• 2018 NFL Playoffs Predictions - AccuScore's Bracket

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    2018 NFL Playoffs: AccuScore’s Predictions

    Finally, the 2018 NFL Playoffs are here.

    After 17 weeks of one of the most interesting NFL regular seasons in history, the playoffs are ready to kick-off. While Accuscore has simulated every game until the Super Bowl 52, let’s first take at how the computer performed in 2017.

    After picking spread, totals and moneyline for all 256 games.,..

    Accuscore’s Record for the 2017 NFL regular season
    • Against the Spread: 127-110-19, +600
    • Totals: 136-109-11, +1610
    • Moneyline: 167-89, +276
    Aggregate: +2486 profit

    As any shark will tell you, the point is to make a profit, and across the board, AccuScore made a profit and picked EVERY game this season.

    With a season full of data now ready to step up in the postseason, we have 11 Playoff games with which to increase our profits and pad that wallet.

    As a reminder...

    AccuScrore's 2017 NFL Playoffs Picks
    • Against the Spread: 8-3, +470
    • Totals: 6-5, +50
    • ML: 10-1, +510
    Aggregate: +1,030 profit

    Not a member? Join AccuScore today and get all of our NFL playoff picks at 25% off because, well, we’re in a good mood. It’s 2018 and we love the NFL playoffs for the aforementioned reasons.

    Use code “quarters” and get 25% off membership instantly. No questions asked. Annual or monthly membership. What are you waiting for?! Join today!

    With the full 2017 regular season data incorporated, our computer simulated ever game 10,000 times to come up with our 2018 NFL playoff bracket. Our computer simulates every game 10,000 times and compares our percentages to the Vegas odds to make winning, value picks for each game on our NFL picks page. There’s a free preview there, too.

    2017 NFC South Projections and Preview

    It is not a fantastic surprise that the computer is sticking with its pre-season Super Bowl 52 pick, the New England Patriots. After few hiccups at the beginning of the season Tom Brady & company still finished with a first round bye and playing well enough to maintain their position as favorites.

    Another QB that has been on the top of the passing stats sheet, New Orleans’ Drew Brees seems to lead his team to another run to the Super Bowl. The Saints had one of the most difficult schedules during regular season, but their offense was once again able to provide enough production for 11 wins.

    There are tight 60-40 games across the playoffs board that will be updated after each round of games with playoff data. It’ll be interesting to see if rookie head coaches will continue their strong results into the postseason. Even though the Patriots are team to beat again, there is no single team that is head and shoulders ahead of the pack.

    The experience from previous Super Bowls is lifting some team’s probabilities a bit. New England, New Orleans and Pittsburgh have head coaches that have won Superbowls with their current teams. Stability helps. Head coaches of Kansas City, Atlanta and Carolina have Super Bowl experience on their resumes as well. Rookie head coaches and others with only little experience from the playoffs have to catchup in a hurry, with teams like Tennessee and Buffalo calculated at Super Bowl winning probabilities of 1%.

    Check back after every round for updated playoff projections

    AccuScore’s Expert NFL Game Picks: Click Here!

  • Concussion: Rob Gronkowski Super Bowl 52 Analysis

    Written by AccuScore
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    Gronk or No Gronk? Does it Even Matter?

    AccuScore's full forecast and expert picks for the Patriots vs the Eagles on Sunday are live:SuperBowl 52 Picks

    Not a member? This is the best time to join! Sign up now and you'll get ALL of AccuScore's 2018 NFL regular season picks + all of the 2019 NFL Playoffs... Join AccuScore Today!*

    *Use code SB25 for 25% off an ALL SPORTS membership: Limited time Offer!
    *First time members get a free 7-day trial of AccuScore’s full site when you register for a monthly membership.

    Even though it looks pretty certain that Rob Gronkowski will be ready for the big game on Sunday, Accuscore simulated out the scenario where the Patriots are without their star tight end. Gronkowski has been one of the top tight ends in the NFL since his debut to the league in 2010. However, he has been injured multiple times during his career and missed games in every season since 2012. So, if Gronk misses the Super Bowl, this is far from uncharted territory.

    In terms of Sunday's stage, Rob Gronkowski has played twice. In Super Bowl XLVI, when the Patriots lost the NY Giants, he was non-factor and later revealed the injury in his ankle. In Super Bowl XLIX win over Seattle, he played on an elite level with 6 catches and one TD. A year ago, though, he was watching from the sidelines as Tom Brady led an incredible comeback win against the Falcons.

    In Accuscore simulations Rob Gronkowski is predicted to get 5 caches for 68 yards and have highest probability to catch a TD among any New England players. When simulating the Super Bowl without Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen as a starting TE, there is not a massive difference because the Patriots have history of winning without Gronk. On average, the Patriots will score only a point less than without Gronkowski.

    The outcome of the simulations shows that the Patriots have figured the ways to win with and without Gronkowski. One good example was the AFC Conference championship a week ago. Gronkowski was injured during the game and New England was down 10 points in 4th quarter, but Tom Brady led yet another comeback and won by 4 points to advance to Super Bowl. Of course, Gronk helps, but AccuScore's computer says the Patriots can win without him.

    Other Previews:
    AccuScore's Super Bowl 52 Preview and Analyst Pick
    AccuScore's Super Bowl 52 Prop Bets - Odds & Picks

  • Super Bowl 52 Prop Bets: Odds Analysis - Points

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Super Bowl Prop Bets – Analyst Preview & Pick

    The Super Bowl is right around the corner and that means one thing -- one final pro football matchup to wager on. Let's take a look at a few prop bets for this weekend's Super Bowl matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots.

    First quarter point total 9.5 [OVER 9.5 (-130), UNDER 9.5 (-Even)]

    This one popped out to us immediately. Is it possible that neither team scores a TD in the first quarter? Let's take a look at some recent trends.

    Only five of the last 16 Super Bowl matchups have yielded more than nine points in the first quarter.

    But someone has to score a TD, right? And someone has to put up a field goal along with that? Right? Okay, let's take it a bit further.

    In the last seven Super Bowl matchups the Patriots have been involved in, the average is just a shade over 2 points total in the first quarter.

    NFL offensive coordinators tend to be a bit more conservative to start Super Bowl matchups.

    While we don't necessarily have quarter by quarter data, the 10,000-plus simulations suggest taking the OVER. The projected final score is 30-21, which would indicate double-digit scoring in each quarter -- on average.

    Which team will score first? [Philadelphia Eagles (-105), New England Patriots (-125)]

    This one's tough. But looking at the Patriots' previous Super Bowl matchups, it's clear they're a second half team. They're not necessarily worried about coming out of the gates with all cylinders firing -- they know they can even come back from a 28-3 deficit.

    With that in mind, it seems like a logical wager to think the Eagles will come out a little more desperate to get a lead.

    Eagles QB Nick Foles is known for throwing the ball downfield early and often, and we know Philly will need an early score to establish some confidence.

    AccuScore's full forecast and expert picks for the Patriots vs the Eagles on Sunday are live:SuperBowl 52 Picks

    Margin of Victory
    • Eagles by 1-6 points, 4/1 odds
    • Eagles by 7-12 points, 15/2 odds
    • Eagles by 13-18 points, 14/1 odds
    • Eagles by 19-24 points, 25/1 odds
    • Eagles by 25-30 points, 40/1 odds
    • Eagles by 31-36 points, 66/1odds
    • Eagles by 37-42 points, 100/1 odds
    • Eagles by 43+ points, 100/1 odds
    • Patriots by 1-6 points, 3/1 odds
    • Patriots by 7-12 points, 4/1 odds
    • Patriots by 13-18 points, 6/1 odds
    • Patriots by 19-24 points, 9/1 odds
    • Patriots by 25-30 points, 16/1 odds
    • Patriots by 31-36 points, 25/1 odds
    • Patriots by 37-42 points, 40/1 odds
    • Patriots by 43+ points, 50/1 odds

    The Patriots, despite their ridiculous amount of success in the past 10 years, haven't won a Super Bowl by more than six points. Now we can see why some of those double-digit margins have such wild odds.

    Analyst's Pick
    Members: Log in at the top right now to reveal AccuScore’s Analyst Pick

    ...New to AccuScore? Try AccuScore Free for 7-days: first time members get a free 7-day trial of AccuScore’s full site when you register for a monthly membership. Join AccuScore Today!*

    *Use code SB25 for 25% off an ALL SPORTS membership...sign up for an annual membership now and you'll get the ENTIRE 2018 NFL regular season and 2019 postseason. It's the best time to join!

  • Super Bowl 52: Eagles vs Patriots - Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Super Bowl 52- Eagles vs Patriots: Preview & Pick

    AccuScore's full forecast and expert picks for the Patriots vs the Eagles on Sunday are live:SuperBowl 52 Picks

    Not a member? This is the best time to join! Sign up now and you'll get ALL of AccuScore's 2018 NFL regular season picks + all of the 2019 NFL Playoffs... Join AccuScore Today!*

    *Use code SB25 for 25% off an ALL SPORTS membership: Limited time Offer!
    *First time members get a free 7-day trial of AccuScore’s full site when you register for a monthly membership.

    Super Bowl LII in Minnesota features the Philadelphia Eagles and oh-so-familiar New England Patriots in a matchup that has the defending champs favored by less than a touchdown. Let's take a closer look at the matchup and where the value is at.

    Vegas Odds

    New England opened as 6-point favorites before some public action brought the spread down a couple points. The total less movement compared to the spread, going up a point since it opened at 47.

    Betting Line: New England Patriots -4
    Total: 48

    At the time of publication, 55 percent of the public were taking the points and picking the Eagles.

    59 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    What to Watch For

    Eagles Run-Pass Option: Nick Foles has excelled with the run-pass option since taking over for Carton Wentz as the Eagles' QB, having completed closed to 94 percent of his run-pass option passes, compared to 61.5 percent in non run-pass option sets. Interestingly enough, the Pats have struggled against the run-pass option, allowing 5.6 yards per play -- fifth most (worst) in the NFL.

    Foles is projected to finish with 273 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

    Weapons: Brandin Cooks as an option downfield for Tom Brady has provided the team with a deep threat that the roster hasn't had in recent memory. With a minimum of 50 receptions, no player in the Tom Brady era has averaged more yards per reception in a season (16.6) than Cooks did in 2017. Taking it a step further, he led the league in defensive pass interference yards drawn -- accumulating a total of 209 yards on the season including playoffs so far.

    Cooks is projected to finish with 52 yards on 4 receptions. Brady is projected to finish with 278 passing yards and 2 TDs.

    Analyst's Pick
    Members: Log in at the top right now to reveal AccuScore’s Analyst Pick

    ...New to AccuScore? Try AccuScore Free for 7-days: first time members get a free 7-day trial of AccuScore’s full site when you register for a monthly membership. Join AccuScore Today!*

    *Use code SB25 for 25% off an ALL SPORTS membership...sign up for an annual membership now and you'll get the ENTIRE 2018 NFL regular season and 2019 postseason. It's the best time to join!

    Other Previews: AccuScore's Super Bowl 52 Prop Bets - Odds & Picks