The Philadelphia Phillies are 8-9 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Tampa Bay Rays who are 9-15 at home. The Phillies have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo is forecasted to have a better game than Rays starter Ryan Pepiot. Jesus Luzardo has a 55% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Ryan Pepiot has a 43% chance of a QS. If Jesus Luzardo has a quality start the Phillies has a 74% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.5 and he has a 28% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Phillies win 54%. In Ryan Pepiot quality starts the Rays win 68%. He has a 29% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 68% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Tampa Bay Rays is Yandy Diaz who averaged 2.19 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 37% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Rays have a 53% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Bryce Harper who averaged 2.33 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 40% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 70% chance of winning.
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Philadelphia Phillies
| Philadelphia Phillies | RECORD | Tampa Bay Rays | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|
| Record on the Road | 8-9, 47% -271 | Record at Home | 9-15, 38% -879 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| VS Tampa Bay Rays | 2-0, 100% 152 | VS Philadelphia Phillies | 0-2, 0% -200 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| vs Team Under .500 | 12-5, 71% 191 | vs Team .500 or Better | 9-12, 43% -153 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Record as Road Favorite | 6-5, 55% -78 | Record as Home Underdog | 1-5, 17% -395 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| When Jesus Luzardo Starts | 5-2, 71% 186 | When Ryan Pepiot Starts | 3-5, 38% -251 | Philadelphia Phillies |
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Philadelphia Phillies
| Philadelphia Phillies | RECORD | Tampa Bay Rays | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|
| Record on the Road | 6-8, 43% -295 | Record at Home | 5-13, 28% -898 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| VS Tampa Bay Rays | 2-0, 100% 152 | VS Philadelphia Phillies | 0-2, 0% -200 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| vs Team Under .500 | 6-2, 75% 139 | vs Team .500 or Better | 10-11, 48% 55 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Record as Road Favorite | 4-4, 50% -102 | Record as Home Underdog | 1-4, 20% -295 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| When Jesus Luzardo Starts | 3-2, 60% 14 | When Ryan Pepiot Starts | 2-4, 33% -200 | Philadelphia Phillies |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| Philadelphia Phillies | RECORD | Tampa Bay Rays | RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|
| OVER-UNDER ON ROAD | 6-11, 35% Over | OVER-UNDER AT HOME | 10-12, 45% Over | UNDER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 4-10, 29% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 9-7, 56% Over | UNDER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 43-37, 54% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 36-42, 46% Over | UNDER |
| OVER-UNDER IN Jesus Luzardo STARTS | 4-3, 57% Over | OVER-UNDER IN Ryan Pepiot STARTS | 3-5, 38% Over | N/A |
ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.
SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 9-8, 53% -121 Tampa Bay Rays Home Games: 13-11, 54% +38 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 7-7, 50% -157 Tampa Bay Rays Home Games: 9-9, 50% +19
MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 9-8, 53% -149 Tampa Bay Rays Home Games: 13-11, 54% -129 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 7-7, 50% -173 Tampa Bay Rays Home Games: 9-9, 50% -148
OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 10-6, 62% + 340 Tampa Bay Rays Home Games: 10-9, 53% + 10 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 8-5, 62% + 250 Tampa Bay Rays Home Games: 9-6, 60% + 240
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