• 2017 NFL Playoff Projections: Week 6

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    Week 6: NFL Injuries Minor in Impact for Playoffs

    Week 5 was devastating for the New York Giants and Houston Texans. They both lost key players, when Texans JJ Watt and Giants Odell Beckham jr fractured legs and are out for the season. In addition to this, the Texans defense got another hit when Whitney Mercilus faced season ending injury as well as Giants receiving corps were torn apart with season ending injuries to Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Harris. What kind of impact there is to these teams' playoffs hopes?

    Based on Accuscore’s season simulations with current rosters, Houston has around 8% probability to reach playoffs and their average record at the end of the season is 7-9. If we run simulations with JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus, their chances are not improving dramatically. The probability to reach playoffs is basically same as well as the preseason predicted record at the end of the season.

    Simulations rely on historical data and it was a game three when JJ Watt injured year ago. The end result for the Texans that season was a playoff place, and they were able to pull wild card victory during postseason. At the end, it may be that JJ Watt’s impact on Texans performance is more mental than physical.

    Top Trends: After Week 5

    - All NFL Picks vs the Spread: 43-30-4, 58.9% +1,000
    - All Side Value Picks: 44-31, 58.7% +1800
    - All Totals Picks: 44-29-4, 60.3% +1210

    All of AccuScore's Week 6 NFL Picks

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    New York Giants’ chances to playoffs are next to nothing after an 0-5 start and injuries to their star receivers. We predict that the Giants' probability to reach playoffs at the end of the season is under 1%. Based on same simulations they'll end the season with a 4-12 record. If the team has recorded only losses during first five weeks of the season with their best roster, there is not much that can go more wrong.

    With Beckham and Marshall, the Giants’ playoffs probability only pop up to 2% and they would get one additional win compared to the current forecast. Even though it looks like the final blows to the Giants' season, the 2017 campaign was already lost with the 0-5 start when everyone was healthy.

    And then Adrian Peterson…in Arizona

    The Arizona Cardinals acquired running back Adrian Peterson from the New Orleans Saints, where the former Minnesota Viking running back had been trying to get some carries during first games of the season. Accuscore simulated AP's impact to Arizona’s playoff chances.

    Arizona currently sits on a 2-3 record thanks to two wins in overtime. Their game plan hasn’t been working very well, and before they traded their chances to the postseason away, were around 30% with the record of 8-8. These simulations were run with the tandem Chris Johnson and Kerwynn Williams carrying the main load of their running game.

    When we replace Johnson with Peterson and make him featured back like he was during his heydays in Minnesota, the Cardinals' chances to reach the playoffs drop to 18%. Based on these simulations the 8-win season might be a stretch and it looks more like 7-9 that they'll finish up with. As simulations are using historical data and not the highlight videos years ago to determine outcomes of the games, it is quite clear that based on the performance during last and this season, Adrian Peterson's impact is not positive. His star is fading away and a substandard offensive line cannot light it up anymore.

  • NFL Sunday: Week 6 Analyst Pick - Ravens vs Bears

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears: Analyst Pick

    The Baltimore Ravens will look to build on their 30-17 road win last week over Oakland as they host the Chicago Bears Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium. All signs point to a fairly dominant home victory for the Ravens, considering the Bears are 0-10 overall and 2-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 road games going back to last season.

    Spread: Chicago Bears +6.5 (-110), Baltimore Ravens -6.5 (-110)
    Total: OVER 38.5 (-110), UNDER 38.5 (-110)

    Vegas Odds

    The line opened at -7 for Baltimore and really hasn't seen a whole lot of movement from that line. Most books have it at -6.5 right now, with a few listing it at -6.

    The total, though, has seen a bit more movement, dropping 3 points to 38.5 since opening at 41.5.

    Chicago might be 1-4 on the season, but they're 3-2 ATS -- and the public is projected to be all over them as the Mitch Trubisky era gets underway.

    Top AccuScore Trends: After Week 5
    - All NFL Picks vs the Spread: 43-30-4, 58.9% +1,000
    - All Side Value Picks: 44-31, 58.7% +1800
    - All Totals Picks: 44-29-4, 60.3% +1210
    All NFL Spread, Totals & Side Value Picks: +4010 profit!

    All of AccuScore's Week 6 NFL Picks

    Betting Trends
    • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bears' last five games.
    • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Ravens' last six games.
    • The Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at home.
    • The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.

    What to Watch For

    Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is coming off his best game of the season as he completed over 73 percent of his passes in the victory over the Raiders. Zero INTs was a nice change in momentum since he had six INTs through the first four weeks.

    Flacco is projected to finish with 272 yards and 1 TD. He has nearly three times the probability of throwing a TD vs an INT.

    Bears QB Mitch Trubisky had an average performance in his first game last week, showing some flashes of potential, but finishing with just 128 passing yards. Still, the Bears were competitive against Minnesota in the 20-17 loss.

    Trubisky is projected to finish with 190 pasing yards, averaging 0.8 TDs per sim vs 0.5 INTs per sim.

    Analyst's Pick
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