• Royals vs Orioles: Expert Analysis, Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles

    The Kansas City Royals head to Oriole Park Monday for a matchup with Ubaldo Jimenez and the Baltimore Orioles, with the home side opening as slight underdogs on the money line (+113). Kansas City, with Danny Duffy set to start, opened at -123 on the money line, with the total set at 10.

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    Pitching Matchup

    Duffy (7-6) enters Monday's matchup with an ERA of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.27. He gives up about 8.9 hits per nine innings, on pace with the rest of his team as the Royals as a whole allow 8.8 hits per nine innings. As a team, Kansas City is No. 11 in the majors with an ERA of 4.15. They have been extraordinary in terms of home runs (HR) given up, ranking No. 28 in the MLB with 108 allowed HRs.

    Jimenez (4-7), with his ERA of 6.93 and a 1.56 WHIP, gives up about 9.9 hits per nine innings pitched, a stark difference when comparing to Duffy's numbers. He is on pace with his team, though, as Baltimore gives up the same 9.9 hits per nine innings as a team. They're No. 29 in the majors in team ERA (5.15), and have given up 154 HRs this season -- third most in the majors.

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulation Data - Value on the Home 'Dog

    We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore sim data are on opposite sides of the money line. Whereas Vegas odds have Baltimore as slight home underdogs, the sim data has them as favorites -- indicating a pick on the Orioles.

    The Orioles win about 51 percent of simulations, making the +105 odds at the time of publication fairly attractive.

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    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sims

  • Soccer Hot Trends: Premier League Profit Party

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    Soccer Betting Profits Keep Pouring in

    As Champions League continues this week to the knock out phase, it is a good time to look back and review how well Accuscore’s soccer predictions have performed over the past few weeks. Currently, we predict every single game form 10 different leagues, as MLS off season continues.

    Since the last checkpoint in the middle of January, the total profit when betting 100 units to every game with any side value is +7349. This brings up the total profit since start of the season +13400! It's been a good month since we last checked in and told you to get on the ride.

    If we placed bets only for the games where our predictions showed over 20% side value, the results were even better. This type of betting strategy brought +9138 dollars pure profit into your pockets. When reviewing all games since start of the season with over 20% side value, the total profit sums up to +20,076 dollars!

    During these last weeks the best accuracy of predictions was achieved when betting all side value games in the Premier League. That resulted +3764 dollars profit. EPL is the single best league for profit generation since start of the season as the magic number reached over +8500 right now.

    Accuscore accuracy has been very good across the board, as every league generated profit in over 20% side value bets, except Laliga. There, the losses were not so great, only 250 compared to overall profit +9138 dollars…

    Two other leagues with solid accuracy were Serie A and Ligue 1, where the profit from last four weeks were +1828 and +1424 when betting those over 20% side value bets. It is worth to mention that the accurate predictions in Serie A have provided profits in every checkpoint during this season.

    Even though total bets were slightly unprofitable - 209 dollars from all games - the total profit since start of the season is climbing very nicely. Our customers who bet 100 dollars for every total and every side value over 20% based on our predictions would have received so far over +34k pure profit to their pockets. We don’t expect this trend to change during the rest of the season. So, if you didn't listen last time, don't miss the boat now.

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  • USC vs UCLA: Odds, Preview, Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    USC vs UCLA: Rivalry Week Analyst Pick

    It's rivalry week and we've got a fun Pac-12 matchup in LA featuring two of the best QBs in the nation as USC hosts UCLA at the LA Memorial Coliseum. The Trojans dominated last year's matchup 36-14 as they dominated the time of possession (43:47).

    USC vs UCLA 2017

    Vegas Odds
    There has been very little movement on the spread or total since they opened earlier this week. The Trojans opened at 15-point favorites before settling in a half-point higher.

    Betting Line: USC -15.5
    Total: 71.5

    At the time of publication, about 61 percent of the public was laying the points at home and taking USC. 73 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

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    Betting Trends


    • The total has gone OVER in seven of UCLA's last 10 games.
    • The total has gone OVER in four of USC's last five games.
    • USC is 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games at home.

    What to Watch For
    Since putting up just 14 points against Notre Dame, the USC offense has gotten back on track averaging 45 points and 590 yards of offense over their last three matchups. The Trojans' offense goes as QB Sam Darnold does and he'll look to make a statement against a rival who features a QB that just might be picked ahead of himself in next year's NFL Draft.

    Darnold is projected to finish with 320 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT.

    UCLA heads into this matchup coming off a 44-37 win over Arizona State. Although their defense giving up 37 points is somewhat concerning, the offense was firing on all cylinders with QB Josh Rosen. He has been great at home this year, but on-and-off on the road. This is in LA, but still a road game. He enters this matchup with 8 TDs and 7 INTs on the road this year (four games).

    Rosen is projected to finish with 308 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

    Analyst's Pick

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  • Wizards at Celtics: Game 5 Preview

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Washington Wizards vs Boston Celtics: Game 5

    With the best-of-seven series now tied at two games apiece, the Celtics and Wizards head back to Boston for a crucial Game 5. Home court advantage has been a major factor in this series, with role players struggling on the road only to get back on track at home – Bradley Beal being a great example following his 29-point performance in Game 4.

    At the time of publication, the Celtics are a 4-point favorite with the total set at 215.5. There’s only been about a half-point of movement since the lines opened at 4.5 points and 216, respectively.

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    AccuScore Simulations

    There’s a four-star AccuScore hot trend on this game’s spread, suggesting a slightly closer game than Vegas lines indicate. The Wizards – coached by Scott Brooks – have proven multiple times this season they’re capable of making defensive adjustments.

    Similar to Tuesday’s Rockets-Spurs matchup, simulation data seems to be going against recent betting trends. While the hot trend from simulations indicates an against the spread (ATS) pick on the Wizards, betting trend suggest otherwise.

    • Boston is 5-0 straight up (SU) and ATS in their last five games following back-to-back losses.
    • Washington is 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road.

    Sim data also indicates a different pick on the total, compared to recent trends. AccuScore simulations have the total set 2.5 points lower than that in Vegas, suggesting the UNDER. The total, though, has gone OVER in five of Boston’s last six playoff home games as a favorite.

    Wizards vs Celtics - Game 5
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    What to Watch For

    The Wizards have been incredibly successful on the defensive end with Markieff Morris on the floor, outscoring the Celtics by a shade of 28 points per 100 possessions. According to Basketball Insiders, Morris has only played 92 minutes in the series, compared to 138 minutes for Marcin Gortat and 150+ for other starters. His ankle injury earlier in the series has affected his overall time on the floor, but keep an eye on his presence on the floor because it has had direct positive impact on Washington’s defense.

    After scoring just 14 points in Game 2 and 11 points in Game 3, Bradley Beal broke out in Game 4 with 29 points. He shot 69 percent from the field in Game 4, after shooting just 37 percent in Games 1-3. It's unfair to expect another 60-plus percent shooting performance from Beal, but his aggressiveness on defense clearly had a positive impact on his offensive production. By having to guard Thomas, Avery Bradley, and Marcus Smart, Beal got himself more engaged in the action early on. Watch for him to be aggressive Wednesday night, especially in the first half as he looks to build from his Game 4 success.

    Why’s the Boston money line potentially the safest pick? Washington somehow kept Isaiah Thomas off the free throw line. That’s not going to happen in back-to-back games, especially with Game 5 in Boston.

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