Written by Jonathan Lee

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2013 NCAA Tournament: West Region Analysis

Top seed: Gonzaga
The Zags finally broke through and made history for their program: a No. 1 seed. They get rewarded with games in the West Region, but do face the looming threat of Ohio St. (a trendy Final Four pick), New Mexico (champs of the underappreciated MWC), Kansas St., and Wisconsin in their bracket. Gonzaga seems to be the most common No. 1 seed not picked to advance to the Final Four. AccuScore numbers do show that they are the least likely of the top seeds to advance to Atlanta, but by only fractions of a percentage. They played well enough to deserve this seed and profile as a top team. Still, a solid Pitt team looms in their second game and both Kansas State and Wisconsin have both proven capable of beating any team in the country.

Underseeded: Wisconsin
Sure, the Badgers lost 11 games and “deserve” this seed but they are capable of so much more. They have wins over Indiana, Ohio St., and Michigan this year and their style of play can give teams fits who are not used to playing it. Their players don’t wow your with their athleticism, but they are simply effective and play as a 5-man unit. The Badgers would be favored over 4-seed Kansas State winning 55 percent of simulations.

AccuScore ‘s Expert NCAA Tournament picks against the spread and on totals are available now on the College Basketball Expert Picks page.

Team to Avoid: Arizona
The committee didn’t respect the Pac-12, and yet still rewarded Arizona despite the Wildcats losing six times in-conference during the regular season (seven if you count the Colorado buzzer game) and three times to UCLA. The ‘Cats basically banked goodwill with a last second win at home over Florida and a win over Miami without Reggie Johnson. Since then, Arizona has not been appreciable better than Oregon, Cal, or Colorado who all received double-digit seeds. Belmont is a serious threat in the first game with the Bruins winning 45.4 percent of the time. Mark Lyons is a truly erratic player who has shown all season he is not a point guard, and not a true steadying influence either. The frontcourt bigs are very talented, particularly the freshmen but there is nobody to get them the ball. Don’t expect a deep run.

Mighty Mid-Major: Belmont
The Bruins are 45 percent likely to get that first win against Arizona. They’ve lost just twice in 2013, and are the second best shooting team in the nation with a 56.8 eFG%. While they lack size inside, their strength is with the guards Kerron Johnson and Ian Clark which matches up nicely against Arizona. New Mexico would actually be the most vulnerable 3-seed if Marquette were not so wildly overseeded in the East Region.

Check the AccuScore Home page for the latest picks, analysis, and 2013 NCAA Tournament coverage.