Premier League Expert Analysis: Arsenal vs Liverpool

Arsenal vs Liverpool

 

On Friday night Premier League offers a truly legendary clash from North London, as Arsenal hosts Liverpool. Both English football behemoths have gone a long time without any true success, but are once again considered title challengers in the Premier League.

 

Arsenal, currently 5th in the Prem, are doing as expected under the reign of Arsene Wenger: not quite in the title race, but almost there. As usual, their season had been full of ups and downs including a comfortable win against the Spurs and then a collapse vs Watford, for example. They've done well at home, having won all but one game out of nine. In those nine games, Arsenal has scored 2.44 goals on average while conceding only 0.78.

 

Liverpool has shown some promise under Jürgen Klopp and seem to be heading in the right direction despite their lack of action in the transfer market. They are 4th in the Prem with 34 points in 18 games, one point ahead of their hosts Arsenal. Pool has played as well on the road as they have at home, collecting 17 points from both. However, against top teams Liverpool has struggled on the road. Manchester City demolished them 5-0 and Spurs 4-1. On the road Liverpool has been involved in overall high scoring games: on average 3.0 goals scored and 1.89 conceded.

 

The only encounter this season ended in Liverpool trashing Arsenal 4-0 on the 3rd round. Both teams should have their regular starters fit to go, only Arsenal’s Sead Kolesinac and Liverpool’s Daniel Sturridge likely out of the contest.

 

Accuscore’s Analysis

In Accuscore’s simulations the game is almost a flip of a three sided coin. Home team wins 35.2 % and road team 38.2 % of the simulations, while it'll finish in a tie with 26.6 % probability. The oddsmakers favor the home team slighly more than the simulations suggest.

 

With both teams possessing some quality firepower up front, we are likely to see more than average amount of goals. League leading goal scorer Mohamed Salah of Liverpool leads the pack with 42.6 % probability so score, followed closely by Arsenal's Alexandre Lacazette with 40.9 %. Overall 3.09 goals are scored in the simulations, with Liverpool hitting the net 1.57 times on average and Arsenal 1.52.

 

 Analyst Picks

 

Currently Liverpool is worth a punt, with 4.4 % value in road win. It might be worth to check out offers for draw no bet (or 0.0 handicap with some sportbooks), as the risk for a draw is quite high. More than evens (2.00) on Liverpool draw no bet will suffice.

 

For Salah or Lacazette to score the odds currently on offer are not high enough, but keep an eye out for everything better than 2.50 | +150 for either of the forwards to score.