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  • 2017 Orange Bowl: Wisconsin vs Miami - Analyst Pick & Preview

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Wisconsin vs Miami: Orange Bowl Analyst Pick

    Both Wisconsin and Miami may have just been a win or two away from playing the College Football Playoffs, but they'll have to take what's theirs at the Orange Bowl in Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Badgers had their eyes set on the playoffs a few weeks back, but don't expect them to be treat this as a give-away.

    Wisconsin is 3-0 straight up (SU) and 2-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past three bowl games while averaging 425.7 yards and 27 points per game.

    Let's take a closer look at where the value is in this matchup.

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    Vegas Odds
    There has practically been no movement on the spread or total since the lines opened. The Badgers just moved up a half-point since opening as 6-point favorites.

    Betting Line: Wisconsin -6.5
    Total: 45

    At the time of publication, 52 percent of the public were taking the points and picking Miami.

    Action on the total has been on about even on the OVER/UNDER.

    What to Watch For
    Badgers' Defense: This season, Wisconsin gave up just 4.24 yards per play and 253.2 yards per game. Their overall defense (ypc) was No. 1 in the country, and grew to be the team's best feature as things into October and November this season.

    In the Big Ten Championship, the Ohio State Buckeyes finished with 27 points, the highest total Wisconsin had given up so far. On the year, the Badgers' defense allowed opponents to score just 13.2 points per game, No. 3 in the country.

    The Miami offense is led by QB Malik Rosier, RB Travis Homer, and WR Braxton Berrios. Rosier is projected to finish with 163 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT; he actually averages more INTs per sim than he does TDs. Homer is projected to finish with 59 yards on 12-to-13 carries, while Berrios is projected to reel in 42 yards on three-to-four receptions. Homer has a slightly her probability of finding the end zone than does Berrios.

    Runnin' Wild: Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor has averaged 218.3 rushing yards in games after he was held to fewer than 100.

    Taylor s projected to finish with 135 yards on 24 carries; he averages 0.9 TDs per sim, indicating there's a very high probability he finds the end zone against Miami.

    Analyst's Pick
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  • Free College Football Analyst Pick: Army vs Navy

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Army vs Navy: College Football Free Analyst Pick

    Can Army win this matchup two seasons in a row? After not winning a matchup against Navy in 14 years, Army finally notched a win last year. They head into this weekend's matchup as slight underdogs, understandable when you realize Navy has won 17-of-20 matchups since 1996.

    Vegas Odds
    The spread has held constant since opening, but the total dropped about five points since opening at 51.5.

    Betting Line: Navy -3
    Total: 46

    At the time of publication, close to 55 percent of the public were laying the points and taking Navy.

    54-plus percent of the action on the total has been on the UNDER.

    AccuScore has picks for every major Division 1-A game:Saturday's College Football Picks*
    *includes full free forecast of Army vs Navy

    Betting Trends
    - Army is 3-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last 3 games vs Navy.
    - The OVER is 5-1 in Army's last six games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

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    What to Watch For

    Dominating the Ground Game: Navy is really, really good at running the ball -- especially at home. They're No. 1 in the country in rushing offense at home, going against a defense that ranks No. 76 in run defense on the road. On average, Army gives up 184.2 yards per game on the ground on the road.

    Zach Abey is projected to lead the way for Navy with close to 110 yards on 20 carries. He averages 1-plus TDs per sim, so expect to see him in the end zone. Malcolm Perry is projected to finish with a productive 85 yards on 9-to-10 carries, averaging 1 TD per sim.

    Black Knights Defense: Army is only giving up 21 points per game this season -- one of the more consistent defenses in the country. They did give up 52 to Texas, but that seems to be an outlier looking at the season as a whole.

    Navy is projected to put up 28 points this weekend.

    FREE Analyst's Pick
    The OVER.

    The OVER is 5-2 in Army's last seven games.

  • Troy at Arkansas State: College Football Preview & Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Troy at Arkansas State: College Football Saturday Pick

    There's plenty of NCAA Football action this Saturday and we've got a play that's going against Vegas odds. Arkansas State hosts the Trojans of Troy Saturday in probably what's the most evenly-matched pairing of the day.

    Vegas Odds

    Arkansas opened as 1-point favorites before the game settled as a pick 'em in most books; some books, however actually had the line move to the other side with Troy as a half-point to 1-point favorite.

    The total opened at 58.5 before settling a bit higher at 59.5/60.

    Betting Line: Pick 'Em
    Total: 60

    At the time of publication, public action on the spread was evenly split 50-50.

    76 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

    AccuScore has picks for every major Division 1-A game:Saturday's College Football Picks

    Betting Trends
    - Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
    - Troy is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games on the road.
    - The total has gone OVER in 4 of Troy's last 6 games when playing Arkansas State

    What to Watch For

    Arkansas State's 14th-ranked offense is led by Justice Hansen's 32 TD passes -- an offense that does a remarkable job of spreading the ball around. They've got depth and experience in their receivers, but it just might be TE Blake Mack who shines the brightest. He has caught 40 passes to go along with 7 TDs this season.

    Hansen is projected to finish with 257 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

    Mack averages 0.3 TDs per sim, to go along with 38 yards on 3 receptions.

    Troy has run for 1,758 yards as a unit this season, putting them 84th in the nation. They average about 5.1 yards per unit.

    Jordan Chunn is projected to lead the way on the ground for Troy on Saturday. He averages 110 yards and 1+ TDs per sim.

    Analyst's Pick

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