• 2018 NFL Playoffs Predictions - AccuScore's Bracket

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    2018 NFL Playoffs: AccuScore’s Predictions

    Finally, the 2018 NFL Playoffs are here.

    After 17 weeks of one of the most interesting NFL regular seasons in history, the playoffs are ready to kick-off. While Accuscore has simulated every game until the Super Bowl 52, let’s first take at how the computer performed in 2017.

    After picking spread, totals and moneyline for all 256 games.,..

    Accuscore’s Record for the 2017 NFL regular season
    • Against the Spread: 127-110-19, +600
    • Totals: 136-109-11, +1610
    • Moneyline: 167-89, +276
    Aggregate: +2486 profit

    As any shark will tell you, the point is to make a profit, and across the board, AccuScore made a profit and picked EVERY game this season.

    With a season full of data now ready to step up in the postseason, we have 11 Playoff games with which to increase our profits and pad that wallet.

    As a reminder...

    AccuScrore's 2017 NFL Playoffs Picks
    • Against the Spread: 8-3, +470
    • Totals: 6-5, +50
    • ML: 10-1, +510
    Aggregate: +1,030 profit

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    With the full 2017 regular season data incorporated, our computer simulated ever game 10,000 times to come up with our 2018 NFL playoff bracket. Our computer simulates every game 10,000 times and compares our percentages to the Vegas odds to make winning, value picks for each game on our NFL picks page. There’s a free preview there, too.

    2017 NFC South Projections and Preview

    It is not a fantastic surprise that the computer is sticking with its pre-season Super Bowl 52 pick, the New England Patriots. After few hiccups at the beginning of the season Tom Brady & company still finished with a first round bye and playing well enough to maintain their position as favorites.

    Another QB that has been on the top of the passing stats sheet, New Orleans’ Drew Brees seems to lead his team to another run to the Super Bowl. The Saints had one of the most difficult schedules during regular season, but their offense was once again able to provide enough production for 11 wins.

    There are tight 60-40 games across the playoffs board that will be updated after each round of games with playoff data. It’ll be interesting to see if rookie head coaches will continue their strong results into the postseason. Even though the Patriots are team to beat again, there is no single team that is head and shoulders ahead of the pack.

    The experience from previous Super Bowls is lifting some team’s probabilities a bit. New England, New Orleans and Pittsburgh have head coaches that have won Superbowls with their current teams. Stability helps. Head coaches of Kansas City, Atlanta and Carolina have Super Bowl experience on their resumes as well. Rookie head coaches and others with only little experience from the playoffs have to catchup in a hurry, with teams like Tennessee and Buffalo calculated at Super Bowl winning probabilities of 1%.

    Check back after every round for updated playoff projections

    AccuScore’s Expert NFL Game Picks: Click Here!

  • 2018 NFL Playoffs: Eagles vs Falcons Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    2018 NFL Playoffs: Eagles vs Falcons - Divisional Round Analyst Pick

    Back-to-back weekends with NFL action on a Saturday? We'll take it. We came through last Saturday letting you know Atlanta covering on the road in L.A. against the Rams was a lock. What's next for Atlanta?

    Let's take a closer look at this weekend's Falcons' matchup -- again on the road, this time against the Philadelphia Eagles.

    Our NFL Expert made two picks for Wildcard Weekend and got both right: Panthers +7 and Falcons +6.5...scroll to the bottom for his Analyst Pick for the Divisional Round...

    Vegas Odds

    With no Carson Wentz at QB for the Philadelphia Eagles, the Atlanta Falcons opened as 3-point favorites. The spread hasn't moved from there. The total opened at 44 before dropping quite a bit following some public action.

    Betting Line: Atlanta Falcons -3
    Total: 41.5

    At the time of publication, 55 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Falcons.

    54 percent of the action on the total has been on the UNDER.

    AccuScore Betting Trends: Wild Card Weekend
    • Against the Spread: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +790 profit)
    • Over/Under Picks: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +1800 profit)
    ...All of AccuScore's NFL 2018 Playoffs Picks: NFL Playoffs Picks (includes free full forecasts for Eagles vs Falcons)

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    Betting Trends
    • Atlanta is 2-5 against the spread [ATS] in its last seven games in the divisional round.
    • Philadelphia is 5-1 straight up [SU] in its last six games in the divisional round.
    • Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games at home.
    • Atlanta is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
    • Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
    • The OVER is 4-0 in Atlanta's last four divisional playoffs games.
    • The OVER is 4-0 in Philadelphia's last four games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.

    What to Watch For

    Force 'Em to Throw It: The Falcons' defense was solid last weekend against a potent Rams' offense. The Rams' offense thrives when it's able to mix-and-match with its pass-and-run game, but the Falcons forced them to beat them through the air. Rams QB Jared Goff threw the ball 45 times, becoming predictable and allowing the athletic Falcons linebackers to make an impact on the game. If Nick Foles throws the ball 45 times for Philly, an Atlanta win is guaranteed.

    Foles is projected to finish with 226 passing yards on 23 completions and 1 TD.

    Falcons' Offense: Atlanta QB Matt Ryan was efficient last week against the Rams, finishing with 200-plus yards completing 21-of-30 throws. The Falcons also ran the ball for over 100 yards. Above all, though, WR Julio Jones looked like himself after struggling with injuries in the final weeks of the regular season, catching nine passes for 94 yards against the Rams.

    Ryan is projected to finish with 262 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages more than three times as many TDs as INTs. Jones is projected to finish with 91 yards on 8 receptions; he averages 0.5 TDs per sim, meaning he finds the end-zone in every other simulated matchup.

    Analyst's Pick
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    More>> NFL Playoffs Analyst Pick: Viking vs Saints

  • 2018 NFL Playoffs: Vikings vs Saints Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    2018 NFL Playoffs: Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints - Divisional Round Analyst Pick

    Our NFL Expert made two picks for Wildcard Weekend and got both right: Panthers +7 and Falcons +6.5...scroll to the bottom for his Analyst Pick for the Divisional Round...

    The Minnesota Vikings very well could end up with a dream-like season if they ultimately advance to the Super Bowl being played in their home stadium. To get there, though, they'll have to get past the New Orleans Saints this weekend.

    Let's take a closer look at the matchup and where the value is.

    Vegas Odds
    Minnesota opened as 3.5-point favorites before shooting up to -5 in some books. The spread has settled at -4.5 in most books. The total opened at 45 before settling in about a point higher.

    Betting Line: Minnesota Vikings -4.5
    Total: 46.5

    At the time of publication, 57 percent of the public was taking the points and taking the Saints.

    61 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

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    AccuScore Betting Trends: Wild Card Weekend
    • Against the Spread: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +790 profit)
    • Over/Under Picks: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +1800 profit)
    ...All of AccuScore's NFL 2018 Playoffs Picks: NFL Playoffs Picks

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    Betting Trends
    • Minnesota is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 5 games at home.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games.
    • New Orleans is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games.

    What to Watch For

    QB Play: Case Keenum will start in his first playoff game this weekend, and playing in front of a home crowd should help to calm any added nerves. He threw for eight TDs and just two INTs in seven homes games this season. On the other side, we've got Drew Brees who went 4-4 straight up (SU) and ATS this season on the road; Brees is 1-4 SU in his career on the road, throwing for eight TDs and five INTs.

    Keenum is projected to finish with 261 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Brees is projected to finish with 282 passing yards, 2+ TDs and 1 INT.

    Weapons: In last week's matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Saints, a couple of Brees' weapons stood out. Wide receiver Michael Thomas came up huge late in the game, finishing with eight catches for 131 yards. WR Ted Ginn Jr. was clutch in the final quarter of play, finishing with 115 yards and 1 TD on four catches.

    Thomas is projected to finish with 69 yards on seven receptions; Ginn is projected to finish with 49 yards on four receptions.

    Analyst's Pick
    Members: Log in at the top right now to reveal AccuScore’s Analyst Pick

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  • NFL Wild Card Saturday: Rams vs Falcons Odds, Picks

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Wild Card Saturday: LA Rams vs Atlanta Falcons

    NFL on a Saturday? Yup, that's exactly what we've got this weekend as the NFL slate gives us two matchups on a Saturday for wild card weekend.

    Let's take a closer look at the matchup in Los Angeles that should have plenty of public and sharp action. The Rams, in just their second season in L.A., get set to host the Atlanta Falcons at the LA Memorial Coliseum.

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    Vegas Odds

    The Rams opened up at 5-point favorites at home before some public action pushed it up 1-to-1.5 points ,depending on when and where you're looking. The total saw similar movement, just the other way; the total settled in at 48 or 48.5 after opening at 50.

    Betting Line: Los Angeles Rams -6.5
    Total: 48/48.5

    At the time of publication, the public was about 50-50 in terms of laying or taking the points.

    63 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    All of AccuScore's NFL picks
    NFL Expert Picks – Wildcard Weekend

    Betting Trends

    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Rams' last five games.
    • The total has gone UNDER in five of Atlanta's last five games.
    • The Rams are 4-10-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 15 games at home.
    • The UNDER is 4-0 in the Falcons' last four matchups against a team with a winning record.
    • The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.

    What to Watch For
    Make vs the Pass Rush: Back in 2015, the Atlanta Falcons went ahead and passed on RB Todd Gurley. Dan Quinn could have had Gurley, but went ahead and selected pass rusher Vic Beasley. It seems to be working out just fine on both sides, but there's no doubt Gurley will look to remind Atlanta what they missed out on. He put up over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and scored close to 20 TDs this year -- he's easily one of best weapons any team has in the backfield.

    Gurley is projected to finish with 111 yards on 16-to-17 carries. He averages 1 TD per sim. He also adds close to 30 receiving yards on three receptions.

    Falcons' Defense: The Falcons just might be one of the tougher matchups for the Rams on the ground. They have a top-10 defense that has allowed just one team in their last six games to rush for over 100 yards. In the same vain, Atlanta has allowed more than 23 points in only two games this season. They're pretty, pretty good at staying within a TD given the improved defense in the second half of the season, and QB Matt Ryan getting back on track of late.

    The Falcons defense is projected to force more than 1 takeaway in Saturday's game, with there being about two times the probability of an INT than a recovered fumble.

    Ryan is projected to finish with 239 passing yards, and 1-to-2 TDs. He averages close to four times as many TDs as he does INTs. .

    Analyst's Pick
    Members: Log in at the top right now to reveal AccuScore’s Analyst Pick

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    Analyst Pick:: Atlanta covers on the road.

    The Falcons are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played on the west coast.

  • NFL Wild Card Sunday: Saints vs Panthers Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NFL Wild Card Sunday: New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

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    Wild card weekend continues Sunday with two more games on the NFL slate. Let's take a closer look at the matchup in New Orleans between the Carolina Panthers and Saints. New Orleans won both the regular season contests between the two sides.

    Vegas Odds

    There has been zero movement on the total since it opened at 48.5. Expect it to go up a bit as we get closer to the weekend, based on the public action so far.

    Betting Line: New Orleans Saints -7
    Total: 48.5

    At the time of publication, the public was about 50-50 in terms of laying or taking the points.

    65 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    • The Panthers are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games.
    • The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
    • The Panthers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on the road vs the Saints.
    • The Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs the Saints.

    All of AccuScore's NFL picks
    NFL Expert Picks – Wildcard Weekend

    What to Watch For

    Can the Panthers get to Drew Brees?: How one looks at this game is largely dependent on how you answer that question. If you're expecting Brees to do what he does best, then it's probably best to lay the points for NOLA. If you think the Panthers pass rush shows up Sunday, take the points and trust the defense.

    Here's the thing. Carolina's actually been great in the red zone this year, holding opponents to about a 47 percent success rate -- top 10 in the league.

    But, they also allowed 5.3 yards per play, just about middle-of-the pack thie season. They allowed close to a 64 percent completion, along with 11-plus yards per reception.

    Brees Brees is projected to finish with 311 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. He averages over 3 times the number of TDs per sim than he does INTs.

    The Carolina defense is projected to force 1-plus takeaway.Analyst's Pick
    Members: Log in at the top right now to reveal AccuScore’s Analyst Pick

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