The Boston Red Sox are 11-9 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Baltimore Orioles who are 7-15 on the road this season. The Red Sox have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito is forecasted to have a better game than Orioles starter Charlie Morton. Lucas Giolito has a 48% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Charlie Morton has a 27% chance of a QS. If Lucas Giolito has a quality start the Red Sox has a 84% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.2 and he has a 26% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Red Sox win 64%. In Charlie Morton quality starts the Orioles win 71%. He has a 15% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 71% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Boston Red Sox is Alex Bregman who averaged 2.84 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 51% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Red Sox have a 73% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Baltimore Orioles is Adley Rutschman who averaged 2.27 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 38% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Orioles have a 50% chance of winning.
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Boston Red Sox
| Baltimore Orioles | RECORD | Boston Red Sox | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|
| Record on the Road | 7-15, 32% -865 | Record at Home | 11-9, 55% -162 | Boston Red Sox |
| VS Boston Red Sox | 1-2, 33% -132 | VS Baltimore Orioles | 2-1, 67% 85 | Boston Red Sox |
| vs Team Under .500 | 5-7, 42% -296 | vs Team Under .500 | 8-5, 62% 76 | Boston Red Sox |
| Record As Road Underdog | 5-11, 31% -603 | Record As Home Favorite | 10-8, 56% -151 | Boston Red Sox |
| When Charlie Morton Starts | 0-7, 0% -700 | When Lucas Giolito Starts | 1-2, 33% -86 | Boston Red Sox |
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Boston Red Sox
| Baltimore Orioles | RECORD | Boston Red Sox | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|
| Record on the Road | 3-8, 27% -569 | Record at Home | 3-5, 38% -272 | Boston Red Sox |
| VS Boston Red Sox | 0-0 No Games | VS Baltimore Orioles | 0-0 No Games | N/A |
| vs Team Under .500 | 3-2, 60% 31 | vs Team Under .500 | 2-1, 67% 39 | Boston Red Sox |
| Record As Road Underdog | 1-6, 14% -507 | Record As Home Favorite | 3-4, 43% -172 | Boston Red Sox |
| When Charlie Morton Starts | 0-2, 0% -200 | When Lucas Giolito Starts | 1-2, 33% -86 | Boston Red Sox |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| Baltimore Orioles | RECORD | Boston Red Sox | RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|
| OVER-UNDER ON ROAD | 7-14, 33% Over | OVER-UNDER AT HOME | 8-11, 42% Over | UNDER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 2-9, 18% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 3-5, 38% Over | UNDER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 44-35, 56% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 35-42, 45% Over | UNDER |
| OVER-UNDER IN Charlie Morton STARTS | 3-3, 50% Over | OVER-UNDER IN Lucas Giolito STARTS | 1-2, 33% Over | N/A |
ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.
SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 14-8, 64% +430 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 9-11, 45% -178 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 7-4, 64% +134 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 4-4, 50% -22
MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 15-7, 68% +517 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 10-10, 50% -351 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 8-3, 73% +304 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 3-5, 38% -272
OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 16-4, 80% + 1160 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 8-9, 47% -190 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Baltimore Orioles Road Games: 9-1, 90% + 790 Boston Red Sox Home Games: 6-2, 75% + 380
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