• 2017 NFL Futures - Over/Under Odds - NFC

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    2017 NFL Futures: NFC Win Totals + Picks

    With the 2017 NFL season nearly here, AccuScore projected out win-loss totals for every team. After revealing the AFC Win Totals and picks on Monday, we're back with NFL futures and expert picks. As a reminder, AccuScore's futures picks went 3-0 a seasons ago, so it's wise to pay attention.

    2017 NFL Futures Win Totals - NFC

    NFC East

    The Dallas Cowboys are projected to edge out the New York Giants and win the NFC East behind Dak Prescott and a strong offensive line. Even with Ezekiel Elliott suspended for six games, the Cowboys still project to win between 10 and 11 games, though the Giants are close behind at 10-6. The computer has Washington staying put and replicating its 2016 record of 8-7-1, though a draw is obviously not likely. The Philadelphia Eagles are expected to finish 6-10 in a tough division that seemingly always provides a surprise or two.

    NFC North

    The Green Bay Packers are the most likely team to win their division and to make the playoffs in the NFC, as the Cheese heads project to go 12-4 and easily beat out the rival Minnesota Vikings, who are projected to win between eight and nine games. The Lions and Bears are in for losing seasons in 2017, with the latter provided almost no chance of making the playoffs.

    NFC South

    The only division where no team is projected to finish with a losing record is the up and coming NFC South. The Super Bowl runner up Atlanta Falcons are projected to finish as runners-up behind Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints and Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers all shockingly projected to win 8.2 games and lose 7.8 games, meaning this division is neck and neck. The Las Vegas Over/Under line reinforces that the computer isn't alone in thinking this division is as close as it gets. According to Vegas, no team is projected for 10 wins and no teams is projected to win fewer than eight games. AccuScore agrees with that.

    NFC West

    While the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers continue to be rebuilding projects, the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks are playoff threats. The Seahawks get a notable edge from AccuScore, as Russell Wilson and company project to finish with the second most wins in the NFC and the second highest odds to make the playoffs. Las Vegas actually set a higher win total line on the Seahawks than the Packers, so Vegas is pointing to the Seahawks to be the NFC favorites outright.

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    2017 NFC Futures Expert Picks

    AccuScore has been traditionally strong in picking win totals. Last year, of course, we went 3-0. The focus is on value picks against the Las Vegas line.

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  • 2018 NFL Playoffs: Eagles vs Falcons Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
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    2018 NFL Playoffs: Eagles vs Falcons - Divisional Round Analyst Pick

    Back-to-back weekends with NFL action on a Saturday? We'll take it. We came through last Saturday letting you know Atlanta covering on the road in L.A. against the Rams was a lock. What's next for Atlanta?

    Let's take a closer look at this weekend's Falcons' matchup -- again on the road, this time against the Philadelphia Eagles.

    Our NFL Expert made two picks for Wildcard Weekend and got both right: Panthers +7 and Falcons +6.5...scroll to the bottom for his Analyst Pick for the Divisional Round...

    Vegas Odds

    With no Carson Wentz at QB for the Philadelphia Eagles, the Atlanta Falcons opened as 3-point favorites. The spread hasn't moved from there. The total opened at 44 before dropping quite a bit following some public action.

    Betting Line: Atlanta Falcons -3
    Total: 41.5

    At the time of publication, 55 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Falcons.

    54 percent of the action on the total has been on the UNDER.

    AccuScore Betting Trends: Wild Card Weekend
    • Against the Spread: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +790 profit)
    • Over/Under Picks: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +1800 profit)
    ...All of AccuScore's NFL 2018 Playoffs Picks: NFL Playoffs Picks (includes free full forecasts for Eagles vs Falcons)

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    Betting Trends
    • Atlanta is 2-5 against the spread [ATS] in its last seven games in the divisional round.
    • Philadelphia is 5-1 straight up [SU] in its last six games in the divisional round.
    • Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games at home.
    • Atlanta is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
    • Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
    • The OVER is 4-0 in Atlanta's last four divisional playoffs games.
    • The OVER is 4-0 in Philadelphia's last four games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.

    What to Watch For

    Force 'Em to Throw It: The Falcons' defense was solid last weekend against a potent Rams' offense. The Rams' offense thrives when it's able to mix-and-match with its pass-and-run game, but the Falcons forced them to beat them through the air. Rams QB Jared Goff threw the ball 45 times, becoming predictable and allowing the athletic Falcons linebackers to make an impact on the game. If Nick Foles throws the ball 45 times for Philly, an Atlanta win is guaranteed.

    Foles is projected to finish with 226 passing yards on 23 completions and 1 TD.

    Falcons' Offense: Atlanta QB Matt Ryan was efficient last week against the Rams, finishing with 200-plus yards completing 21-of-30 throws. The Falcons also ran the ball for over 100 yards. Above all, though, WR Julio Jones looked like himself after struggling with injuries in the final weeks of the regular season, catching nine passes for 94 yards against the Rams.

    Ryan is projected to finish with 262 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages more than three times as many TDs as INTs. Jones is projected to finish with 91 yards on 8 receptions; he averages 0.5 TDs per sim, meaning he finds the end-zone in every other simulated matchup.

    Analyst's Pick
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    More>> NFL Playoffs Analyst Pick: Viking vs Saints

  • Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles: NFL Sunday Night Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Cowboys vs Eagles: Sunday Night NFL Pick

    Sunday night features an intriguing matchup on the NFL slate as the 5-4 Dallas Cowboys host the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium. Philly will look to avenge their OT loss the last time they were on the road against Dallas.

    Vegas Odds
    There has been very little movement on the total since it oped at 47, but the spread shifted two-to-three points depending on where you're looking. The Eagles opened as 3-point favorites before settling down at -5.5.

    Betting Line: Philadelphia Eagles -5.5/-6
    Total: 47.5/48

    At the time of publication, about 66 percent of the public were laying the points on the road and taking Philly.

    68 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    - The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys' last six games.
    - The Cowboys are 9-3 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games at home.
    - The total has gone OVER in four of the Cowboys' last six games at home.

    All of AccuScore's NFL Picks, including a free preview of the Lions vs the Bears... All of AccuScore's NFL Sunday Picks

    What to Watch For
    While the Eagles are heavy favorites in Vegas and in the public's eye, AccuScore sim data has the Cowboys actually winning over 50 percent of simulations. How could our data and Vegas differ so much in their projections?

    The Cowboys have the second-best rushing attack at home and the variables seem to be weighing that statistic heavily.

    Alfred Morris is projected to finish with 71 yards on 16 carries; Darren McFadden is projected to finish with 30 yards on 7 carries; Dak Prescott is projected to finish with close to 40 yards on 5 attempts. Prescott has the highest probability of all Cowboys to run it into the end zone.

    With the eye test, Philly looks unbeatable. On paper, though, things aren't as perfect. They only have a +6 turnover margin, with Carson Wentz holding a 23:5 TD:INT ratio.

    In AccuScore sims, turnovers play the biggest factor -- with Dallas actually winning 67 percent of sims in which they commit fewer turnovers.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • NFC East: 2017 NFL Previews

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    NFC East: 2017 NFL Division Previews

    AccuScore is previewing ever NFL division ahead of the 2017 regular season, with every team in each division getting a detailed preview and projections, along with fantasy tips. For the NFC East division preview, AccuScore previews the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles below:

    2017 NFC North Projections and Preview

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    Other Previews:
    NFC North Division Preview
    NFC South Division Preview

    Dallas Hoping Sophomores Don’t Slump

    Projected Wins: 10.4
    Division Rank: 1

    The Dallas Cowboys surprised many experts during last season, as Jerry Jones’ men rode two rookies and a strong offensive line to the best record in the NFC: Thirteen wins. But the playoff run ended quickly in divisional game against the streaking Green Bay Packers.

    For the 2017 season, Accuscore simulated every game of the upcoming season 10,000 times to project win/loss records, and Dallas projects to repeat as NFC East champions, even with Ezekiel Elliott suspended for six games. This time, simulations show 10 wins for Dallas, but that’s still good enough to finish top of the division pile, though the Packers and Seahawks project to finish with a better record in the conference. Based on these numbers, Cowboys would reach playoffs this time with 76% probability.

    During the last season Dallas’ defense wasn’t anything close to great. In 13 wins they managed to keep only Cleveland at or below 10 points. More than likely, the offense will need to replicate numbers from a year ago, when the Cowboys scored at least 24 points in all but one win.

    Roster Moves

    The biggest changes in Dallas are in secondary. Brandon Carr, Barry Church and Morris Claiborne took off, and Nolan Carroll from Philadelphia signed to replace at least part of the hole left behind. Otherwise, Dallas continues more or less with the offensively dependent team that produced 13 wins. However, there are two big questions hovering around Dallas. Will Dak Prescott keep improving and step up as franchise quarterback after Tony Romo retired? How will Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension affect the team? If these key players can perform, Dallas should hit double digit win and earn the right to play in the postseason yet again.

    Fantasy Analysis: Dallas Cowboys

    Usual suspects are on the list when we think best bets for your fantasy team. Elliott would be second of the running back list if he got the full six games, but he will likely be a monster after coming back from suspension. QB Dak Prescott is among top 8 quarterbacks based on Accuscore’s fantasy predictions. Also TE Jason Witten is among top 10 tight-ends and WR Dez Bryant is knocking on the door of top 10 wide receivers. With Elliott out, Prescott could be even more pass happy than usual.

    New York Giants’ window of opportunity

    Projected Wins: 9.9
    Division Rank: 2

    New York Giants head coach Ben McAdoo did better than expected during his rookie season. They went clearly over Vegas line of 8 wins when the team managed to win 11 games before losing to the same streaking Green Bay in the wild card round of the playoffs. And considering the Giants are projected for 10 wins and a 67.5% chance at the playoffs, the expectations have been raised from a season ago when Vegas had the Giants’ win-total line at 8.0.

    The Giants’ chances to win NFC East division are around 38%, but the projected difference between the Giants and the Cowboys is only half a game. Eli Manning project to take this division race down to the wire.

    Roster Moves

    Offseason moves were quite limited in New York. The high profile free agent signing was receiver Brandon Marshall that moved from local competitor, NY Jets, to the Giants. He would provide additional weapon for 36 year old Eli Manning that hopes to engineer a third trip to the Super Bowl. The Giants will be the fifth team of Marshall’s career. On the defensive line, starter Jonathan Hankins departed to Indianapolis, which adds more of a load on Damon Harrison at DT.

    Fantasy Analysis: Dallas Cowboys

    For fantasy players Giant’s WR tandem of Beckham and Marshall generate a lot interest. Beckham will be top3 WR based on Accuscore fantasy predictions and clearly number one receiver to produce a high amount of fantasy point week after week. Marshall is a bit on decline in his career, but can still be top 20 receiver in this league. It looks like he would give more value in many leagues compared to Beckham.

    QB Eli Manning is ranked to 17th when all predicted fantasy points during the season have been summed up. As the running back situation is a bit open, there is no reason to spend draft slots on Giants running back in early rounds.

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    Washington continues without step forward

    Projected Wins: 7.5
    Division Rank: 3

    Washington’s chances to win NFC East are around 6% as Dallas and NY Giants are ahead of Redskins in many areas. However, their chances to reach playoffs are a bit over 20%. Last season was a small step backwards for the Washington Redskins. A freak tie led to eight wins, which was effectively 8.5 wins behind the nine win the team claimed in 2015. The Redskins missed out on the playoffs, and Accuscore predicts the Redskins will win between seven and eight games, and that likely would not be good enough for a wildcard berth.

    Washington needs to get off to a fast start with games against the wounded Eagles in Week 1 and a trip to the rebuilding Rams in Week 2. Washington has the toughest schedule among NFC teams, highlighted by tough non-division road trips to Seattle in Week 9, New Orleans in Week 11 and Kansas City in Week 4.

    Roster Moves

    The most notable changes in roster take place in receiver corps. Both starting WRs Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson took off from the nation’s capital. As a response, the Redskins signed Terrelle Pryor to be their no. 1 receiver.

    Fantasy Analysis: Dallas Cowboys

    When reviewing fantasy predictions, Pryor could be one of the top value players among WR. Accuscore’s season fantasy prediction lists him as number seven when all fantasy points are calculated. Tight end Jordan Reed is projected to be an early favorite to collect the most fantasy points among all TEs. His performance has been great, and we don’t have any reason to expect drops. Franchise tagged Kirk Cousins is a top 10 fantasy quarterback in the league but is a couple levels below the likes of Rodgers, Brees and Brady in fantasy.

    Too tough division for Eagles

    Projected Wins: 5.9
    Division Rank: 4

    The second pick of the 2016 draft, QB Carson Wentz had a reasonably good rookie season in the helm of Philadelphia Eagles offense. It cannot be compared to Dallas’ Dak Prescott, but he was performing better than no. 1 pick Jared Goff. Unfortunately for Wentz, he's in a tough division. The NFC East has two clearly better teams in the Cowboys and the Giants. Even though the Eagles made some good additions to the offense, simulations predict only 6 wins for Philadelphia. That would be one less than year ago. Based on Accuscore’s predictions, the Eagles will have 5% chances to playoffs. To win the division, they need a minor miracle, as the current probability win the division is around 2%.

    In games that the Eagles lost a season ago, they gave up at least 24 points to opponents. Comparatively, games the Eagles won only saw them give up 12 points on average.

    Roster Moves

    Philadelphia added running back LeGarrette Blount from the Patriots to bolster their running attack. There have been numerous examples of players exceling under Bill Belichick and not quite replicating the same output elsewhere. It will be interesting to see how Blount performs in Philadelphia. There are two high profile additions to wide receivers: Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. This gives more tools to QB Wentz and will improve the offense quite a bit. All three players should gain from each other’s presence. There weren’t any significant additions to the defense through free agency, but the Eagles spent their first three picks in the draft on defense. That should pay off for years to come.

    Fantasy Analysis: Dallas Cowboys

    Fantasy projections rank QB Wentz to number 24, RB Blount to number 22 and best WR Jeffery to number 30 among all players in their respective positions. These guys can be considered sleepers, but it won’t make too much sense to build the core of your fantasy team with these guys. Based on Accuscore’s fantasy predictions Eagles defense is ranked at fourth from the bottom.

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  • Super Bowl 52 Prop Bets: Odds Analysis - Points

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Super Bowl Prop Bets – Analyst Preview & Pick

    The Super Bowl is right around the corner and that means one thing -- one final pro football matchup to wager on. Let's take a look at a few prop bets for this weekend's Super Bowl matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots.

    First quarter point total 9.5 [OVER 9.5 (-130), UNDER 9.5 (-Even)]

    This one popped out to us immediately. Is it possible that neither team scores a TD in the first quarter? Let's take a look at some recent trends.

    Only five of the last 16 Super Bowl matchups have yielded more than nine points in the first quarter.

    But someone has to score a TD, right? And someone has to put up a field goal along with that? Right? Okay, let's take it a bit further.

    In the last seven Super Bowl matchups the Patriots have been involved in, the average is just a shade over 2 points total in the first quarter.

    NFL offensive coordinators tend to be a bit more conservative to start Super Bowl matchups.

    While we don't necessarily have quarter by quarter data, the 10,000-plus simulations suggest taking the OVER. The projected final score is 30-21, which would indicate double-digit scoring in each quarter -- on average.

    Which team will score first? [Philadelphia Eagles (-105), New England Patriots (-125)]

    This one's tough. But looking at the Patriots' previous Super Bowl matchups, it's clear they're a second half team. They're not necessarily worried about coming out of the gates with all cylinders firing -- they know they can even come back from a 28-3 deficit.

    With that in mind, it seems like a logical wager to think the Eagles will come out a little more desperate to get a lead.

    Eagles QB Nick Foles is known for throwing the ball downfield early and often, and we know Philly will need an early score to establish some confidence.

    AccuScore's full forecast and expert picks for the Patriots vs the Eagles on Sunday are live:SuperBowl 52 Picks

    Margin of Victory
    • Eagles by 1-6 points, 4/1 odds
    • Eagles by 7-12 points, 15/2 odds
    • Eagles by 13-18 points, 14/1 odds
    • Eagles by 19-24 points, 25/1 odds
    • Eagles by 25-30 points, 40/1 odds
    • Eagles by 31-36 points, 66/1odds
    • Eagles by 37-42 points, 100/1 odds
    • Eagles by 43+ points, 100/1 odds
    • Patriots by 1-6 points, 3/1 odds
    • Patriots by 7-12 points, 4/1 odds
    • Patriots by 13-18 points, 6/1 odds
    • Patriots by 19-24 points, 9/1 odds
    • Patriots by 25-30 points, 16/1 odds
    • Patriots by 31-36 points, 25/1 odds
    • Patriots by 37-42 points, 40/1 odds
    • Patriots by 43+ points, 50/1 odds

    The Patriots, despite their ridiculous amount of success in the past 10 years, haven't won a Super Bowl by more than six points. Now we can see why some of those double-digit margins have such wild odds.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • Super Bowl 52: Eagles vs Patriots - Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Super Bowl 52- Eagles vs Patriots: Preview & Pick

    AccuScore's full forecast and expert picks for the Patriots vs the Eagles on Sunday are live:SuperBowl 52 Picks

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    Super Bowl LII in Minnesota features the Philadelphia Eagles and oh-so-familiar New England Patriots in a matchup that has the defending champs favored by less than a touchdown. Let's take a closer look at the matchup and where the value is at.

    Vegas Odds

    New England opened as 6-point favorites before some public action brought the spread down a couple points. The total less movement compared to the spread, going up a point since it opened at 47.

    Betting Line: New England Patriots -4
    Total: 48

    At the time of publication, 55 percent of the public were taking the points and picking the Eagles.

    59 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    What to Watch For

    Eagles Run-Pass Option: Nick Foles has excelled with the run-pass option since taking over for Carton Wentz as the Eagles' QB, having completed closed to 94 percent of his run-pass option passes, compared to 61.5 percent in non run-pass option sets. Interestingly enough, the Pats have struggled against the run-pass option, allowing 5.6 yards per play -- fifth most (worst) in the NFL.

    Foles is projected to finish with 273 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

    Weapons: Brandin Cooks as an option downfield for Tom Brady has provided the team with a deep threat that the roster hasn't had in recent memory. With a minimum of 50 receptions, no player in the Tom Brady era has averaged more yards per reception in a season (16.6) than Cooks did in 2017. Taking it a step further, he led the league in defensive pass interference yards drawn -- accumulating a total of 209 yards on the season including playoffs so far.

    Cooks is projected to finish with 52 yards on 4 receptions. Brady is projected to finish with 278 passing yards and 2 TDs.

    Analyst's Pick
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    Other Previews: AccuScore's Super Bowl 52 Prop Bets - Odds & Picks