Ohio State vs Michigan: Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Ohio State vs Michigan: Analyst Pick & Preview

As was expected, this Saturday's Ohio State-Michigan matchup got plenty of action this week with the majority of discussion focusing on what chances the Buckeyes have at a playoff berth. The Wolverines, on the other hand, have no shot at the championship, but will relish any opportunity to spoil a rival's season.

Vegas Odds
The game actually opened as a pick 'em before the Vikings settled in as 3-point favorites. The total hasn't seen much movement since opening at 45.5.

Betting Line: Ohio State -12
Total: 50

AccuScore has picks for every major Division 1-A game: Saturday's College Football Picks

At the time of publication, about 78 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Ohio State.

61 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

Betting Trends
-The total has gone OVER in seven of Ohio State's last eight games.
-The total has gone OVER in four of Ohio State's last five games on the road.
-The total has gone OVER in six of Ohio State's last eight games on the road vs Michigan.

What to Watch For
Michigan has had QB issues all season. Brandon Peters is projected to be the starter heading into this Saturday's matchup, currently leading the team in completion percentage (57.8). He has 4 TDs to zero INTs on the season, and will more than likely look for the run game to carry much of the load. The Wolverines have averaged about 4.6 yards per carry.

Peters is projected to finish with 183 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He averages about the same number of TDs per sim (1.0) as he does INTs (0.9).

The three main Michigan backs average about 5.03 yards per carry in sims.

Ohio State is clearly the better team -- averaging 546 total yards and 45 points per game heading into this matchup. JT Barrett led the way last week over Illinois, finishing with 141 passing yards and 2 TDs in the 52-14 win at home. Barrett owns a 32-to-7 TD:INT ratio, completing about 66.9 percent of his passes. He’s also the team’s second-leading rusher with 605 yards on 115 carries.

Barrett is projected to finish with 183 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. He's projected to also add 48 rushing yards on 10 carries, averaging 0.5 rushing TDs per sim (compared to his 1.7 passing TDs per sim).

Analyst's Pick

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Analyst Pick: The OVER.

The OVER is 6-2 in Michigan's last eight games as an underdog. Also, the OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two sides in Michigan.