Premier League Expert Analysis: Leicester vs Stoke

Premier League: Leicester vs Stoke - 24 February 2018


The afternoon game on Saturday’s Premier League round features Leicester and Stoke. The home team is currently 8th in the league while the visitors have struggled and are right in the middle of relegation battle at 19th place.

Neither team has really surprised as Accuscore’s pre-season forecast predicted Leicester to take 6th place and Stoke to go down from the last place of the Premier League. Only 11 games remain, but the fight for survival is immense: the point difference between relegation and 8th place is only nine points.

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Leicester has had a quite average season in many counts. Their record Is 9-8-10 with 35 points in 27 games. Even their goal difference is average as they’ve scored 39 and conceded 40. They’ve lost two of their last five, on the road to Manchester City and Everton and tied on away with Chelsea and home with Swansea. Only W in last five was home victory over Watford. Despite the trend looking dire, Leicester has played well and have been especially strong at home: in past 10 home games they’ve only lost to Manchester City and Crystal Palace, while beating Watford, Huddersfield, Burnley, Tottenham and Everton. Jamie Vardy continues to lead the team with 13 goals, with want-away Riyad Mahrez supporting with eight goals and eight assists.

Not much has gone right for Stoke City this season. Despite the obvious quality in their lineup, the team simply hasn’t been able to produce results but have collapsed time and time again. Paul Lambert arrived on January 16th to save the team, after Mark Hughes was fired after 200 games at the helm. With Lambert, Stoke has won one, lost one and tied two. Remarkably, all the games were played against bottom-10 teams and three of them at home. Resulting 1.25 points per game is not exactly an improvement. Stoke posts a record of 6-7-14 and 25 points in 27 games. They’re staggering -26 in goal difference and dead last in goals conceded with 56. Stoke is also the worst team in the league on the road, with only one win and six points in 13 away games.

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Accuscore Simulations

Leicester City is a clear favorite to win the game at home, with 61.3% probability according to simulations. The draw is the second most likely result with 22.8% and Stoke wins only 15.9% chance to capture three points from King Power Stadium.

The home team scores over two goals on average in simulations, precisely 2.09. The visitors manage to score 0.99 goals on average. The most likely result is 2-1 home win, but 2-0 comes close as well

Most likely goal scorers play for the home team Leicester. Jamie Vardy hits the net with 52.64% probability and Riyad Mahrez supports with 44.36%. The most likely player to score for the visiting Stoke is Xherdan Shaqiri, whose percentage is 19.16%.

Expert Picks

There’s no looking past the home team here. They’re slightly undervalued by odds so there’s nice value for much better team still in the hunt for European qualification. Always look for the best odds available using a search engine such as

  • Leicester to win, 61.3 % - take the home win with odds of 1.63 | -157 or better
    • For better odds and added risk: Leicester -1.0 AH with odds of +120 | 2.20 or better
  • Over 2.5 goals, 58% - take over 2.5 goals with odds of 1.73 | -138

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