• Iowa vs Michigan State Predictions: Analyst Preview

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NCAA Football Saturday - Iowa vs Mich. St.

    All Picks, All Games: All AccuScore Week 5 College Football Picks

    Michigan State's listed as a fairly heavy favorite this weekend as they get set to host Iowa. Vegas has them favored by 3.5 points and listed at -180 on the money line. Our simulation data, though, has a different take on this matchup.

    Vegas Odds & AccuScore Sim Data

    The -180 money line odds for the Spartans indicate a 64.2 percent chance of winning. They're fairly heavy home favorites. The sim data has Iowa as slight favorites, winning just a shade over 50 percent of the sims. The simulations would have listed the Spartans at about EVEN, suggesting bettors to stay away from the home side.

    Iowa, on the other hand, has a lot of value from the sims. They're getting +150 on the money line in most books, indicating a 40 percent chance of winning. They win over 50 percent of sims, though, providing a whole lot of value on that +150.

    Not a member? Join now using code NCAA17 for 22% off an All Access, All Sports Membership (annual or monthly)...Join Today!*

    Betting Trends
    • Iowa is 6-2 straight up (SU) in its last 8 games.
    • Iowa is 17-6-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 24 games on the road.
    • Iowa is 5-1 SU in its last six games on the road.
    • Iowa is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games vs Michigan State.
    • Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on the road vs Michigan State.

    What to Watch For

    The Spartans can really spread the ball around, but also haven't faced a defense like that of Iowa's -- especially in terms of stopping the ground attack. As a result, Michigan St. QB Brian Lewerke will have to firing on all cylinders to avoid the upset.

    Lewerke is projected to finish with 241 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, along with 39 rushing yards.

    Hawkeyes running back Akrum Wadley should have a big game this weekend, with the way Michigan State struggled to contain the ground attack against Notre Dame. The Spartans' LBs just don't have the talent to match up with Wadley's speed. Watch for him to get plenty of opportunities early.

    Wadley is projected to finish with 56 yards on 9 carries, along with 20 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Altogether in sims, he averages 0.8 TDs per matchup.

  • Louisville at North Carolina: Preview

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Louisville at North Carolina: College Hoops

    Wednesday features a marquee ACC matchup with No. 8 North Carolina hosting No. 7 Louisville in Chapel Hill. UNC enters the matchup ranked No. 1 in the ACC, but recent struggles in February on the defensive end opens the door for a Louisvile squad riding a three-game winning streak.

    UNC opened as a 4.5-point favorite at home.

    What to Watch For

    Offense vs Defense: This matchup features a Carolina team putting up nearly 87 points per game and a Louisville defense limiting its opponents to just 64 points. One has to give Wednesday night and given the track record the Heels have at home, it's tough to pick the underdog.

    This season Louisville is 4-5 against AP Top 25 teams, with wins against Purdue, UK, Indiana, Duke, and losses to Baylor, Virginia twice, Notre Dame and FSU.

    Dang, Deng: Louisville's sophomore standout Deng Adel has to be a big night for them to stay competitive on the road at UNC. He's been a bit inconsistent this season, but has found rhythm in 2017, scoring in double-digits in eight of his last 10 games.

    He has struggled noticeably this season against ranked opponents and as a result, continues to be the team's x-factor in big matchups like this one. On a good night, he gives Louisville a deep threat they don't otherwise have, shooting close to 35 percent from beyond the arc.

    Other than Deng, keep an eye out for Junior guard Quentin Snider to make an immediate impact. He's averaging 12.1 ppg and 4.1 apg, but has been on a tear since returning from his hip injury.

    Theo Pinson, Matchup Nightmare: UNC's Theo Pinsen is going to be a tough cover for Louisville -- or any opponent for that matter. He was put in the starting lineup two games ago, averaging 10.5 points, 1.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 25.5 minutes per game.

    He missed the first 16 games of the season with a broken foot, but that's all old news with his play of late. Able to play the guard and forward spots, Pinson gives UNC a certain level of versatility other schools just don't have. He's too big for a traditional guard to defend him, and he's too quick for a forward to contain him.

    AccuScore has predictions for every major NCAA Division I college basketball game against the spread and on the over/under, along with player projections and hot trends analysis. Starting this week off, the computer was picking 55% winners against the spread for the season for a profit of $13,650… Try a Free 7-day trial - Become a member today!

    Final Word

    UNC has the edge at home, no doubt, but Louisville has plenty of size and athleticism to make this a close one. They'll compete on the boards, a facet of the game UNC usually dominates their opponents in. Louisville is top-5 in the nation in offensive rebounds; UNC is No. 2 in offensive rebounding, No. 13 in defensive .

    Expect a close one -- especially in the first half -- but road games in the ACC are tough, no matter who you are. UNC margin of victory at home in ACC play this season? +25.2 pts/game.

    Free Pick of the Day:

    AccuScore has one free game of the day with a free match forecast, including AccuScore’s picks against the spread, on Totals & on the moneyline, with side value analysis visible:
    Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Free Forecast

  • Ohio State vs Michigan: Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Ohio State vs Michigan: Analyst Pick & Preview

    As was expected, this Saturday's Ohio State-Michigan matchup got plenty of action this week with the majority of discussion focusing on what chances the Buckeyes have at a playoff berth. The Wolverines, on the other hand, have no shot at the championship, but will relish any opportunity to spoil a rival's season.

    Vegas Odds
    The game actually opened as a pick 'em before the Vikings settled in as 3-point favorites. The total hasn't seen much movement since opening at 45.5.

    Betting Line: Ohio State -12
    Total: 50

    AccuScore has picks for every major Division 1-A game:Saturday's College Football Picks

    At the time of publication, about 78 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Ohio State.

    61 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    -The total has gone OVER in seven of Ohio State's last eight games.
    -The total has gone OVER in four of Ohio State's last five games on the road.
    -The total has gone OVER in six of Ohio State's last eight games on the road vs Michigan.

    What to Watch For
    Michigan has had QB issues all season. Brandon Peters is projected to be the starter heading into this Saturday's matchup, currently leading the team in completion percentage (57.8). He has 4 TDs to zero INTs on the season, and will more than likely look for the run game to carry much of the load. The Wolverines have averaged about 4.6 yards per carry.

    Peters is projected to finish with 183 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He averages about the same number of TDs per sim (1.0) as he does INTs (0.9).

    The three main Michigan backs average about 5.03 yards per carry in sims.

    Ohio State is clearly the better team -- averaging 546 total yards and 45 points per game heading into this matchup. JT Barrett led the way last week over Illinois, finishing with 141 passing yards and 2 TDs in the 52-14 win at home. Barrett owns a 32-to-7 TD:INT ratio, completing about 66.9 percent of his passes. He’s also the team’s second-leading rusher with 605 yards on 115 carries.

    Barrett is projected to finish with 183 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. He's projected to also add 48 rushing yards on 10 carries, averaging 0.5 rushing TDs per sim (compared to his 1.7 passing TDs per sim).

    Analyst's Pick

    Members: Log in at the top right of the screen to see today's Analyst Pick
    Not a Member? Use code football30 for 20% off an ALL-ACCESS ALL-SPORTS Premium membership: Join Now!

    Analyst Pick: The OVER.

    The OVER is 6-2 in Michigan's last eight games as an underdog. Also, the OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two sides in Michigan.

Joomla SEF URLs by Artio