Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Thursday Night Football: Week 2
We're always interested when Las Vegas odds and AccuScore simulations pick different favorites and this week's Thursday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets gives us just that.
All eyes are on this Week 2 Thursday night matchup with both teams looking to avoid an 0-2 start.
What do the sims say?
At the time of publication, the consensus in Vegas has the Bills as slight home 'dogs in their matchup against the Jets.
Buffalo is getting -108 on the money line, with the Jets at -104.
AccuScore simulations, however, have the Bills winning nearly 60 percent of simulations, making the -108 very attractive. There's about 8% of Side Value on picking the Bill, as Vegas is undervaluing Buffalo at -108.
AccuScore has expert picks and analysis for every game... ALL NFL Week 2 Game Picks
How will QB Ryan Fitzpatrick play?
The Jets had a chance to reach the postseason in 2015 with one game remaining in the regular season - a road contest vs Buffalo. They lost, and did so for the second time that season.
For the Jets, their winning probability comes down to how manageable Fitzpatrick's turnovers are. He was horrendous against Buffalo last season, combining for 49.9 rating in both 2015 matchups. He went on to have three fourth-quarter INTs in that ever-so-important Week 17 matchup last season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick averages 1.3 TDs and 0.8 INTs per simulated game; Bills QB Tyrod Taylor, on the other hand, averages just 0.4 INTs for his 1.3 TDs.
Betting Trends
• Buffalo is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games in Week 2.
• NY Jets are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games on the road after a loss on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in the NY Jets' last 3 games against Buffalo.
