Premier League Expert Analysis: Tottenham vs Arsenal
Top of the league matchup on Saturday sees Tottenham Hotspur host their London rivals Arsenal at Wembley. Spurs, currently 5th in the Premier League are still in contest for at least Champions League seeding in top-4, while Arsenal have found themselves outside of all continental football, hanging behind Spurs at 6th.
The roulette of January transfer window has now ran its course and Arsenal ended up losing Oliver Giroud and Alexis Sanchez, but gaining Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Henrikh Mkhitaryan. It yet remains to be seen if this was an overall improvement or not, but Arsene Wenger’s men made their case in an impressive 5-1 win over Everton last weekend. However, content Spurs is not an easy adversary. Even if Mauro Pochettino’s sole major signing in January was, currently injured, Lucas Moura from PSG, they’re more than ready to take on the challenge. If you don’t believe me, ask Jose Mourinho. His Manchester United went on to have a dismal visit at the Wembley to finish off January.
Spurs possibly had a bit of a luck in their last weekend’s effort at Anfield, with late late equalizer by Harry Kane. But especially at “home”, the Wembley, Spurs have been fantastic. They’ve only lost once in Premier League, back in August and have gone 12 games unbeaten since. They’ve gathered 28 points in 13 home games, which makes Spurs the 4th best home team in the League.
Always controversial Arsenal had their assets handed to them 3-1 by Swansea at the end of January, a beating they bounced back from by annihilating Everton 5-1. It goes to show for their inconsistency and you’ll never be sure what to expect. Acquisition of one of Europe’s top scorers Aubameyang was probably a right move, but losing Alexis Sanchez in the progress evens out the balances. The past games on the road have not been kind to Arsenal, with losses to Swansea and Bournemouth looming in the mirror. Arsenal is only 9th in Premier League on the road, with a measly 3 wins and 13 points in 13 games.
It’s impossible to look past the Spurs in this one. In Accuscore simulations the Spurs win with 57.3 % probability, indicating a huge edge over the current odds of 49 or so percentage. The game ends in a draw with 21.9 % likelihood, while Arsenal steals the points with 20.8 % chance.
Even with Spurs conceding only 9 goals in their 13 home games, it’s likely to be a high-scoring affair. In Accuscore simulations the hosts manage to score a hefty 2.31 goals on average, while visiting Arsenal scores 1.34 goals. The total goes up to 3.65 and the likeliest score is 3-1.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored on his debut against Everton and is the most likely player to score again for the Gunners. In simulations he finds the net with 40.7 % likelihood, way before the next in line Aaron Ramsey, who only scores with 14.32 % probability. The hosts’ best scorer Harry Kane is the king of the hill once again, scoring with 60.4 % probability.
While Aubameyang brings a lot of scoring threat to Arsenal’s offense, the January transfer window might’ve not improved the team as much as it might seem. While Spurs have not done better or worse, it’s still their game to win.
- Spurs to win, 57.3 % - take the home win with odds of 1.75 | -134 or better
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