Premier League Expert Analysis: Newcastle vs Manchester City


While the rest of the European football leagues are on holidays – or winter break as some sugarcoat it – in England the teams are in the midst of their busiest time of the year. Even midweek the games roll on and tonight we have our eyes on Newcastle vs Manchester City.

League leading City has finally taken the next step under the guidance of Pep Guardiola and have looked unstoppable this season. They are yet unbeaten in Premier League through half the season and have only drawn once. Actually, they’ve lost only once all season – in a meaningless Champions League game in Ukraine. Possessing a comfortable 12 point lead in the Premier League and a game in hand, the title is theirs to lose for sure. City’s road record is perfect so far, with nine wins in nine games and ridiculous goals for/against ratio of 24:5. Their road record includes wins over Manchester United and Chelsea as well. No need to emphasize City’s magnificent form, but they’ve scored four goals in each of the past three Premier League games and only conceded once.

Newly promoted Newcastle started well, but then succumbed to a nine game spell without a win and with only one point. All-important win in the last round vs another struggler West Ham gave Rafa Benitez a bit of a breathing room, but Newcastle is still very much in the relegation battle. The Magpies have collected 18 points in 19 games and have only scored once per game on average. The defense has worked somewhat better, with 29 goals conceded, setting the average a tad over 1.5 per game. At home they’ve not been particularly good: three wins in nine games and only nine goals scored. As stated before, they are now 1-1-8 in the past 10 games and lost four in a row at home.

Accuscore Analysis

In Accuscore simulations, there’s practically only one winner. Manchester City takes home three points with 78.7 % probability, leaving Newcastle with 7 % and draw with 14.4 %. The chance of an upset is so small there’s no reason to even try to mine underdog value here: even in simulations the value lies in Manchester City, if only marginally as the oddsmakers offer some 78 % for City win.

The visitors score close to a three goals per game in simulations, averaging 2.97. The home team on the other hand might be able to pull one back, scoring 0.83 on average. It’s likely a rather lopsided game, but goals have come in bunches for City so we can look at totals going over.

Accuscore Analyst Picks

As everything runs through Manchester City win, there’s not a lot of value odds available. For those brave risk takers, there’s slight value in City -2.0 Asian Handicap with odds of +115 | 2.15.

The best value in the game can be found in the over selection. Total goals over 3.5 offers hover around +110 | 2.10 and the simulations indicate over to hit its target approximately 53 % of the time.