sustainable and I got two games wrong! There was a chance if you bet the Baltimore Ravens very early on in the week that you could have gotten a push with -3 but in all reality, most people bet that at -5 or worse so it is a pretty clear loss. I also somehow continue to bet on the New York Jets despite the fact that they are the New York Jets. Those two losses bring us to 24-16 for the year which is a pretty respectable pace and something I am semi-proud of.
As always, use this article as a reminder to keep tailing the SportsGrid betting model and #TrustTheProcess.
Davis Mattek NFL Sports Betting Record: 24-16 ATS
Week Fourteen NFL Sports Betting Picks
Seattle Seahawks +1
Every time the Rams have faced a real team, they have wilted. It was easy for Goff to go nuclear against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals but he did not throw a single touchdown pass in the month of November. This line is very similar to the line that the Seahawks had when they traveled to face the Philadelphia Eagles. Sure, the Seahawks have been a “lucky” team with turnovers and with their point differential but they also have Russell Wilson and one of the most experienced coaching staffs in the NFL. Even if Brian Schottenheimer is a league-average at best play-caller, he has Russell Wilson and the Rams do not. Just like the Eagles game, the Seahawks are a slight road dog against a team whose best football has not been played in over a year.
The Rams have fallen to 12th in the NFL in points scored, 10th in yards gained and their point differential marks them as a bang average team. The Seahawks are sixth in the NFL in points scored but they also have the advantage of having the QB who is sixth in the NFL in YPA and QBR whereas Jared Goff is 30th in QBR and 14th in YPA. This game will be closer than I am making it sound by just comparing quarterbacks because the Seahawks defense isn’t great, they are worse on the road and Goff isn’t quite as horrible as Twitter would have you believe but the Seahawks are simply a better team and should be favored by at least one point here.
Kansas City Chiefs +3
While the Patriots are always going to be amazing at beating bad teams, they have really struggled this year when faced against elite offenses. Both the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens basically had their way with New England and forced them to play off their back foot. The Patriots were a top-five offense last year when they had their showdowns against the Chiefs that ended with them winning another Super Bowl. This year, there is no Rob Gronkowski, no Josh Gordon and the Patriots are 22nd in the NFL in yards per play. Twenty. Second. Not a typo. Think about taking a team that is 22nd in the NFL in yards per play and making them a favorite against the Chiefs.
You can respect Bill Belichik and Tom Brady until the cows come home but the Chiefs are in a position to cover this spread. The Chiefs are third in the NFL in yards per play and Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in adjusted yards per pass attempt. Tom Brady is publicly complaining about his lack of trust in his wide receivers while the Chiefs are spoiled with choices between using Mecole Hardman, DeMarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle and Sammy Watkins along with mega-stud Tyreek Hill. If you believe that better offenses are more likely to win games than the Chiefs and the points is a line you want to take. I get that it feels bad to pick against the Patriots for a somewhat-struggling Chiefs team but it is the right thing to do.
New Orleans Saints -2.5 (And -3)
Sports betting is very hard and many people have tried to become great at it and never gotten there. I would never claim to be a genius at sports betting but basically the top principle that guides me in the bets that I feel go well (as in, they were the right side before the game started) is that an elite offense is better than elite defense. The Saints season-long numbers are skewed because Drew Brees missed five games but in games that Brees has played, they have averaged 7.7 yards per pass play and scored over 30 points against Houston, Tampa Bay, and Arizona. The 49ers offense has been better than preseason projections but Jimmy G has only topped 300 passing yards twice and both of those games were against the fraudulent Arizona Cardinals defense.
I really hate to go #NoData but this one should be pretty simple: do we think that a 49ers team whose signature win this year is dunking on an over-the-hill Aaron Rodgers should be within 3 points of the New Orleans Saints at home? I, personally, do not. Jimmy’s record in shootout games is mixed at best and we have seen a slew of would-be contenders come to New Orleans and get run out of the building by the intelligent and well-coach New Orleans Saints offense. Until the 49ers prove their mettle, this is an easy bet.
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