• Analyst Pick: Dodgers vs Diamondbacks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    LA Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks – 4th of July

    July 4th MLB action features a slate of must-watch games, but the night caps off in Los Angeles as the 52-31 Arizona Diamondbacks head to Chavez Ravine for a matchup with Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. L.A. is a home favorite, listed at about -270 on the money line, with Arizona getting +245.

    Dodgers vs Diamondbacks

    Don't let the odds fool you - this matchup projects to be a lot more competitive than initial Vegas odds indicate. The Diamondbacks have 18 of their 31 losses on the road this season, but enter this series with tons of momentum, coming off a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies. The Dodgers have a 2.5-game lead over the Diamondbacks in the NL West heading into Tuesday's matchup.

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    Betting Trends

    • The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 road games.
    • The Diamondbacks are 18-6 in their last 24 overall.
    • The Diamondbacks are 18-6 in their last 24 games on grass.
    • The UNDER is 7-1 in the Dodgers' last 8 games following a loss.
    • The Dodgers are 46-15 in their last 61 home games.
    • The Dodgers are 25-9 in their last 34 games played on a Tuesday.

    What to Watch For

    Kershaw makes his 18th start of the season, with Patrick Corbin (6-7, 4.76 ERA) on the mound for Arizona. Corbin got the start against the Dodgers on April 15, giving up 5 runs (3 earned) in six innings of a 8-4 loss. Kershaw -- despite his 12-2 record with a 2.32 ERA on the season -- has struggled this year. Well, relatively. He has already given up a career-high 17 home runs, but seems to be getting back on track in his past few starts.

    Keep an eye on Dodgers catcher and second baseman Austin Barnes. He had a strong outing against Corbin last time around with a HR against the lefty. Barnes heads into Tuesday's matchup after putting up 7 RBIs and 2 HRs on Friday vs San Diego.

    Best Bet(s)

    Looking at who's on the mound for L.A., it's tough to suggest any pick other than the Dodgers winning this game. The Dodgers win approximately 65 percent of simulated matchups.

    Trends vs Data

    AccuScore sim data suggets taking the OVER in this game - the total combined score goes OVER 7.5 in over 57 percent of simulations.

    Recent trends between these two teams, however, suggest the opposite. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Diamondbacks' last 6 games when playing on the road against the Dodgers.

    With Arizona's relative struggles on the road and Kershaw on the mound, my lean would be on the UNDER.

  • Analyst Pick: Red Sox vs Blue Jays

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Analyst Pick: Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

    The Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays Monday in a matchup that opened with the home side slightly favored at -130 on the money line (ML) in Vegas, indicating a 56.5 percentage chance of winning. The line settled to -123 at the time of publication, with the Blue Jays getting +113 money line odds. The total is set at 9.5.

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    Pitching Matchup

    Stroman heads into Monday's matchup with a 9-5 record and an ERA of 3.28. He has 93 strikeouts over the 112.1 innings he's pitched this season, allowing about 9.1 hits per 9 innings pitched. Toronto's bullpen hasn't been relatively as great with an ERA of 4.29. The team overall is No. 18 in the majors with an ERA of 4.57.

    Boston's Eduard Rodriguez heads into this matchup with a 4-2 record and an ERA of 3.54. He has given up 49 hits in the 61 innings pitched this season, allowing about 7.2 hits per 9 innings pitched. He's backed up by a bullpen that has an ERA of just 3.08, with the team overall allowing 8.6 hits per nine innings. They're No. 3 in the majors with a team ERA of 3.79.

    Key Stat No. 1: Boston is No. 2 in opponent strikeouts per walk at 1.98.

    Key Stat No. 2: The Red Sox rank No. 2 of 30 MLB teams in opponent strikeouts per nine innings (7.12), a few ticks behind league-leading Houston (6.86).

    Key Stat No. 3: Boston is No. 4 in terms opponent stolen base percentage; Toronto, on the other hand, is ranked No. 28 of 30 in the same category.

    What to Watch For

    Stroman has been fairly impressive this season for Toronto, entering this matchup after giving up just one run and six hits his last time out (July 8). He was favored slightly on the money line (-137) and came through for bettors. Batters are connecting on his pitches less than 32 percent of the time, and just a shade over 18 percent of his fly balls end up as HRs.

    Betting Trends

    Toronto is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Boston.
    • Toronto is 2-5 in their last 7 vs. the AL East.
    • Toronto is 6-15 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter.
    • Toronto is 6-13 in Stroman’s last 19 road starts.
    • Boston is 11-4 in their last 15 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
    • Boston is 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last five starts at home.
    • The UNDER is 18-6-3 in Toronto's last 27 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
    • The UNDER is 6-2 in Boston's last eight home games.
    • The UNDER is 4-0 in Rodriguez’s last 4 home starts.
    • The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Rodriguez’s last 22 starts vs. the AL East.
    • The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two sides in Boston.

    Analyst's Pick

    Boston averages 4.8 runs per game in 2017; Toronto averages 4.16. The averages for this current season indicate a pick on the UNDER.

    The Red Sox are struggling on offense over the last week or so, and best of all, the UNDER is a our-star AccuScore hot trend pick.

    I'll take the UNDER.

  • Baseball Picks: 2017 MLB Regular Season Recap

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    MLB Futures Picks Win Big AGAIN!

    With the regular season over, we take a look back at AccuScore’s predictions from the start of the season, when AccuScore simulated every regular season games 10,000 times with theseresults.

    Naturally, AccuScore made six season totals picks at the start of the season. And naturally, of the six picks, AccuScore predicted five season over/unders correctly. Cincinnati went Under by 5.5 wins, Detroit went Under by 21.5 wins, Minnesota went Over by 14.5 wins, the New York Mets went Under by 19.5 games and the Baltimore Orioles went Under by 9.5 wins. In truth, these were comfortable winners.

    The Colorado Rockies outperformed the computer’s expectations and even bagged a wild card spot. 100 units wagered on each pick would have returned 350 in profit into your pocket. Even though your money is tied up a bit longer in season future bets, 58.3% ROI is difficult to beat. Reminder that the value picks from 2016 season had three out of three correct.

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    Generally, the biggest surprises during the regular season were the Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins and Arizona Diamondbacks with record 13-14 wins more than Vegas offered a season earlier. For Arizona, Houston and Minnesota, this means the season continues into the playoffs.

    On the other hand biggest disappointments were the Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants and New York Mets, which all dropped 20+ wins fewer than Vegas linemakers calculated before the season. When comparing results from last year, the Giants and Tigers win total dropped over 20 games between these two seasons.

    Before the season Accuscore predicted five teams that had over 70% probability to reach playoffs. The Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Indians, LA Dodgers and Washington Nationals performed as predicted and are playing during the postseason. Only the Toronto Blue Jays struggled quite a bit and were not able to live up the predictions and expectations for American League’s runner up from the 2016 had.

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  • Friday's Analyst Pick: Cardinals vs Pirates

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    MLB Friday: Cardinals at Pirates

    Friday features a slate of MLB action and it's about time. Monday and Tuesday might have been entertaining in terms of fanfare, but regular game action means one thing - attractive wagering opportunities.

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    Betting Trends

    Let's take a look at a matchup and what stands out.

    Cardinals @ Pirates | Friday, 4:05 PM Pacific

    The Pittsburgh Pirates -- assuming weather doesn't become a factor -- will host the St. Louis Cardinals with the home side slightly favored (-120) and the total set at 8. The Cards have Mike Leake (6-7, 3.12 ERA) on the mound, matched up across from the Pirates' Gerrit Cole (7-7, 4.43).

    From the St. Louis side, Leake enters the matchup with 74 strikeouts over his 109.2 innings pitched this season; he has given up 102 hits. He allows 8.4 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 3.96. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.12. As a team, St. Louis allows 8.5 hits per nine innings, striking out 8.4 batters. They are 6th in the league in team earned run average at 3.97.

    For Pittsburgh, Cole has 94 strikeouts over the 107.2 innings he has pitched, giving up 113 hits.. He's also given up 113 hits. He allows 9.4 hits per nine innings. As a team, Pittsburgh is 12th in the league in team ERA 4.19.

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    Analyst's Pick: Pittsburgh has a slight edge being at home, but their bullpen ranks No. 23 in the league in terms of giving up HRs. With AccuScore data heavily suggesting the UNDER, the lean is on the Cards and the UNDER. St. Louis is 7-2 straight up (SU) in their last nine against Pittsburgh.

    Another trend that points towards going with AccuScore's St. Louis pick is the fact that Pittsburgh struggles after wins this season. They're 1-5 SU in their last six games after a win.

    Cards get the slight upset win on the road with the total staying UNDER 8

  • How To: AccuScore's Baseball Betting System

    Also, please see: AccuScore's NFL and NCAA Football System Explained

    How to Use AccuScore's Baseball Picks

    New to AccuScore or haven't been here in a while? We got you. Here's how AccuScore works:

    First of all, since we're talking about baseball picks, click on "Baseball" at the top of the any AccuScore.com as demonstrated with the giant red arrow below:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    Boom! Now you're on the baseball picks page. If you're not logged in as a member, you'll see one free game listed and all the other games will be shaded out. So, it's best to log in here and get full access to all the games. Click "Login" at the top right of the page, as demonstrated by the green arrow in the image below.

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    And so, now that you're in member mode, there are two primary ways to read AccuScore's picks. The graph view is the default view with the shaded in circle, but you can also enter the grid mode by clicking on the purple arrow in the image above.

    Graph Mode vs Grid Mode

    The default Graph Mode shows two circles. The Outside circle shows AccuScore's simulations results, i.e. Moneyline Picks. Meanwhile, the inside circle displays the current Las Vegas odds converted into a percentage. The visual of the odds and AccuScore's percentages side-by-side allows you to see the Side Value as the dark blue shaded portion of the inner circle. Hovering over the dark region, you can see the amount of Side Value the computer calculates, as displayed in the image below:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    Above the circles, one finds star-ratings for the moneyline pick and for the Side Value pick. These stars rate from 1 to 4, with a 4-star pick meaning that a significant number of historic trends increases the computer's confidence in that particular pick.

    Below the circles in the shaded bottom third of the box, there is an Over/Under pick. In the example above, the computer's pick is listed as "Under" with the total runs line set at 8.5 runs. Next to "8.5" AccuScore shares its confidence in the pick by detailing that 59.4% of AccuScore's simulations went Under 8.5 runs.

    Next to the Totals pick, AccuScore also lists a Run Line pick. In the example above, AccuScore's pick is the New York Mets with a +1.0 runs handicap. In this case, only 44.9% of simulations ended with the Mets winning outright, while 25.1% of simulations ended with the Mets losing by exactly one run and the Nationals winning by 2 or more runs 38.0% of the time. As such, the pick is Mets +1, as this is the most likely outcome.

    Grid Mode: Ode to the Old Times

    Go back a couple images and the purple arrow shows you how to enter Grid Mode. Once there, You'll see something like this:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    The grid system is built on showing value and picks via numbers instead of images. So, here's the breakdown, reading left to right on the image above:

    "Date" and "Team" should be pretty self-explanatory.

    Then, we get into "Acc Sim%" - This is AccuScore's simulation results. In the example above, Kansas City won 36.4% of simulations, while Seattle won 63.6% of AccuScore's simulations.

    The "Odds%" column is Las Vegas moneyline odds converted to a percentage. Seeing the percentages side-by-side shows you where the value is. In the Seattle vs Kansas City game, AccuScore's 63.6% for Seattle to win is greater than Vegas's 56.4% to win, so there is value in picking Seattle on the moneyline in this example.

    "PS" is short for Point Spread, which means the handicap pick. The picks are listed in order: "Seattle -1.0, CHW +1.0, etc."

    "OU" on top of "ACC OU" is the Over/Under, or Totals, pick. The top row displays the current Total Runs line in Las Vegas. Below it, AccuScore lists the computer's calculated line. If it's higher than the Las Vegas line, the pick is Over. If it's lower than the Vegas line, the pick is Under. Simple.

    The Grid view also allows you to sort picks by star ratings for Moneyline, Side Value or Totals.

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    By clicking on the yellow arrow (below) in either mode, you can enter the full game forecast. The blue arrow points to the written free preview and trends available for all games.

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    Inside the game preview, you can adjust the handicap lines and adjust the Over/Under lines to see AccuScore's percentages at any different line within reason. Using the red arrow in the image below, you can use AccuScore's extra tools to adjust Handicap Lines, Totals lines and view player props. The green arrows below display how to use the tool to adjust lines.

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    Want more?

    AccuScore forecasts also feature fantasy data, team trends and an archive of all of AccuScore's past picks for download. Just scroll down in the forecast to see even more expert analysis and trends:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    July 2017 - Top Baseball Trends

    Entering July, here's a quick rundown of AccuScore's top trends:

    • All Moneyline Pick when Home Team is 45% to 55% to win in Simulations:
    – 258-206 55.6% +2,540 units profit

    • All Side Value Picks when Vegas Lists Home Team from -109 to +109:
    – 143-116, 55% +2138

    • NY Yankees – All Side Value Picks as Vegas Road Underdog:
    – 15-3, 83.3% +1321

    • Baltimore Orioles – All Moneyline Picks as a Road Underdog
    – 23-7, 76.6% +1,091.

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  • MLB Analyst Preview: Tigers v Rangers

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Preview (53-64) Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers (56-60)

    Projected Pitchers: Justin Verlander (8-7) – 3.97 ERA vs A.J. Griffin (5-3) – 5.40 ERA
    Moneyline Odds: Tigers -113, Rangers +103
    Total: 10.5

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    We've got an AL showdown Monday night between the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers, both on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. The Rangers have won two-of-three previous games this season against the Tigers, but head into Monday's matchup as slight home underdogs.

    Verlander enters the matchup after giving up just one hit and zero runs in eight innings against the San Diego Padres. The Rangers' bats, though, come into this game with plenty of momentum, winning three of their last four and taking the season series over the Houston Astros.

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulation Data

    Vegas has the home Rangers as slight home 'dogs, but AccuScore data actually has Texas winning the majority of games.

    With the Rangers winning about 55 percent of sims, AccuScore would have listed them at a -120 or -125 on the money line -- making the +103 very attractive.

    Betting Trends
    - The Tigers are 2-7 straight up (SU) in their last nine games overall, and on grass.
    - The Rangers are 7-1 in Griffin's last eight Tuesday starts.
    - The Rangers are 21-7 in Griffin's last 28 starts on grass.
    -The Rangers are 10-3 in Griffin's last 13 starts.

    Analyst Pick on the Total

    Most books in Vegas have the total set at 10 or 10.5, but AccuScore sims actually have that number down at 9 -- indicating a pick on the UNDER.

    About 53 percent of sims stay below the total. The UNDER is 7-3-1 in the Tigers' last 11 Tuesday games.

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  • Rangers vs Marlins - Monday Baseball Analysis

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Date/Time: July 24, 5:05 PM Pacific

    Money Line Odds: Marlins +125 odds | Rangers -145 odds
    Over Under Total: 11
    Pitching Matchup: Adam Conley (2-3, 6.75 ERA) vs. Martin Perez (5-7, 4.72 ERA)

    Rangers vs Marlins: Betting Analysis

    We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore simulation data are on opposite sides of the money line, and that's exactly the type of situation we have in this matchup.

    Whereas the Rangers are home favorites -- with about a 59 percent chance of winning (-145 ML) -- AccuScore sim data actually has the Marlins as slight road favorites. AccuScore sim data would have listed Texas between +110 and +105, suggesting the opposite of value when comparing to the actual odds listed in Vegas.

    Miami, though, shows some potential winning over 52 percent of simulated matchups. AccuScore data would have listed them at about -110, making the actual +125 odds fairly attractive.

    • The Marlins are 8-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games on the road.
    • The Rangers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
    • The Rangers are 2-4 straight up (SU) in their last six vs the Marlins.

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    Hot Trend

    All signs point to this being a high-scoring contest. Miami is in the bottom third of the league when it comes to defense on the road, giving up about 5 runs per game; Texas, at the same time, is in the top-five in offense at home.

    There's a four-star hot trend on the total, with the majority of simulated matchups going OVER.

    • The total has gone OVER in four of the Rangers' last six games.

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  • Royals vs Orioles: Expert Analysis, Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles

    The Kansas City Royals head to Oriole Park Monday for a matchup with Ubaldo Jimenez and the Baltimore Orioles, with the home side opening as slight underdogs on the money line (+113). Kansas City, with Danny Duffy set to start, opened at -123 on the money line, with the total set at 10.

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    Pitching Matchup

    Duffy (7-6) enters Monday's matchup with an ERA of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.27. He gives up about 8.9 hits per nine innings, on pace with the rest of his team as the Royals as a whole allow 8.8 hits per nine innings. As a team, Kansas City is No. 11 in the majors with an ERA of 4.15. They have been extraordinary in terms of home runs (HR) given up, ranking No. 28 in the MLB with 108 allowed HRs.

    Jimenez (4-7), with his ERA of 6.93 and a 1.56 WHIP, gives up about 9.9 hits per nine innings pitched, a stark difference when comparing to Duffy's numbers. He is on pace with his team, though, as Baltimore gives up the same 9.9 hits per nine innings as a team. They're No. 29 in the majors in team ERA (5.15), and have given up 154 HRs this season -- third most in the majors.

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulation Data - Value on the Home 'Dog

    We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore sim data are on opposite sides of the money line. Whereas Vegas odds have Baltimore as slight home underdogs, the sim data has them as favorites -- indicating a pick on the Orioles.

    The Orioles win about 51 percent of simulations, making the +105 odds at the time of publication fairly attractive.

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    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sims

  • Yankees vs Indians Analysis, Expert Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    MLB Tuesday: Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees Analysis

    Moneyline: Cleveland Indians -105, New York Yankees -105
    Total: Over 9.5 (+107), Under 9.5 (-117)

    Pitching Matchup

    Cleveland's Trevor Bauer is 13-8 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 25 starts and 26 games this season. He hasn’t recorded a loss since July 16, and got the win last time out against NY. Against the Yankees on August 4, Bauer pitched 7 innings and gave up a run, seven hits and two walks in a 7-2 victory.

    New York's Jaime Garcia is 5-8 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the season. Garcia doesn’t have a win on the season for NY yet, but two of his starts did finish as wins for the team. Against Cleveland on August 4, Garcia gave up 6 runs -- 5 of which were earned -- 5 hits, , and 4 walks in 4.2 innings pitched.

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    Vegas vs AccuScore

    At the time of publication, the Yankees and Indians are both listed at -105 on the money line, indicating about a 51.2 percent chance of winning.

    AccuScore sims, however, have New York winning about 60 percent of simulated matchups, indicating a hot trend pick on the home side. The sim data would have listed New York at -155, making the -105 highly attractive.

    Analyst's Pick

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