Written by Rohit Ghosh
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2018 NFL Playoffs: Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints - Divisional Round Analyst Pick
Our NFL Expert made two picks for Wildcard Weekend and got both right: Panthers +7 and Falcons +6.5...scroll to the bottom for his Analyst Pick for the Divisional Round...
The Minnesota Vikings very well could end up with a dream-like season if they ultimately advance to the Super Bowl being played in their home stadium. To get there, though, they'll have to get past the New Orleans Saints this weekend.
Let's take a closer look at the matchup and where the value is.
Vegas Odds
Minnesota opened as 3.5-point favorites before shooting up to -5 in some books. The spread has settled at -4.5 in most books. The total opened at 45 before settling in about a point higher.
Betting Line: Minnesota Vikings -4.5
Total: 46.5
At the time of publication, 57 percent of the public was taking the points and taking the Saints.
61 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.
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AccuScore Betting Trends: Wild Card Weekend
• Against the Spread: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +790 profit)
• Over/Under Picks: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +1800 profit)
...All of AccuScore's NFL 2018 Playoffs Picks: NFL Playoffs Picks
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Betting Trends
• Minnesota is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 5 games at home.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games.
• New Orleans is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games.
What to Watch For
QB Play: Case Keenum will start in his first playoff game this weekend, and playing in front of a home crowd should help to calm any added nerves. He threw for eight TDs and just two INTs in seven homes games this season. On the other side, we've got Drew Brees who went 4-4 straight up (SU) and ATS this season on the road; Brees is 1-4 SU in his career on the road, throwing for eight TDs and five INTs.
Keenum is projected to finish with 261 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Brees is projected to finish with 282 passing yards, 2+ TDs and 1 INT.
Weapons: In last week's matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Saints, a couple of Brees' weapons stood out. Wide receiver Michael Thomas came up huge late in the game, finishing with eight catches for 131 yards. WR Ted Ginn Jr. was clutch in the final quarter of play, finishing with 115 yards and 1 TD on four catches.
Thomas is projected to finish with 69 yards on seven receptions; Ginn is projected to finish with 49 yards on four receptions.
Analyst's Pick
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