NFL: Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons - Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons: Analyst Pick

The Dallas Cowboys -- coming off a big win over Kansas City -- head to Atlanta to match up with the Falcons. Running back Ezekiel Elliot has been the focal point of most NFL discussions this week after the court upheld his initial suspension.

No 'Zeke, no problem -- at least according to our simulations.

Vegas Odds

The total has seen plenty of movement over the past few days. Atlanta opened up as 3-point favorites before settling at -3.5. The total, however, dropped to 48-to-48.5 after opening at 53.

Betting Line: Atlanta Falcon -3.5
Total: 48.5

At the time of publication, about 60 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Cowboys. 65 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
-The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
-Dallas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road.
-The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 21 games on the road.

What to Watch For
With Elliot out, it'll be a trio of Alfred Morris, Darren McFadden, and Rod Smith who'll be expected to try and come close to the production they have otherwise.

McFadden leads the way in sims for Dallas, averaging the most TDs per sim (0.5) amongst the backs. He's projected to put up 71 yards on 14 carries.

The Cowboys' defense hasn't been all that subpar this year, giving up 22.2 points per game which is good for No. 15 in the league. This game largely depends on how often they can force Matt Ryan and the Falcons' offense to settle for FGs.

The Dallas defense averages about 1 forced turnover per sim, with a slightly her probability of a forced fumble as opposed to a pick.

Matt Ryan is projected to finish with 280 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages just 0.3 INTs per sim, compared to 2.0 TDs per sim.

Analyst's Pick
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