Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Rockets vs Spurs: Game 5
The Rockets-Spurs best-of-seven series heads back to San Antonio for Game 5 with the home team favored by 5.5 points and the total set at 214. With Rockets' backup center Nene done for the playoffs with a groin injury, watch for Houston to keep going with smaller lineups to push the tempo.
Vegas vs AccuScore
We're always interested when our simulation data differs heavily from the numbers set in Vegas. Simulation data seems to agree with the spread, but it does have a total that's about six points lower than that in Vegas. The Spurs are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games at home, and it’s fair to say that they’re expected to continue that trend Tuesday night.
The total combined score stays below 214 in nearly 59 percent of simulations, with the data suggesting the line should be much lower at approximately 208. The UNDER is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
Recent trends, however, go against our simulation data.
• The total has gone OVER in five of Houston’s last seven games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER in seven of San Antonio’s last eight games.
Sim data or recent trends? Choose your fate.
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What to Watch For
Keep an eye on the production from Patty Mills and Dejounte Murray. With Tony Parker out for the remainder of the playoffs, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of home-road splits the role players for the Spurs have. Mills, surprisingly, is only 8-of-21 in the last two games since Parker went out, but expect him to have a better game Tuesday come back to San Antonio. Mills and Murray are projected to finish with approximately 15 points combined in Game 5. Mills is projected to shoot 2-of-5 from beyond the arc.
Houston dominated Game 4 with 19 made three-point baskets. A 68-point second half reminded everyone just how dominant that offense can be. AccuScore’s sim data would tell anyone looking at prop bets for Houston’s total made three-pointers to take the UNDER. The Rockets make just 13-of-37 three-pointers in Game 5 simulations.
After averaging below 17 points per game in the first two games of this series, James Harden has put up 35.5 over the last two. He’s projected to finish with 31 points on 9-of-21 shooting.