Sport Betting System Explained

The starting page all AccuScore users and bettors need to become familiar with is the
Expert Picks Page.

This is the place that displays each of the games active in our system divided by sport – NFL, college football, MLB, NBA, college basketball, NHL, and soccer.

This page lists everything you need to know about AccuScore game simulations. Each game is listed with the date, start time, and several other tools available to premium subscribers. Information such as the point spread, over/under, and money line are also available here.


Our Tools Available: Point Spread, Over/Under, and Player Props

Point Spread
This tool allows you to adjust the point spread of a specific game to match the line of whatever sportsbook you personally use. AccuScore’s simulation results for that line are automatically adjusted.
Point Spread

Over/Under
Just like the point spread tool, the Over/Under tool allows you to adjust the point totals for specific games and see the % results from AccuScore simulations.
Over/Under Tool

Player Props
This tool allows users to project and adjust the major player prop statistics that can be typically found in most sports books.

Player Props Tool


4 Expert Picks Offered: Side Value, Moneyline, Point Spread, and Totals


AccuScore tracks betting trends related to every one of these picks for members to follow.

Side Value

Baseball Side Value (SV):
AccuScore translates the baseball lines offered by Las Vegas casinos into a probability out of 100%. This is the oddmakers’ probability of winning or losing, and AccuScore represent this as “LW%” in the Expert Baseball Picks. Independently, AccuScore runs our industry leading and award winning computer simulations 10,000 to 20,000 times on every game. The results of these simulations are represented as Sim% in the expert picks section. If the Sim% is higher than the LW%, AccuScore’s simulations calculate value on picking that outcome because our Super computer believes Las Vegas’ odds offer value. Or simply: Side Value (SV) exists if Sim% is greater than LW. In the baseball expert picks section, AccuScore has 2 sets of star picks related to the outcome of the game: Moneyline pick and Side Value picks. If a member clicks on the star pick related to the Side Value, Members will see the Side Value trends that make a pick 4 or 3 stars.
Side Value

Moneyline
AccuScore’s Moneyline picks are quite simple. If over 50% of AccuScore simulations (sim%) resulted in a particular outcome, that is AccuScore’s moneyline pick. For example, if the Angels beat the A’s in 53% of simulations, then, AccuScore’s moneyline pick is the Angels.

In the baseball expert picks section, AccuScore has 2 sets of star picks related to the outcome of the game: Moneyline pick and Side Value picks. If a member clicks on the star pick related to the Moneyline, Members will see the Moneyline trends that make a pick 4 or 3 stars.

For football betting systems, the moneyline pick uses the same process as baseball and can be found in the NFL Expert Picks section.
Money Line

Football: Against the Spread - ATS
For football, AccuScore makes picks against the spread.
For example: Assume the spread is Army -6.5 points against Navy

AccuScore displays the % of simulations that finished with Army winning by 7 or more points and the % of simulations that resulted in Army winning by 6 or fewer points or losing. If Army won 53% of simulations by 7 or more points, then, AccuScore’s college football pick would be to pick Army against the spread because over 50% of simulations finished with Army winning by 7 or more points. Below the pick in the College Football Expert Picks, AccuScore assigns a star value based on trends. If you click the stars, you can see the trends that makes the pick 3 or 4 stars.
ATS


Totals

The third type of pick is Totals. This refers to the total number of points/runs/goals the two teams will combine to score. AccuScore’s totals picks are as simple to understand as AccuScore’s moneyline picks:

If greater than 50% of AccuScore’s simulations result in the Over, then the picks is the Over. If greater than 50% of the simulations result in the Under, then the pick is Under. For example: if the Patriots v Dolphins line is 33.5 points, and 55% of AccuScore simulations resulted in 33 or fewer combined points, then, AccuScore’s pick would be Under 33.5 for that game.

We keep track of trends for each totals pick and this determines whether the pick is 1, 2, 3, or 4 stars. If a member clicks on the star rating in the NFL Expert Picks section, they can view the trends that determined the star value.
totals


Other Important Information Available on the Expert Picks Page

Star Ratings
AccuScore Advisor star ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 4. These stars are based historical computer simulation trends. The star rating is based on the previous trends associated with a pick, not the sim percentage of a pick. For example, if New York beats Miami 80% of the time in simulations, but AccuScore has been inaccurate in predicting matches involving Miami and New York, this may only be a 1 or 2 start pick. In contrast, if Washington beats Seattle in 51% of simulations, but AccuScore has been nearly perfect in prediciting matches involving Seattle and Washington, this would be a 4 star pick.The star system is identifies picks based on trends, not based on simulation percentage.
Clicking on the Star Ratings displays a pop-up that will give the simulation %, team trends, and DLR trends. The important information is the DLR trends that shows our record in the games involving those teams. The Star Ratings depend on our historical results plus the resulting ROI. That means that at the start of the season for leagues, there are no Ratings available because there are inherently no trends for that particular season. Star ratings are given for both moneyline and side value picks (ML and SV picks explained above).

star


Trends
AccuScore computer trends can be found by clicking on the Star Ratings. The pop-up will display the simulation %, trends for both teams involved in the selected game, and DLR trends that show our record in games involving either team plus the resulting ROI.

DLR trends are our trends with those specific teams. Team trends are the records each team has against the lines. Both teams having good DLR trends are good because it means the computer has a good record with them, and that they play consistently to the way the computer simulates them. If teams have a bad DLR record it could be because the team has made a lot of changes for example, or that it plays wildly inconsistently which makes it hard to predict what that team will do.
Star Popup


Sweat Barometer
This can be found with the trend information on the expert pick pages. This number simply tells you how much that individual team has covered the spread (+/-) for each game during the season.  For example, a sweat barometer of 3 would mean that the team has beaten the spread by an average of 3 points.
Sweat Barometer


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