Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NFL Monday - Vikings at Bears: Analyst Preview
Week 5 in the NFL comes to a wrap with the Chicago Bears hosting the Minnesota Vikings as 2.5-point home underdogs and the total set at 39.5.
There hasn't been a whole lot of movement on the line or the total since they opened -- both dropping about a half point. Considering the lack of offensive talent in this matchup, expect the total to keep dropping through the weekend.
Against the spread, Over/Under and Moneyline picks + Player projections: NFL MNF Picks
The status of Vikings QB Sam Bradford is still up in the air -- listed as questionable at the start of the weekend. Bradford did say he was "feeling better" Friday, but the Vikings' coaching staff has yet to make an official decision on Bradford vs Case Keenum for Monday.
Betting on the Total
• The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings' last 12 games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the Vikings' last five games when playing on the road against the Bears.
What to Watch For
Rookie Mitchell Trubisky will make his first start for the Bears Monday night. The main issue for him will be a complete lack of weapons downfield -- losing multiple WRs to injuries already. Trubiski had a 30-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio at UNC last year, and he'll rely on the Bears' ground attack to help him transition properly. Chicago's ground attack is averaging 4.6 yards per carry this season, behind the likes of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.
Trubisky is projected to finish with 132 passing yards. He averages almost as many INTs (0.5) as TDs (0.6) per simulated matchup.
Howard is projected to lead the Bears in rushing yards, but Cohen has a slightly higher probability of finding the end zone.
Keenum is in the sims for the Vikings, and the QB's matchup against Bears CB Kyle Fuller will determine much of the game. In three games this season, Keenum actually rankings No. 9 in the league in terms of passer rating. Fuller is the fifth-most targeted CB this season. He hasn't given up a TD yet, though.
Keenum averages 178 passing yards, and has the same probability of an INT as a TD.
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