Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NBA Finals 2014: Game 1

AccuScore has 4-star picks, the highest we go, against the spread and on the over/under for Game 1…check out AccuScore’s NBA Expert Picks for the Finals with live updated odds.

As Tim Duncan said following their victory over the OKC Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, the San Antonio Spurs have “four more to win” to complete their goal. After coming up short in the final moments last year, the Spurs season is *this* close to being what they had ideally envisioned months back. Get back to the NBA Finals, and dethrone LeBron James and the Miami Heat. Game 1 tips off Thursday night in a series many expect to feature the first back-to-back Game 7 in NBA Finals rematches.

AccuScore has the San Antonio Spurs as solid 64.3 percent favorites to win Game 1 of the NBA Finals Thursday night. The average score after at least 10,000 simulations is 100-96, with the Spurs having a 50.9 percent chance of covering the -4.5 spread. There is a 53.5 percent chance the total combined score stays under 198.5. While both teams have a fairly comparable probability at a close win (4 points or less), San Antonio has twice the chance of Miami at a big win (10 points or more).

Miami Heat Betting Trends

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• Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
• Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games on the road.
• Miami is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing San Antonio.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing San Antonio.
• Miami is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against San Antonio.
• Miami is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against San Antonio.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio.
• The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 16 games when playing on the road against San Antonio.

San Antonio Spurs Betting Trends

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• San Antonio is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games.
• San Antonio is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games.
• San Antonio is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home.
• San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games at home.
• San Antonio is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Miami.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing Miami.
• San Antonio is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Miami.
• San Antonio is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Miami.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami.
• The total has gone UNDER in 11 of San Antonio's last 16 games when playing at home against Miami.

Projected Leaders

LeBron James: 26 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 TOs
Dwyane Wade: 16 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 TOs
Tony Parker: 15 points, 5 assists, 1 steal
Tim Duncan: 15 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks

What to Watch For

A determining factor this series will be Tony Parker’s health, and Manu Ginobili’s consistency. Parker sat out the second half and overtime period of the Spurs’ series-clinching victory in Game 6 vs OKC due to a sore left ankle. While he won’t have to go up against the likes of Russell Westbrook in this upcoming series, his ability to make proper cuts and attack the basket is vital to the Spurs offense. As of now, Parker is expected to both play and start in Game 1. He is averaging 17.2 points and 4.9 assists per game in the playoffs after putting up an average of 16.7 points and 5.7 assists per game during the regular season.

Ginobili was essentially non-existent in last year’s NBA Finals matchup against the Heat. The Spurs were outscored by 10.1 points per 100 possessions with Manu on the court during last year’s NBA Finals. Expect Manu himself to want to prove himself after consistently struggling against the Heat. Even in the two regular season matchups this season he was unable to have any sort of positive impact. Ginobili is projected to finish Game 1 with 12 points, 4 assists and 3 rebounds.