How do Oddsmakers Make the Odds
In many respects, Las Vegas oddsmakers aren’t any different to our programmers at AccuScore. They rely on a heavily scientific formula that allows them to project what the expected point total will be for each team involved in a game.
While that is a very basic way of putting it, it is very cumbersome process. Vegas uses tons of data on the player and teams to come to up with a conclusion on how a game will go. However, that “raw” outcome is not what they use to make a line.
Goal for Oddsmakers
At their core, Vegas oddsmakers are looking to balance their books, meaning they want an equal amount of bets on each team. If they can accomplish that, they will make the vig, which is a guaranteed profit of 10-percent of all money bet on the losing team.
However, sports oddsmakers are no different than a player who spends his time looking for edges. Because they are the final arbiter in making a line, an oddsmaker might add or deduct points from the sports betting line if they feel the public is willing to pay the inflated rate.
The best example I can give is when the New York Giants played the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. Our simulation line had the Patriots as a 9.5-point favorite, as did other computer based formulas and well known sports handicappers. However, Vegas knew that the Patriots were 18-0 and felt that they could inflate the point spread up to 13-points. The Patriots had not lost a game, beat the Giants four weeks earlier and it seemed very reasonable that the they would beat the Giants by two touchdowns.
The fact that the Giants won the game has no meaning to my point. Oddsmakers rely on a unique algorhythm to create a betting line for that game. Once they get that number for the spread, they then have the right to alter the line to make it more attractive to one side, or give them a statistical advantage based on the math.
With NFL betting lines being the best in the business, the oddsmakers ability to add 3.5 points to the price it costs to bet on the favorite in the Super Bowl gave the house a tremendous advantage over the player. The knew the public would overpay and they did.
AccuScore is a Proven System
AccuScore’s core business is game simulations, and we simulate over 10,000 games each year. We also do simulations against the spread and for the over/under. We are not trying to balance the books or create an advantage for the house. For each game, AccuScore provides what our simulation engine feels is the appropriate line for that particular game. Subscribers can find out each game’s “AccuScore Line” by clicking on the star rating when logged into Advisor.