A betting system can mitigate the volatility of sports betting and turn it into an investment. A player has several options; they can create a system or use an existing one. In each case, we recommend getting into a system that has a foundation that makes sense and a sample size to support your thesis.
Systems Provide Roadmaps to Follow
A top betting system gives you a road map to the games you want to choose and the ones you want to stay away from. For a system to develop, the minimum threshold for a sample size is 20-percent of the season. That’s is 3-4 NFL games, 2 College Football games, 16 NBA/NHL games and 6-8 College Basketball games.
Follow Less Turnover
Teams often change year to year, and the best systems are developed around teams that have little turnover. In college football, teams who return 14 or more starters allow you to use their previous year as a sample and indication of who they might be. The same is true for professional sports. Early in the season, avoid teams who had heavy turnover, especially in key positions. With the acquisition of LeBron James, the Miami Heat were overwhelming favorites during their first 21 games, yet posted a mediocre record of 11-10.
If you bet the NBA this past year, and did not wait for seasonal data to mature, chances are you took a bath on the Heat. As a statistical sports forecasting company who projects outcomes from the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, College Football and Basketball, we have access to hundreds of trends on a daily basis. The key is being patient enough for the data to come in so it can be analyzed.
It’s important to know what a top sports betting system is. At it’s core, a system is a pre-requisite for what you will bet on. It could be only underdogs, teams from the AFC West, Miami Heat home games, etc. But it is a defined parameter that gives you guidance on games/situations that provide an edge and where to put your money. Another way of looking at a system is viewing it as a trend.
Once you have developed enough of a sample size, betting system can help you win. The best insurance against variance is the long sample. So once you find a winning system or trend you like, focus on it for a set period of time.
Betting into a system or trend as a “one-off” kills all supporting data that made the trend attractive. However betting on a trend over time makes you more likely to produce a result similar to the system’s history.
For example, during the 2010 NBA Season, when the Dallas Mavericks were on the road, the AccuScore against the spread computer pick for that game had a record of 33-14 (70%). If you picked a random Dallas road game in February, it is very possible you might have picked them on an off night. However, Dallas’s 70-percent win rate showed up early and had you created an basketball betting system where you only took the AccuScore pick when Dallas was on the road, you would have had a healthy profit from that system.
Not Falling for Casual Betting MistakesIt’s one thing to have a feel for a game, but another to know that it has a higher probability of winning. The casual player doesn’t look at sports betting that way. They see ball, they hit ball. When you play to a system, you are always aware of the games and teams that have the best chance of winning.
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