Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Top NFL Betting Trends
• All NFL Picks Against the Spread (Regular Season + Playoffs) - 149-98-17, 60.3% +4120 profit
• 2017 NFL Playoffs: Against the Spread - 6-2, 75% +380
• 2017 NFL Playoffs Moneyline Picks: 7-1, 87.5%
All of AccuScore’s picks against the spread: AFC & NFC Championship picks vs the Spread/Totals
AFC Championship – Analyst’s Free Prop Bets
Sunday features a pair of matchups that are absolute must-watch games for any football fan, let alone someone looking for value on certain wagers. Make sure to check out our in-depth game analysis; if AccuScore has an ATS or ML pick, it's more than likely going to hit - just look at some of our numbers in the postseason so far.
Game picks aside, we took a look at three specific prop bets for the AFC Title game listed in Vegas books that seem to have some value.
Total Touchdowns - 5.5 (OVER pays -125, UNDER pays +105)
This is an interesting one because you'd think a game featuring QBs Tom Brady, Ben Roethlesberger can fairly easily combined for 6 TDs. The total for the game's set at 50.5, indicating the oddsmakers are siding with the OVER on the TD total of 5.5. New England will find the end zone, we're sure about that. Pittsburgh, though, put up 18 points against Kansas City last week, with no TDs.
AccuScore simulation data projects a final score lower that adds up to a total less than what's listed in Vegas, offering some value on the UNDER pick on TDs as well, paying out at +125. Brady averages 2.2 TDs per sim, with Big Ben at 1.5 per.
Total Field Goals - 3.5 (OVER pays +125, UNDER pays -145)
All 18 of Pittsburgh's points last week came by way of field goals, with Chris Boswell setting an NFL record for FGs in a single game (6). There were five total FGs in the Patriots-Texans matchup last week.
Trends for both teams suggest the OVER, but a simple eye test for the law of averages could suggest going the other way. With how much pride each defense takes in their red zone coverage, there's the most value on taking the OVER on this paying out at +125.
First Team to Score (Patriots pay out -150, Pittsburgh at +130)
The Patriots -- somewhat surprisingly -- have scored first in each of their past six games. As such, they're favored at -150 to strike first on the board this Sunday.
There's no way to predict this, but a look at the odds Vegas is offering suggest going with the favorites to start the game, and the Steelers to finish the game. Pittsburgh is listed at +105 to be the last team to score.