Rams vs Saints: NFL Week 12 Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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LA Rams vs New Orleans Saints: Analyst Pick

Week 12 in the NFL continues Sunday with 12 games on the slate to wrap up the weekend. In one of the marquee afternoon matchups, the 7-3 Los Angeles Rams host the 8-2 New Orleans Saints. Vegas odds and AccuScore sims are on different sides of this one -- let's take a closer look at why our data suggests a bit more value on the road 'dog.

Vegas Odds
There's been quite a bit of action from the public on this game, but the lines have held since they opened. The total dropped just a half-point since opening at 54, while the spread's held at -2 for the Rams.

Betting Line: LA Rams -2/-2.5
Total: 54

At the time of publication, about 57 percent of the public were taking the points on the road and picking NOLA.

67 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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Betting Trends
-New Orleans is 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven games on the road.
-New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.

What to Watch For

Defensively, the Saints have been much better this season compared to last. In fact, it's been their defense that's led to such a strong start to the season. Last week, however, was relatively sub par as the Washington Redskins put up 456 yards of total offense in a 34-31 OT victory for New Orleans. Redskins QB Kirk Cousins threw for 322 yards and three TDs against the Saints' secondary.

Rams QB Jared Goff is projected to finish with 246 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT against the Saints. The New Orleans defense is projected to projected to force at least 1 takeaway Sunday, with about two times the probability of forcing an INT than recovering a fumble.

Why does AccuScore think the Saints have a good chance at pulling off the upset this week?

The Rams defense struggled against the Minnesota Vikings last week, giving up 451 total yards -- including 171 on the ground. The defense as a whole has been solid this season, but they have struggled in containing the run. They give up about 123 rushing yards per game.

Last week running backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram combined for 176 yards and 1 TD in the win. Watch for their production early as it should have a direct correlation to the Saints' chances at keeping this game close on the road. The Saints win 81 percent of simulated matchups when they commit fewer turnovers than the Rams.

Analyst's Pick
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