Premier League Expert Analysis: Arsenal vs Chelsea

 

Tonight’s rivalry matchup in Premier League round 22 features no. 6 Arsenal hosting no. 3 Chelsea in a Battle of London.

The hosts are once again scrambling for Europe, their record of 11-5-5 is carrying them only to the 6th spot. Arsenal’s issue has once again been dropping unnecessary points to WBAs and West Hams, as they’ve posted 11 wins in 21 games so far – for example, leagued leading Manchester City has 20 wins. In addition Arsenal has lost five, which then adds up to 38 points in 21 games. They’ve scored 1.81 goals and allowed 1.24, also posting the worst goal difference in top-6.

Their current form is not too encouraging, with a pair of wins and three draws from the last five. At home, Arsenal has performed better, winning 8 of 10 and losing only once. At home their goal difference is 2.5 for and 1.0 against – a formula that usually equals winning. However, the top teams have had a field day at Emirates, with Liverpool snatching a 3-3 draw in a wild game last round and Manchester United stunning Wenger’s squad with 1-3 victory early December.

Chelsea on the other hand, if not quite as dominating as expected, have rallied towards New Year’s only losing one in 13 Premier League games. Overall Chelsea has gathered 45 points in 21 games, which justifies 3rd spot in Premier League. Manchester City is 17 points ahead, but United only two points – and Chelsea has this game in hand. While the Blues have also dropped points on the way, their record is admirable 14-3-4.

Antonio Conte’s offense has somewhat struggled, scoring only 39 goals so far. Maybe it’s what should be expected, because of rather conservative approach, In contrast, Chelsea’s defense has been a stone wall. They’re only bested by Man City in goals conceded: Chelsea has allowed 14 and City 13.

Chelsea is not a bad road team overall, with six wins, two losses and two draws in their pocket from 10 away games. Their scoring issues – or features of their approach – have been evident on the road: they’ve scored 1.8 goals on average, while allowing only 0.7. The last five road games could’ve gone better as they drew with Everton and Liverpool, while losing to West Ham. Huddersfield and WBA were overran as expected.

Injuries/suspensions: Chelsea – David Luiz (out), Arsenal – Santi Cazorla, Olivier Giroud, Nacho Monreal, Aaron Ramsey (out), Sead Kolasinac (25% in), Mesut Özil (75% in)

Accuscore’s Analysis

In Accuscore’s simulations Arsenal is a favorite to win at home, but only with 39.9 % probability. The game end in a draw with 29.7 % likelihood while Chelsea takes home three points with 30.4 %. The odds indicate the away team Chelsea as favorites, so there’s nice value for home team and the draw.

Overall in simulations the score stays low and close. On average Arsenal scores 1.4 goals per simulations, while Chelsea is left to 1.2. Arsenal’s Alexandre Lacazette is the most likely scorer with 38.8 % probability to hit the net, while Alexis Sanchez and Chelsea’s Alvaro Morata score with ~31 % likelihood.

Analyst Picks

Although Chelsea is in a slightly better form, simulations like Arsenal with the draw compared to currently available odds. Draw no Bet or Arsenal with 0.0 handicap seems the most playable considering the risk of a draw, but there’s value in other odds as well.

  • Arsenal to win +200 | 3.00 (33.33%) - Accuscore odds +151 | 2.51 (39.9%)
  • Draw +250 | 3.50 (28.57%) - Accuscore odds +236 | 3.36 (29.7%)
  • Arsenal: Draw no bet (or handicap 0.0) +112 | 2.12 (47.17%)
  • Double chance 1X: -173 | 1.58 (63.29%) - Accuscore odds -228 | 1.44 (69.6%)
  • Scoring
    • Sanchez, Morata – Accuscore odds +234 | 2.34