Written by Jonathan Lee
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NCAA Tournament 2013: Midwest Region
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Top seed: Louisville
The ‘Ville probably gets the toughest 2/3 combo in Duke and Michigan State, but luckily only have to play one. Still, the Cardinals would be favored against both (55 and 64 percent), and are the second most likely champion in the field (9.9 percent) behind Kansas. The second game against either Missouri or Colorado St. has the potential to be sneaky, but shouldn’t be too much trouble overall. This Louisville obviously has great experience form last year’s tournament run and is built for this style of play with a tremendous team defense. The one real weakness of this squad is the shooting ability of the backcourt of Peyton Siva and Russ Smith. But if Rick Pitino can keep at least one going well, Louisville should be in for a deep run.
Underseeded: Oregon
The Ducks won the Pac-12 tournament, and their profile is not any appreciable worse than say Notre Dame’s. The Irish received a 7-seed while Oregon got a 12, part of an overall lack of respect for the Pac-12 teams in the field. Much of Oregon’s poor play can be attributable to the injury to Dominic Artis who is now back playing. Although he is not 100 percent, he is a difference maker for the team. Oregon isn’t likely to upset Oklahoma State (only 36 percent) but they deserved a better fate than this. The x-factor for the Ducks will be Arsalan Kazemi who is a very physical inside player, and could easily give the Cowboys problems.
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Team to Avoid: Memphis
Josh Pastner has yet to win a tournament game during his tenure, and while his team is 30-4, it is hardly battle-tested. The Tigers only played three top 50 teams in KenPom’s rankings, all before Christmas, and lost to all three (Louisville, Minnesota, VCU). It’s almost completely impossible to judge this team at all given the level of competition it faces in Conference USA. St. Mary’s is the probable opponent coming out of Dayton, and the Gaels are a very solid team that could give most teams trouble with Waldow and Dellavadova.
Mighty Mid-Major: St. Mary’s or Middle Tennessee State
This pick is almost by default as Valparaiso, Albany, Liberty, and North Carolina A&T can’t reasonably be expected to do much against their opponents. Memphis isn’t really considered a mid-major at this point despite the tremendous weakness of their conference. Creighton is seeded 7th, and Colorado St. plays in the Mountain West, one of the best leagues in the country despite the casual fan not noticing. That leaves the Gaels and Raiders who square off Tuesday in Dayton. Winner gets the questionable Memphis squad that is talented and appears to be good, but nobody is quite sure how good. MTSU is a quality defensive team, and won 17 straight games in the Sun Belt to make it in the field off the bubble.
