Written by Max Meyer

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The AccuScore computer has picks against the spread and on totals for the National Championship game between ‘Bama and the Fighting Irish. Join Now using the code ann150 and get an annual membership for 50% off…that means you will get access to picks for this season’s National Championship game and all of next season’s college football regular and post season. On top of that, you’ll also get access to the 2013 NFL playoffs and 2013 NFL regular season. Add in NHL, NBA, and MLB and this is the best deal anywhere right now. However, this deal won’t last past tonight’s game, so get it today!

National Championship: Notre Dame vs Alabama Preview

Key Match-up: Alabama’s Offensive Line vs. Notre Dame’s Front Seven

Alabama’s offensive line is the most complete unit in the country. It is also the major reason for the Crimson Tide’s success on offense. They have two stars that should be selected in the first round of the upcoming NFL Draft: guard Chance Warmack and center Barrett Jones. While this line is very strong at protecting the quarterback, they are exceptional at run blocking. Alabama gashed Georgia’s defense for 350 rushing yards in the SEC Championship game and had two running backs (Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon) go for over 100 rushing yards.

Notre Dame’s front seven, however, will definitely give them a challenge. The Irish defense has only given up two rushing touchdowns the entire season. Led by Heisman finalist Manti Te’o, Notre Dame’s front has a unique combination of size and speed. This especially helps in the red zone, as the Irish have been historically good at preventing opponents from scoring touchdowns inside the 20.

Alabama coach Nick Saban will call run plays throughout the entire game because that is the bread-and-butter of his offense. If Notre Dame has any chance of winning this game, they will need to stop the Tide’s rushing attack. What the Irish want is for Alabama quarterback A.J. McCarron to have to make more big plays than he has had to in the regular season.

Key Player for Notre Dame: Tyler Eifert

The 6’6”, 250-pound tight end is a match-up nightmare for the Tide. He is too big for cornerbacks to cover, and too quick for linebackers. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Eifert is giving Saban nightmares. His ability to line up tight on the line or outside as a receiver makes him an extremely versatile target.

Eifert has 44 catches for 624 yards and four touchdowns this season, but the numbers don’t fully explain his impact. He’s drawn several pass interference flags throughout the season. The fact that defenses have to focus on him every single play frees up other Notre Dame weapons to make plays.

AccuScore simulations are projecting a subpar game from Eifert, with an average of only 3.8 catches and 44.8 yards. However, since Eifert has gone over those totals this season eight and seven times respectively, I think he will have a bigger game than AccuScore expects. Eifert is the most important player on offense for the Irish, and his performance in this game will show why.

Key Player for Alabama: AJ McCarron

McCarron will have to make plays in this game in order for the Tide to win. However, he hasn’t played well against top competition of late. In his last three games against ranked opponents (LSU, Texas A&M and Georgia), McCarron has thrown only three touchdowns to three interceptions (his only picks this season). The results for Alabama: four point wins against LSU and Georgia, and a five point loss to A&M. Notre Dame’s defense will certainly give McCarron a big test, but quite frankly, I think he’s going to have a solid game. AccuScore projects McCarron to have a good game with a 145.2 passer rating along with 1.5 touchdowns versus 0.8 interceptions. Saban will have had over a month to help McCarron prepare for the Irish, which should give McCarron an advantage. McCarron did perform well in last year’s championship game against LSU. However, the key factor is whether or not Alabama’s run offense can get going against Notre Dame. If Lacy and Yeldon aren’t running the football effectively, McCarron will have a much tougher time.

Prediction

Alabama is favored by 9.5 points over Notre Dame in the BCS Championship. AccuScore simulations project Alabama to win the game 80.9 percent of the time, while covering the spread at a 58.3 percent clip. However, I think people are overhyping Alabama a little bit. This team isn’t as good as last year’s squad, and in fact it may be the worst Alabama team in the past five years. Notre Dame will give Alabama all it can handle with their fantastic front seven. However, the difference to me is in the quarterback play. I trust McCarron more than Irish quarterback Everett Golson. McCarron is the better game manager, and he responds to pressure well. I think Alabama will prevail in a much closer game than most people expect.

Alabama 20, Notre Dame 17