• ACC: College Football Preview

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    ACC Preview

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    The ACC took a step forward in in the 2016-2017 season, and the conference projects to be as competitive as ever despite losing some quality talent to the pro level.

    Programs like Florida State and Louisville head into the season with high expectations given the solid QBs on both sides. Clemson -- last year's national champs -- have an uphill battle ahead of them, listed in Vegas with the third-best odds to win the conference.

    The conference is for the taking and our simulations seem to be providing some value.

    Florida State vs Louisville: -110 vs +500

    The Seminoles head into the season as the favorite to win the conference, listed at a -110 to win the conference. Their win total is listed at 9.5 in most books, with the majority of the public so far leaning on the OVER.

    QB DeAndre Francois is projected to be a star after his freshman season, and RB Cam Akers -- one of the best RB recruits in the nation -- should be able to carry the load on the ground.

    AccuScore simulations suggest taking the UNDER on Florida State, though, with the simulated win total for the season closer to a shade below 9.

    The sims suggest looking past Florida State, and taking the value the Louisville Cardinals provide. At +500 to win the conference, there's more than enough upside in the pick.

    And having the former Heisman Trophy winner clearly makes a difference with our sims projecting the Cardinals to go OVER their season win total (9.5).

    What might be most impressive about the Lousville roster is the defense bringing back seven starters, including three in the secondary. As long as they get through their first month of play -- with a road matchup at UNC and a home contest vs Clemson -- Louisville winning the conference is an attractive wager.

    How will Clemson fare?

    Similar to Louisville, Clemson has the benefit of bringing back some individuals who should allow for the program to maintain its level of play from last year. Four offensive lineman and three defensive lineman are returning, making the potential QB struggles much more manageable.

    No Deshaun Watson, no problem with a unit that's projecting to be the best defensive line in the nation.

    AccuScore sims indicate the OVER on Clemson's projected win total (9.5).

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    2017 ACC Conference Odds
    • Florida State -110
    • Louisville +500
    • Clemson +350
    • Miami +500
    • Virginia Tech +900
    • North Carolina State +2500
    • Pittsburgh +5000
    • Georgia Tech +3300
    • North Carolina +2800
    • Duke +8000
    • Boston College +20000
    • Syracuse +15000
    • Virginia +15000
    • Wake Forest +15000

    College Football Game Picks: There are already a few games up for this weekend... College Football Expert Picks

  • AFC East: 2017 NFL Previews

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    FINALLY! AccuScore's Week 1 Picks for the 2017 NFL season are LIVE! So, what are you waiting for?
    AccuScore's NFL Picks

    Next on AccuScore’s NFL 2017 Season previews is the AFC East:

    AFC East: 2017 NFL Season Preview

    2017 AFC East Projections and Preview

    Patriots Still The Team to Beat

    Last season ended as Predicted: The New England Patriots completed another great season with an OT victory in the Super Bowl. During the 17 years of Bill Belichick era, the Patriots have ended the season winning the Super Bowls more often than times they’ve missed the playoffs. Keep in mind that they missed the playoffs with an 11-5 record and it’s easy to see that New England in the Tom Brady-Belichick era has been a thing of beauty.

    In Accuscore’s season simulations, the Patriots are projected to win 13 games and an easily waltz into another AFC East title. The Bills and Jets are more or less not contending, and Miami lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill for season due to injury. According to AccuScore, the AFC East projects to be one of the most lopsided divisions since start of the Accuscore NFL predictions over 10 years ago. The Patriots are pretty much favorite to win every game during the season, but visits to Denver (week 10) and Pittsburgh (week 15) give best chances to opponents to beat New England, but only a catastrophe of epic proportions would see the Patriots missing out on the postseason.

    Roster Moves:

    The Super Bowl winners are an attractive destination over the summer. The Patriots had a few notable exits with starting RB LeGarrette Blount on the offensive side and few pass rushers (Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard) on the defensive side among others. The biggest loss came during the pre-season, when top receiver Julian Edelman injured his knee and is out for the season. Even though the Patriots have been able to plug in players in a past, this year seems a bit different. Then, again, New England just won the Super Bowl and looks like a surety to make win the division.

    Fantasy Analysis: New England Patriots

    For fantasy players, QB Tom Brady is still a dependable, good pickup in early rounds. He is predicted to collect the second most fantasy points during the season among QBs. Moreover, New England’s defense is projected to be Top 3 in the world of NFL fantasy, alongside Denver and Seattle. As TE Martellus Bennett left the team after just one season to the Packers, Patriots’ star TE Rob Gronkowski should carry an additional load. This also means additional fantasy points, and Gronk is predicted to be one of the top fantasy players among TEs. By default, WRs and RBs are more of a committee effort instead of single individual in New England, so AccuScore does not have any WRs or RBs at the top of the Fantasy draft list.

    2016 NFL Betting Record

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    Miami’s Lost Season

    New rookie head coach Adam Gase guided Miami Dolphins to playoffs first time in eight years at the end of last season. It wasn’t very successful trip as they lost to Pittsburgh and the wait for the first playoffs victory since 2000 continues.

    Due to the injury of QB Ryan Tannehill, out for the season, Miami’s predicted record drops from 9-7 to 6-10. This is a staggering drop off, but simulations simply don’t find the linkage between QB Jay Cutler and HC Adam Gase from Chicago very meaningful. However, even with the disappointing projections, Cutler and the Dolphins are projected to finish 2nd in the AFC East. The playoffs appear to be out of reach with around a 5% chance based on Accuscore’s predictions. Both games against New England as well as trip to Kansas City are games with a low win probability for Miami.

    Roster Moves:

    During offseason Miami added few good defensive players to the roster. Ten-year veteran Lawrence Timmons from Pittsburgh and TJ McDonald (who is suspended for first 8 games of the season) from the LA Rams are improvements in their respective positions. As noted, the biggest change to the roster came with QB Tannehill injured himself in training camp and the Dolphins added Jay Cutler out of the commentary booth to replace him.

    Fantasy Analysis: Miami Dolphins

    RB Jay Ajayi was one of the top RB during last season in NFL: Accuscore’s fantasy projections show that he would be top10 RB to collect fantasy points this season as well. TE Julius Thomas and WR Jarvis Landry are projected to be among the Top 25 in their respective position groups, but there won’t be too many other players from Miami that you want to draft during first rounds of your season long fantasy draft.

    Other 2017 NFL Previews:
    NFC North Division Preview
    NFC East Division Preview
    NFC South Division Preview
    NFC West Division Preview

    AFC West Division Preview
    AFC North Division Preview

    Bills decline continues

    Buffalo Bills’ trend has been pointing downwards during the last three season. Nine, eight and seven wins have been the result of the last three seasons. The Rex Ryan era that started with high promises and expectations was short and full of a lot of hot air. Now, the Bills are taking a new direction under the command of rookie head coach Sean McDermott.

    Accuscore has accurately predicted Buffalo’s win total during last two years (both under). Now we predict again, that they will land under Vegas line (6.5). It will be a tight call as season predictions show 6 wins for the Bills. However, 5 wins is more probable than 7 wins, so we are confident to make this bet. With 6 wins, the playoffs are more than a long shot with under 5% probability. One of the key games for the Bills is the opening day game when the Jets visit Buffalo. That game has right now the highest win probability for any Bills game during this season.

    Roster Moves:

    Declining teams usually make many roster moves during offseason, and the Bills are no exception. However, looking the simulations results, these moves are not having an immediate impact to this season’s results. There are not any big name additions like the past, but the Bills look likely to re-ignite some careers that are declining. Stephon Gilmore’s departure from might be the most difficult to fill on defense. Buffalo basically got rid of all its receivers and with a shaky QB situation, will heavily rely on the running game. Acquiring two veteran fullbacks enhances this plan.

    Fantasy Analysis: Buffalo Bills

    There is not too much to discuss about top fantasy players in the context of Buffalo Bills. Their QB Tyrod Taylor can make plays with his feet that bring quite a few fantasy points at the end of the season. If he can start the first game and perform as predicted, he could be top10 QB on the fantasy scale. Another top10 fantasy player in his respective position is RB LeSean McCoy. He is predicted to be ranked 4th for this season for fantasy points among all NFL running backs.

    Jets Won’t be Bouncing Back Yet

    The second season of head coach Todd Bowles wasn’t as rosy as the surprising first one. The record of 5-11 leaves a lot for improvement, but it looks like Jets are trying to reach better results via a complete rebuild. Usually, this takes more than a season to get any proper results, and the Jets and Browns are most analyst’s favorites to battle for the top pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

    Accuscore’s simulations show that the Jets are very likely to repeat the same 5-win season as year ago. This means that chances for playoffs are next to nothing. No need to even mention probability for winning the division with the Patriots laughing on the AFC East throne.

    Roster Moves:

    Part of the house cleaning was to get rid of both QBs - Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith - and top WR Brandon Marshall. Both Smith and Marshall found new jobs with the New York Giants. Jets starting QB Josh McCown cannot be called any long term solution as a 14th year veteran that never truly turned heads looks more like stopgap, if that. The franchise is clearly looking for a savior from the next year’s draft.

    Fantasy Analysis: New York Jets

    Predictably, the Jets are not featuring any fantasy stars. Actually none of their players are predicted to be among the top 20 in their respective position groups. In WRs, the Jets’ best receiver to collect fantasy points is closer to 50 in his projected rank. It is possible that there will be a single fantasy star, but right now, it is difficult to predict who that would or could be.

  • AFC North: 2017 NFL Previews

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    AccuScore continues to preview every team and division in the NFL ahead of the 2017 NFL season kickoff:

    AFC North: 2017 NFL Division Previews

    2017 AFC North Projections and Preview

    Membership Special: NFL Picks against the spread for the 2016 NFL season (including playoffs) finished 151-99-17, 60.4% +4,210 profit. Include Totals and AccuScore’s 2016 NFL picks were nearly +5,000. So, what are you waiting for? Use coupon code football30 and get 20% off a premium All-Sports membership - Join AccuScore Now!

    2016 NFL Betting Record

    Week 1 Picks are Live!...AccuScore's Week 1: NFL Picks

    Pittsburgh playoffs streak continues

    The Pittsburgh Steelers have reached the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, and they have improved year after year. Three years ago, they lost in wild card game, two years ago they lost in divisional game and year ago they lost in conference final to the eventual Super Bowl winners. So is this the year for Pittsburgh?

    Accuscore season simulations predict that Pittsburgh finish top of the AFC North again. The Steelers project to win 11 games and the probability to win division is 55%. Before the start of the season, the Steelers look like one of the safest bets to reach the postseason. Added to that, Pittsburgh starts the season in Cleveland, which should be a nice easy win to get the season going.

    Roster Moves:

    As Pittsburgh appears to be heading in the right direction the last few seasons, the front office hasn’t made too many earth shattering changes to the roster. Departures of Lawrence Timmons and Jarvis Jones from the linebackers corps are notable, but most probably will not have a massive impact on the performance of the defense. Backup running back DeAngelo Williams was also replaced by Knile Davis. Last season’s injury and declining performance led to the release of WR Markus Wheaton, but Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Sammie Coates should provide enough targets for Ben Roethlisberger.

    Fantasy Analysis: Pittsburgh Steelers

    The Steelers’ defense is one of the best in the league. Accuscore’s fantasy projections list them as a Top 4 team fantasy defense. Other good picks for your fantasy team from the Steelers are Le'Veon Bell, who is projected to finish Top 3 among running backs, Antonio Brown, a top 10 wide receiver, as well as Martavis Bryant, who is projected to be 26th among all WRs. Even though QB Ben Roethlisberger is not projected to gather top10 fantasy numbers at his position, he has still everything that it takes to lead Steelers to playoffs.

    Other 2017 NFL Previews:
    NFC North Division Preview
    NFC East Division Preview
    NFC South Division Preview
    NFC West Division Preview

    AFC West Division Preview
    AFC East Division Preview

    Ravens trying to end playoffs drought

    Since winning the Super Bowl in 2012 season, the Baltimore Ravens have reached the playoffs only once and won only one game during that run in 2014.

    The Ravens are predicted to have a 9-7 record and put them on the bubble with a handful of other wildcard teams. Baltimore has a 30% chance of winning the AFC North, but include the likelihood of making the postseason is up to 50% when including the Wild Card.

    Roster Moves:

    There have been quite a lot of departures from the Ravens’ squad this summer. Both lines took a hit when Lawrence Guy (DE) and Ricky Wagner (OT) left the team. Baltimore is rebuilding via the draft and spent 3 out of 4 top draft picks on the defensive line. Also, the retirement of WR Steve Smith will have impact on the team. Despite missing the playoffs, QB Joe Flacco had a career season in 2016 when he broke 4000 passing yards for the first time. Due to injury, though, Flacco’s status for the opening game is up in the air and it could be that he is not 100% during first few weeks of the season.

    Fantasy Analysis: Baltimore Ravens

    For fantasy players, the Ravens have no one to offer in the first round. Depending on the severity of the injury, Flacco’s projected to be a top15 fantasy QB. Also, WR Jeremy Maclin can be a good late rounds addition to your team, but if Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman take most of the snaps, he won’t be a difference maker. Once a league leading defense, the Ravens still rank Top 8 for fantasy.

    Cincinnati bounces back to a playoff contender

    Last season ended the Bengals’ five-year streak of a postseason play. Sadly, the Bengals did not collect a single postseason win during that five-year span. Still, only six wins during the 2016 regular season was a clear step backwards from past performances of this team.

    Accuscore predicts that the Bengals will bounce back to fight for the playoffs spot. Even though they do not project to be a threat to the Pittsburgh Steelers and should have a tough time topping the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati should start moving back in the right direction. Based on season simulations, the Bengals project to get 9 wins and around 20% probability to win AFC North. The chances of qualifying for the postseason are around 40%.

    Roster Moves:

    During the offseason, the biggest roster changes took place on the offensive line. Seasoned veterans like Kevin Zeitler and Andrew Whitworth left the team. Even if the injury bug doesn’t hit Cincinnati as it did year ago, the gaping hole in the offensive line could be difficult to fill. On the other side, the Bengals upgraded their defense with linebacker Kevin Minter from Arizona.

    Fantasy Analysis: Cincinnati Bengals

    Cincinnati is predicted to be an above average defense in AccuScore’s season long fantasy projections, but the Bengals shouldn’t be the first defense picked in the draft or close to it. A healthy AJ Green would be another notable fantasy player, but he is not predicted to be among Top 5 WRs for fantasy points in 2017. QB Andy Dalton has received a boatload of critique about his fluctuating performance, but he is still predicted to be above average starter in NFL and a serviceable second quarterback on a fantasy team.

    Cleveland struggle continues

    The Cleveland Browns won only one game in 2016 season. That wasn’t any big surprise as the last time they were not last in their division or won less than 5 games was over 10 years ago. Constant changes in head coaching and key player positions have not been the right recipe for success for Cleveland. So, will any of this change in the upcoming season?

    Accuscore’s simulations show minor improvement for the Browns, but two wins out of 16 won’t count for much in Ohio. They don’t have any reasonable chances to win division or reach playoffs as both probabilities are shown in fraction of percentage. Cleveland’s best chances to win games come against New York Jets in week 5 and a trip to Chicago in week 16.

    Roster Moves:

    The change has been constant on the Browns’ roster in recent years. Now, they are relying on rookie QB DeShone Kizer. This decision sliced around two wins from their win totals, as Kizer is going to be learning on the job. The Browns’ offensive line should be better than a year ago, as they signed JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler to improve it. Their top WR Terrelle Pryor left the building and it will be interesting to see how Kenny Britt fills his shoes. Both WRs broke 1000 yards mark in last season without a great QB tossing them the ball, so the change doesn’t appear to be a huge step back ro a stp backwards.

    Fantasy Analysis: Cleveland Browns

    Based on his track record, Kenny Britt would be good pick for your fantasy team’s receiving corp. He will be used in many situations and be a clear no. 1 receiver on the team. RB Isaiah Crowell could also be good later rounds pickup for your draft, too. He is predicted to be a Top 15 running back in the league and is expected to break 1000 yards rushing. The Defense is ranked dead last in the league’s fantasy projections, and the new rookie QB is in similar company.

  • Cavs vs Celtics: How Valuable is LeBron James?

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    How Valuable is LeBron James For The Cavs?

    It's almost the postseason, and AccuScore took some time to look at LeBron James and how valuable one player can be in a game that could decide the winner of the Eastern Conference. Wednesday's top of the Eastern Conference battles could decide home court advantage for the Conference Finals and preview that heavyweight battle if all goes to chalk.

    The Cavs are coming off a back-to-back, and AccuScore ran its simulations prior to the conclusion of Tuesday night’s win, where James ultimately recorded a triple double, so the numbers may not match identically with Wednesday’s simulation results on the site, but the computer’s assessment of LeBron James is clear.

    The Cavs’ go from a 32.4% chance of winning Wednesday's game in Boston without, arguably, the best basketball player on the planet to a 40.1% chance of winning in Beantown with James in the lineup, which is a whopping increase of 26.4%!

    Safe to say, the Cavs are not about to win the Eastern Conference in the regular or postseason without James on the court.

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    Whether or not James gets voted as a top candidate in the MVP race, the fact of the matter is that his impact on the Cavaliers -- in the long run – is immense. In the short run, it’s equally notable.

    The Cavs’ roster has enough talent to sustain wins in the regular season and beat bottom dwellers, but increasing the Cavs’ odds of winning from 32.4% to 40.1% is something no single other player provides against competition of this caliber.

    The Cavs haven't had a whole lot of success with James off the floor - going winless when no. 23 has rested.

    Heading into March, Cleveland is about nine-to-ten points better offensively, per 100 possessions, with James on the floor, and are about three points worse defensively per 100 possessions. He has an impact on both ends. Against Boston in simulations, Cleveland held the Celtics 1.2 points lower on average, which makes a big difference in a close game. Add in that the Cavs score about 2.5 more points with James in simulations, and the game gets a whole heck of a lot more interesting and entertaining with the three-time NBA Finals MVP on the floor.

    This isn't anything new, though. Two years ago, Cleveland went 3-10 without him on the floor. Last year, 1-5


    Given that James plays between 37-to-38 minutes per game when on the floor - is this really that surprising? While his usage ratings might not be to the levels of a James Harden or Russell Westbrook, his presence on the floor for that amount of time makes the overall impact just as much, if not more.

    With “the King” on the floor, the Cavs remain the favorite to reach the NBA finals; without him, their winning percentage suggests they could be a lottery team. Ultimately, the computer still likes the Celtics because they come in rested and have the home court, but James gives the Cavs a far better chance to win according to AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations.

    See AccuScore’s Celtics vs Cavs expert picks against the spread and totals + all of Wednesday’s action: NBA Picks

  • Cowboys vs. Cardinals: MNF Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Cowboys vs Cardinals: NFL MNF Picks

    Week 3 finishes up Monday night as the Arizona Cardinals host the Dallas Cowboys in a matchup featuring a pair of playoff hopefuls struggling to get out of the gates. Arizona's a 3-point home underdog with the total set at 46.5.

    Vegas Odds and AccuScore Simulation Data

    AccuScore's 10,000 simulations actually have the Cardinals as five-point 'dogs in this matchup, indicating even more confidence in the road favorites than do Vegas odds. The Cowboys cover a 3-point spread in over 53 percent of the sims, a shade above the odds listed in Vegas. The Cowboys covering a -3 spread are being offered in most books at -105, suggesting a 51 percent chance of happening.

    All of AccuScore's NFL Monday Night Football Picks


    Much of the hope heading into this season for Arizona rested largely on the perception that QB Carson Palmer would bounce back from last year's struggles. That hasn't been in the case through two weeks. He's averaging 300 yards per game, but is completing just 54.8 percent of his passes; he's tied for the third-most interceptions in the NFL, having thrown for twice as many INTs (4) than TDs (2).

    Palmer is projected to finish Monday night's matchup with 249 yards -- averaging 1.5 TDs and 0.5 INTs per sim.

    Cowboys QB Dak Prescott struggled against the Denver Broncos in Week 2, but it's safe to project he'll bounce back. Denver just might have the best defense in the league, and the Cardinals won't have that level of success in forcing turnovers. Prescott is projected to finish with 275 yards -- averaging 1.7 TDs and 0.5 INTs per sim.

    What to Watch For

    The Cardinals are No. 26 in the league in scoring defense, having given up 48 points in their first two games. Some of this blame does go to the offense, though, with its multiple turnovers that have forced the other side of the ball to play way too many minutes. They gave up 35 points to Matt Stafford and the Lions, and 13 points to an Andrew Luck-less Colts team.

    Dallas forced 0.9 turnovers per simulated matchup. Dallas is above average in total tackles, entering their Week 3 matchup ranked No. 12 in this category. They average just a shade below two QB sacks per sim.

    Betting Trends
    • The Cowboys are 6-3 straight up (SU) in their last nine games on the road.
    • The Cardinals are 3-9 against the spread (ATS) in their last 12 games.
    • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Cardinals' last nine games.
    • The Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games at home.

    Analyst's Pick: Cowboys vs Cardinals

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    Dallas covers in a close matchup on the road. We're expecting good production from the Cowboys' offense. Since Arizona has the weapons to answer, we'll also suggest the OVER.

  • Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles: NFL Sunday Night Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Cowboys vs Eagles: Sunday Night NFL Pick

    Sunday night features an intriguing matchup on the NFL slate as the 5-4 Dallas Cowboys host the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium. Philly will look to avenge their OT loss the last time they were on the road against Dallas.

    Vegas Odds
    There has been very little movement on the total since it oped at 47, but the spread shifted two-to-three points depending on where you're looking. The Eagles opened as 3-point favorites before settling down at -5.5.

    Betting Line: Philadelphia Eagles -5.5/-6
    Total: 47.5/48

    At the time of publication, about 66 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Philly.

    68 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    - The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys' last six games.
    - The Cowboys are 9-3 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games at home.
    - The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys' last six games at home.

    All of AccuScore's NFL Picks, including a free preview of the Lions vs the Bears... All of AccuScore's NFL Sunday Picks

    What to Watch For
    While the Eagles are heavy favorites in Vegas and in the public's eye, AccuScore sim data has the Cowboys actually winning over 50 percent of simulations. How could our data and Vegas differ so much in their projections?

    The Cowboys have the second-best rushing attack at home and the variables seem to be weighing that statistic heavily.

    Alfred Morris is projected to finish with 71 yards on 16 carries; Darren McFadden is projected to finish with 30 yards on 7 carries; Dak Prescott is projected to finish with close to 40 yards on 5 attempts. Prescott has the highest probability of all Cowboys to run it into the end zone.

    With the eye test, Philly looks unbeatable. On paper, though, things aren't as perfect. They only have a +6 turnover margin, with Carson Wentz holding a 23:5 TD:INT ratio.

    In AccuScore sims, turnovers play the biggest factor -- with Dallas actually winning 67 percent of sims in which they commit fewer turnovers.

    Analyst's Pick
    Members: Log in at the top right now to reveal AccuScore’s Analyst Pick

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  • Election 2016: Clinton To Edge Trump

    Written by AccuScore Staff

  • GUIDE: AccuScore's NFL and College Football Picks

    Understanding AccuScore’s New Football Simulations

    Been away for a while? AccuScore may looks a bit different. Take a deep breath. The simulations haven’t changed, but the look has. So, we’re going to walk you through how to find your football picks and also how to read the new simulations.

    There are two views: The Graph View and the Grid View.

    The Graph View

    Side Value and Moneyline

    As this was a pretty big change, it took us a moment to get everything into the graph view, but now we have it. Let’s take a look at an example from NCAA Football below.

    Football Graph View

    In the example above, there is a 4-star moneyline pick and 2-star side value pick. The Moneyline pick is clearly Arkansas, represented by the outside circle. Also, the 88.8% of simulations resulted in Arkansas winning, which written below the team’s symbol. This is the moneyline pick. AccuScore’s simulations are represented by the outside circle.

    Football Graph View-2

    The side value, however, is represented by the inside circle, and as you can see in the image above, the odds only give Louisiana Tech a 5.69% chance of winning versus AccuScore giving Louisiana Tech an 11% chance of winning, so there is side value on picking the underdog here.

    Over/Under and Point Spread Picks

    In the illustration below, you’ll find a green arrow and a red arrow. The green arrow is AccuScore’s Totals pick. In the example below, AccuScore is picking the Over in this game, which is a two-star pick. Below the stars, the “52” represents the line, so AccuScore is saying this game will go OVER 52. The 58.4% shows you what percentage of simulations went OVER 52. If you click on the “free picks” or “more info” box, you can play around with slider tools to adjust the lines if you’re getting a different line.

    Football Graph View-2

    The red arrow shows AccuScore’s pick against the spread. In this game, the pick is LA Tech +25, which is a two-star pick. Again, the 56% represents the percentage of simulations that saw LA Tech losing by 25 or fewer points or winning outright.

    Grid View

    To get to the grid view, take a look at the red arrow above and click on the three lines. The graph symbol allows you to switch back to the graph view. Due to the number of games in College Football, the grid view is now the default view. Also, you can type in team abbreviations in the search box (green arrow) and find any game you’re looking for faster. The graph view is the default view for most other sports, but switching to the grid view is the same process for every sport.

    Understanding the Grid View

    Football Grid View

    Let’s use the same example we’ve been using and the same game that’s listed in the above illustration of the grid view: LATech vs Arkansas

    Let’s go column by column to understand what everything means in the grid view. Acc Sim% simply lists AccuScore’s simulation calculations, which list Arkansas as an 88% favorite. Conversely, Louisiana Tech only won 11% of simulations. That’s easy enough.

    Odds% is AccuScore converting the public odds into a percentage. Before you freak out and think something is wrong, the percentage is over 100% because bookies add a bit of juice to their end. While we removed that juice in the past and converted odds to be out of 100%, leaving the juice in actually allows for a clearer look at true side value because it doesn’t arbitrarily push down Vegas’ odds as a percentage.

    In this case, Vegas oddsmakers are saying there is a 97.22% chance of Arkansas winning and only a 5.69% chance of LATech winning. Looking at it side-by-side with AccuScore’s Sim%, the side value is clearly on LATech.

    The next column is “PS” and “ACC PS.” The top number is the point spread set by bookmakers, which is Arkansas -25. Below it, AccuScore lists the point spread line we believe it should be: Arkansas -21. Since Vegas is overinflating Arkansas, the point spread pick is Louisiana Tech.

    Next, we have the “OU” and “Acc OU” column. Similar to the last column, the first number (52) is the Over/Under line set by Vegas oddsmakers. The number below it is the Over/Under line AccuScore calculated. Since AccuScore’s line is higher than the public odds, the pick is the OVER.

    The final three columns are ML, SV, and Total, and all of them simply list the star-rated picks. As the season continues, we will have more trends and 3 and 4-star picks. Using the arrows, members can sort games by star-ratings and instantly find all games offering 4-star totals picks.

    Note: AccuScore still offers the ability to change lines and change spreads by clicking on the team names in the grid view. Also, you can see written previews for every game, top trends and player projections.

  • Jaguars vs Texans: Analyst Pick - NFL Week 1

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Week 1 Analyst Pick: Jaguars vs Texans

    Despite the craziness of Hurricane Harvey, this Sunday's matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans is still scheduled to be played. The Texans head into their Week 1 matchup as 5.5-point favorites with the total set at 39.5.

    All ofAccuScore’s Week 1 NFL Expert Picks

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sim Data

    The Texans opened as 4.5-point favorites, moving to 5.5 on Friday. AccuScore simulations, however, have the line at just 3, indicating a pick on the Jags to cover.

    The Jaguars cover a 5.5-point spread in about 61 percent of simulations, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. Most books in Vegas are offering Jacksonville +5.5 at -110, indicating about a 52 percent chance of happening.

    The Jags are getting +210 on the money line, indicating about a 32 percent chance of happening. Jacksonville wins 46 percent of sims. AccuScore data would have listed their money line odds at about +115 to +120, offering a whole lot of value on the +210.

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    What to Watch For

    Blake Bortles is projected to start for the Jags and that's actually a fairly important variable in projecting a more competitive matchup than do Vegas odds. He struggled overall with turnovers last season, but had an above-average performance against Houston. In two matchups, he fnished with 357 total yards and 2 TDs and 2 INTs.

    Bortles is projected to to finish with 199 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and a passer rating of 95.2.

    Key Betting Trend

    The Jaguars are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five road games vs the Texans.

    Analyst's Pick

    The Jaguars are 1-9 straight up (SU) in their last 10 road games. They're also 5-5 ATS in those same games. We'll take the Jags to cover late.

  • MLS Friday: Orlando City vs Real Salt Lake

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    MLS Analyst Preview: Orlando City vs Real Salt Lake

    Friday night features some MLS action on ESPN as an out-of-form Orlando City SC heads west against a struggling Real Salt Lake (RSL) squad.

    Losers of four of their last five matches, RSL will look to get back on track in the West standings - currently in the No. 10 slot with 17 points. The recent struggles were all on the road, though, and the home crowd should help turn things around.


    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulation Data

    Vegas odds have RSL as slight home favorites to get the win, listed at -125 on the money line at the time of publication. That indicates about a 54.4 percent chance of winning.

    AccuScore data has that probability much lower, just under 43 percent. AccuScore sim data would have listed RSL at about +130 on the money line.

    Taking a look at the standings, there's some value in the UNDER and the draw in this matchup. With Orlando City having scored just two goals in their last five road matches, recent play indicates a pick on the UNDER.

    AccuScore sim data, however, doesn't provide much value on either side of the total.

    Make sure to check out the full simulation to get insight on side value picks and potential in a draw in this matchup.

    See All of AccuScore'sMLS Picks

    Analyst's Last Word

    Despite the difference in the money line winning probabilities between odds and sim data, a pick on the home side is attractive. RSL isn't having a great season, but they have been solid at home - winning three in a row there. They're a shade over EVEN odds and it's fairly attractive.

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  • NFL Thursday: Bears at Packers Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    All of AccuScore’s NFL Week 4 Picks

    Thursday Night Football: Chicago at Green Bay

    Week 4 of the NFL slate kicks off Thursday night as the Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears in an NFC North showdown. Green Bay's laying more than a TD in some books, with some potential for an upset given the short week. At the time of publication, the Westgate Superbook has the Packers as 7-point favorites with the total setting at 45 after opening at 45.5.

    Betting on the Total

    Whereas Vegas has the total for this matchup set at 45, our simulation data actually has it a noticeable 3.5 points lower at 41 -- indicating a pick on the UNDER. The total combined score stays below 45 in 59.2 percent of simulations, and stays below 45.5 in in over 61 percent of simulations.

    Why bet on the UNDER? The short week isn’t helping the Bears out one bit, but the Packers do enter the matchup with plenty of injury problems.

    Betting Trends
    • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bears' last six games on the road.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Bears' last 19 games when playing the Packers.
    • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bears' last five games when playing on the road against the Packers.
    • The Bears are 2-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games on the road.
    • The Bears are 2-4 ATS in their last six games when playing on the road against the Packers.
    • The Bears are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games when playing the Packers.

    What to Watch For

    The Chicago Bears have been fairly impressive this season -- given their shortage of talent on either side of the ball beyond a handful of positions. They did average 5.8 yards per carry last week behind RBs Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard. The Packers rank 25th in run defense, allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

    Howard is projected to finish with 86 yards on 18 carries; Cohen with 15 yards on three carries.

    There's no doubt Chicago QB Mike Glennon has no weapons to throw it to, but the turnovers have just got to stop. Also, throwing just one completion on four targets compared to12 checkdowns to running backs on 22 passes is not starting NFL material.

    He averages almost as many INTs per sim as TDs [0.8 to 0.9].

    Analyst's Pick

    Our analyst is coming off a double-winner on Monday night where he got his spread and pick total on point. What's he going with for Thursday night?

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  • NFL Week 3: Dolphins vs Jets Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Sunday - Jets @ Dolphins - 4* Hot Trend Alert

    The New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins Sunday as 6-point road underdogs, with the total listed at 43. The Jets are in a crucial part of their schedule -- actually having a chance against teams like the Dolphins, Jaguars and Browns in the coming weeks. Let's see what the simulation data says about stopping the likes of Jay Ajayi and Jarvis Landry.

    Jets vs Dolphins - NFL Week 3 Pick

    Vegas Odds and AccuScore Sim Data

    AccuScore sim data and Vegas odds are on the same page on this matchup - projecting a convincing Dolphins victory. Miami is listed at -270 on the money line in Vegas, indicating a 72-to-72 percent chance of winning. They win 71 percent of the simulated matchups.

    There hasn't been a whole lot of movement on the line since it opened at -6.5 for Miami. The Dolphins cover the currently-listed 6-point spread about 53 percent of the time -- on par with the odds listed in Vegas. The Dolphins covering is a 4-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

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    Betting on the Total

    It's tough to imagine this Jets roster to put up any more than 14-to-17 points on the scoreboard. They average 16 in the sims, with the total staying below 43 in close to 62 percent of simulations.

    • The UNDER is 5-0 in the Jets' last five games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. They gave up 45 to Oakland in Week 2.
    • The UNDER is 5-0 in the Jets' last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

    What to Watch For

    The Jets quite possibly might have the worst defense in the league and Dolphins head coach Adam Gase knows how to take advantage of that. Especially with weapons like Landry and Ajayi. Ajayi finished last week with 122 yards on 4.4 yards per carry.

    Ajayi is projected to finished this game with 116 yards on 20 carries. He averages 0.9 TDs per sim, the highest average on both teams.

    FREE Week 3 Analyst's Pick

    MIA -6 and the UNDER. Lay the points and take the Dolphins; buying a half point to 5.5 wouldn't be a bad option here either.

    Review: AccuScore's Hot Trends: Week 3

  • NFL: Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons - Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons: Analyst Pick

    The Dallas Cowboys -- coming off a big win over Kansas City -- head to Atlanta to match up with the Falcons. Running back Ezekiel Elliot has been the focal point of most NFL discussions this week after the court upheld his initial suspension.

    No 'Zeke, no problem -- at least according to our simulations.

    Vegas Odds

    The total has seen plenty of movement over the past few days. Atlanta opened up as 3-point favorites before settling at -3.5. The total, however, dropped to 48-to-48.5 after opening at 53.

    Betting Line: Atlanta Falcon -3.5
    Total: 48.5

    At the time of publication, about 60 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Cowboys. 65 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    -The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
    -Dallas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road.
    -The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 21 games on the road.

    What to Watch For
    With Elliot out, it'll be a trio of Alfred Morris, Darren McFadden, and Rod Smith who'll be expected to try and come close to the production they have otherwise.

    McFadden leads the way in sims for Dallas, averaging the most TDs per sim (0.5) amongst the backs. He's projected to put up 71 yards on 14 carries.

    The Cowboys' defense hasn't been all that subpar this year, giving up 22.2 points per game which is good for No. 15 in the league. This game largely depends on how often they can force Matt Ryan and the Falcons' offense to settle for FGs.

    The Dallas defense averages about 1 forced turnover per sim, with a slightly her probability of a forced fumble as opposed to a pick.

    Matt Ryan is projected to finish with 280 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages just 0.3 INTs per sim, compared to 2.0 TDs per sim.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • Royals vs Orioles: Expert Analysis, Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles

    The Kansas City Royals head to Oriole Park Monday for a matchup with Ubaldo Jimenez and the Baltimore Orioles, with the home side opening as slight underdogs on the money line (+113). Kansas City, with Danny Duffy set to start, opened at -123 on the money line, with the total set at 10.

    All of Tonight's MLB Picks: Click Here for All of Monday's Baseball Picks

    Pitching Matchup

    Duffy (7-6) enters Monday's matchup with an ERA of 3.56 and a WHIP of 1.27. He gives up about 8.9 hits per nine innings, on pace with the rest of his team as the Royals as a whole allow 8.8 hits per nine innings. As a team, Kansas City is No. 11 in the majors with an ERA of 4.15. They have been extraordinary in terms of home runs (HR) given up, ranking No. 28 in the MLB with 108 allowed HRs.

    Jimenez (4-7), with his ERA of 6.93 and a 1.56 WHIP, gives up about 9.9 hits per nine innings pitched, a stark difference when comparing to Duffy's numbers. He is on pace with his team, though, as Baltimore gives up the same 9.9 hits per nine innings as a team. They're No. 29 in the majors in team ERA (5.15), and have given up 154 HRs this season -- third most in the majors.

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulation Data - Value on the Home 'Dog

    We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore sim data are on opposite sides of the money line. Whereas Vegas odds have Baltimore as slight home underdogs, the sim data has them as favorites -- indicating a pick on the Orioles.

    The Orioles win about 51 percent of simulations, making the +105 odds at the time of publication fairly attractive.

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    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sims

  • USC vs UCLA: Odds, Preview, Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    USC vs UCLA: Rivalry Week Analyst Pick

    It's rivalry week and we've got a fun Pac-12 matchup in LA featuring two of the best QBs in the nation as USC hosts UCLA at the LA Memorial Coliseum. The Trojans dominated last year's matchup 36-14 as they dominated the time of possession (43:47).

    USC vs UCLA 2017

    Vegas Odds
    There has been very little movement on the spread or total since they opened earlier this week. The Trojans opened at 15-point favorites before settling in a half-point higher.

    Betting Line: USC -15.5
    Total: 71.5

    At the time of publication, about 61 percent of the public was laying the points at home and taking USC. 73 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

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    Betting Trends

    • The total has gone OVER in seven of UCLA's last 10 games.
    • The total has gone OVER in four of USC's last five games.
    • USC is 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games at home.

    What to Watch For
    Since putting up just 14 points against Notre Dame, the USC offense has gotten back on track averaging 45 points and 590 yards of offense over their last three matchups. The Trojans' offense goes as QB Sam Darnold does and he'll look to make a statement against a rival who features a QB that just might be picked ahead of himself in next year's NFL Draft.

    Darnold is projected to finish with 320 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT.

    UCLA heads into this matchup coming off a 44-37 win over Arizona State. Although their defense giving up 37 points is somewhat concerning, the offense was firing on all cylinders with QB Josh Rosen. He has been great at home this year, but on-and-off on the road. This is in LA, but still a road game. He enters this matchup with 8 TDs and 7 INTs on the road this year (four games).

    Rosen is projected to finish with 308 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

    Analyst's Pick

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  • Wizards at Celtics: Game 5 Preview

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Washington Wizards vs Boston Celtics: Game 5

    With the best-of-seven series now tied at two games apiece, the Celtics and Wizards head back to Boston for a crucial Game 5. Home court advantage has been a major factor in this series, with role players struggling on the road only to get back on track at home – Bradley Beal being a great example following his 29-point performance in Game 4.

    At the time of publication, the Celtics are a 4-point favorite with the total set at 215.5. There’s only been about a half-point of movement since the lines opened at 4.5 points and 216, respectively.

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    AccuScore Simulations

    There’s a four-star AccuScore hot trend on this game’s spread, suggesting a slightly closer game than Vegas lines indicate. The Wizards – coached by Scott Brooks – have proven multiple times this season they’re capable of making defensive adjustments.

    Similar to Tuesday’s Rockets-Spurs matchup, simulation data seems to be going against recent betting trends. While the hot trend from simulations indicates an against the spread (ATS) pick on the Wizards, betting trend suggest otherwise.

    • Boston is 5-0 straight up (SU) and ATS in their last five games following back-to-back losses.
    • Washington is 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road.

    Sim data also indicates a different pick on the total, compared to recent trends. AccuScore simulations have the total set 2.5 points lower than that in Vegas, suggesting the UNDER. The total, though, has gone OVER in five of Boston’s last six playoff home games as a favorite.

    Wizards vs Celtics - Game 5
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    What to Watch For

    The Wizards have been incredibly successful on the defensive end with Markieff Morris on the floor, outscoring the Celtics by a shade of 28 points per 100 possessions. According to Basketball Insiders, Morris has only played 92 minutes in the series, compared to 138 minutes for Marcin Gortat and 150+ for other starters. His ankle injury earlier in the series has affected his overall time on the floor, but keep an eye on his presence on the floor because it has had direct positive impact on Washington’s defense.

    After scoring just 14 points in Game 2 and 11 points in Game 3, Bradley Beal broke out in Game 4 with 29 points. He shot 69 percent from the field in Game 4, after shooting just 37 percent in Games 1-3. It's unfair to expect another 60-plus percent shooting performance from Beal, but his aggressiveness on defense clearly had a positive impact on his offensive production. By having to guard Thomas, Avery Bradley, and Marcus Smart, Beal got himself more engaged in the action early on. Watch for him to be aggressive Wednesday night, especially in the first half as he looks to build from his Game 4 success.

    Why’s the Boston money line potentially the safest pick? Washington somehow kept Isaiah Thomas off the free throw line. That’s not going to happen in back-to-back games, especially with Game 5 in Boston.

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