Even with the Spurs more cautious defense as a factor, the Thunder commit – on average – four more turnovers than the Spurs in AccuScore simulations. The winner of the turnover battle more often than not won the game in simulations.

The Spurs lead the league in assists per game, averaging about 25 per game. They average a couple more at home than on the road, a stat that makes sense given how much San Antonio relies on role players who tend to play slightly better at home. While the total number of assists may not indicate who wins the game, but it will shed light on how efficient the Spurs’ offense is. If OKC can hold San Antonio to 20 or below, expect the Thunder to win that game. The Spurs average 26.8 assists in each of the simulated game 1’s.

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