Written by Rohit Ghosh
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UCLA vs Florida: Sweet 16 Preview
UCLA basketball had its fans hopeful during the 2006 and 2007 season. The rosters had everything it needed to add at least one more national championship to the university’s list of accomplishments. And yet, in both seasons, the Bruins were knocked out of the Final Four by the Florida Gators. No. 1 Florida enters this Sweet Sixteen matchup after beating 61-45 in the round of 32, while No. 4 UCLA gets a chance to upset Florida after beating Stephen F. Austin 77-60.
AccuScore has Florida as 55 percent favorites to win Thursday night vs UCLA. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 70-68, with the Bruins having a 58.2 percent chance of covering the +4.5 spread. If you expect the Bruins to keep the game close, you might as well take the OVER bet also - UCLA dictating the tempo means a high scoring contest. There’s a 49.6 percent chance the score will go OVER 137.
Betting Trends
• The Bruins are undefeated in last 5 games straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS)
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Bruins’ last 6 games
• Florida is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Gators’ last 5 games
• The Gators are 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
AccuScore has expert picks against the spread and on Over/Unders for this game and every other Sweet 16 games...take a look at AccuScore's star-rated College Basketball Picks.
Projected Leaders
Jordan Adams (UCLA): 15 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal
Kyle Anderson (UCLA): 12 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists
Michael Frazier II (Florida): 13 points (3-6 3PM), 2 assists
What To Watch For
It’s Florida’s adaptive defense against a fast-break reliant UCLA offense. Florida has the ability to present a variety of looks defensively, switching seamlessly from a 1-3-1 extended zone to a straight man-to-man with switches on all pick-and-rolls. They rank No. 2 in the nation in opponent points per game - holding opponents to an average of 57.5 points per game. UCLA, on the other hand, has one of the most fast-break heavy offenses, ranking No. 13 in the nation. Over 20 percent of their possessions categorized under transition.
The Gators’ roster has very little consistent outside-shooting after Michael Frazier II. UCLA can easily zone up on a team that has shot just 25 percent from the three-point line so far in the NCAA Tournament.
Keep an eye on Florida guard Scottie Wilbekin, especially in the second half. The Gators rely on him for offense in late-game situations. Wilbekin is projected to finish with 12 points, 5 assists, 3 rebounds and 1 steal.
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