Written by Shahan Ahmed

Last Week

Internazionale

Last weekend, Inter put forward their best performance of the season. Even Allegri was quoted as saying, “Inter are doing well, as can be seen against Parma. They are currently playing their best football of the season.” Diego Milito scored twice and finally looked like the player who was named UEFA Player of the Year 2 seasons ago. With Wesley Sneijder still not deemed fit enough to start, Ricardo Alvarez drifted out wide-left but freely moved into the middle as the central playmaker behind Pazzini and Milito with great effect. Inter won 5-0.

Ricky Alavarez has shown glimpses of brilliance and skill in Sneijder’s absence, but this was his best performance for the Nerazzurri since arriving over the summer. Alvarez was elusive and intelligent with his passing, dribbles, and crosses; he looked and played like another Ricky who sparkled at the San Siro—Ricky Kaka. Alvarez created Milito’s first goal and a handful of other chances. Although he began to hold the ball a little bit too long as the match wore on, the 23-year old Argentine indicated that he possesses the quality and skill to fill Sneijder’s shoes, should the Dutchman move on. Alvarez has an assist in each of his last 3 appearances with Inter.

Milan

In their return from the winter holiday, AC Milan travelled to Atalanta and faced off against the other Nerazzurri of Serie A. Ahead of Milan’s visit, the Bergamo-based club had not lost a single match on their home pitch, which included fixtures against Udinese, Inter, and Napoli. Milan, however, procured a 2-0 victory due to a virtuosic performance from Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Ibra scored Milan’s penalty from the spot despite Atalanta keeper Cosigli guessing correctly. Then, the towering Swede expertly chested down a 30 yard pass—directing it to the by-line—and put in a low cross to the feet of a charging Kevin-Prince Boateng in the centre of the box for Milan’s 2nd goal.


Diego Milito was UEFA Footballer of the Year & Attacker of the year for 2009-10

Formations and Strategy

Milan

An interesting twist in Milan’s set up last weekend was that Pato earned the start alongside Ibrahimovic, rather than Robinho. Robinho has been a better fit to partner with the Swede since Cassano went down due to heart complications. Robinho has played alongside Ibra far more often this season, even when Pato has been fit. Perhaps, this was a move to keep Pato happy after he was linked with a move to PSG. As a note, Pato was the fouled party for Milan’s penalty, but that foul was rather reckless by the defender, more than it was due to Pato’s brilliance. It’s hard to argue with Allegri’s choice whether he decides to go with Pato or Robinho against Inter, as both are first class attackers. Personally, I think Robinho and Ibrahimovic is the superior combination, and Allegri has agreed with me for most of the season. Robinho does miss a great deal of chances, but he if not for his movement, those chances would not exist.

Allegri also added another twist in Milan’s set up against Atalanta. Rather than start Kevin-Prince in an attacking role behind the two strikers, as has been the case in the majority of Milan’s matches this season, the German-born Ghanaian dropped deeper in the midfield. Dutchman Urby Emanuelson played in the hole. Emanuelson came over to Milan from Ajax last January, but the winger/left back had not made much of an impression to this point. To be fair to him, he has only started 3 Serie A matches and 2 Champions League matches this season, and he has been exclusively used as a midfielder by the Milan boss. Also to be fair to him, he has not exactly disappointed in those appearances—Milan are unbeaten with 4 wins when Emanuelson starts this season.

Internazionale

Maicon has been one of the most influential pieces during Inter’s resurgence. Last week, the Brazilian full back was not only bombing up the sides, but often, he was probing forward through the middle. When Maicon would push forward to create, as he did on Diego Milito’s 2nd goal, Javier Zanetti would drop into the right back role and provide ample cover. As much as Inter’s early lack of form was due to Gasperini’s 3-4-3 and volatility in the coaching staff, Inter’s current form is largely due to a healthy back 4. Julio Cesar and the Inter back four have only allowed 1 goal during their 5 match winning streak. Sneijder is important, but Maicon is essential. Gareth Bale and Rafa Benitez aside, not many have gotten the better of Maicon since he arrived at Inter.

Since Alvarez has become a regular starter and Maicon has returned to form, Inter have been playing a 4-4-2, rather than the 4-2-3-1 that Sneijder excelled in under Mourinho. Alvarez tends to create from the wide areas, but plays as the highest midfielder and makes runs down the left side-line or choses to cut to the inside. Also, Thiago Motta, Inter’s good luck charm, has taken full control of the holding midfielder role.

Probable Starting XI

Internazionale
Julio Cesar, Maicon, Lucio, Samuel, Nagatomo, Zanetti, Motta, Cambiasso, Sneijder, Pazzini, Milito

Wesley Sneijder has been training, but he has not played since November. Still, the Dutch superstar is likely to un-seat Ricky Alvarez, if Sneijder is indeed as fit as reports suggest. Stankovic may be fit in time for this match, but even if he is, he will likely take a seat on the bench. Diego Forlan is also likely fit enough for a seat on the bench. After last week’s performance, Diego Milito will earn the start.

AC Milan
Abbiati, Zambrotta, Nesta, Silva, Abate, Nocerino, Van Bommel, Boateng, Seedorf, Ibrahimovic, Robinho

Urby Emanuelson played well last week, but the San Siro classic is a match like no other. It’s the type of match where the atmosphere is such that a touch of experience can trump current form, so Seedorf may well provide the experience Allegri desires. Also, Seedorf has started all 3 derbies since Allegri took the reins. Both Seedorf and Abate returned to training this week and will be available for Milan. Aquliani is a doubt, but if he is healthy enough to play, he will likely play alongside Van Bommel and Nocerino, moving Boateng further up the pitch. Allegri has a strong squad (Yepes, Cassano, and Flamini remain long term casualties), and I suspect he will opt for Robinho to partner with Ibrahimovic. Pato hit the post and earned a penalty last week but will likely come in for a 2nd half appearance. Robinho provides fluidity alongside Ibra, something that Pato simply does not. Nocerino has been a pleasant surprise for Milan this season, and even if Gattuso is available, the fiery midfielder’s will likely grab a seat on the bench.

Noteworthy Quotes

"Inter has grown in recent times. We have respect for them but no fear…Out of all of them, we have to pay attention to Milito, who is a great player.” – Milan captain, Thiago Silva

"I remember all the derbies I've played in, they always give me great emotions.” – Aldo Serena who played for both Milan and Inter in the 1980s and 1990s.

Prediction and Expert Pick

AC Milan to win (2.16, +116)

Aside from having won the last 3 derbies under Allegri, AccuScore’s simulations calculated value in picking AC Milan to win, as 51.6% of simulations resulted in Milan winning, and Milan have 45% probability of winning based on the oddsmakers. AccuScore is 4-1 when projecting value in Milan winning on the season, so the trends advise making this pick. Ibrahimovic was far and away the most likely scorer at 46% followed by Robinho at 22%, and Kevin-Prince Boateng at 21%. Sneijder was most likely to score for Inter at 19%, followed by Milito at 18% and Pazzini at 18%.

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