Free Analyst Pick: Chiefs vs Redskins on MNF

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Monday Night Football: Chiefs vs Redskins - Analyst Pick

We've got a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend alert in this Monday night's matchup at Arrowhead Stadium between the Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs opened as 9-point favorites before settling down at 7 Sunday afternoon. The total's stayed consistent at 49 or 49.5.

AccuScore’s Full MNF Forecast & Picks

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore SIm Data

One thing's for sure -- the Chiefs are fairly heavy favorites. Vegas odds have the Chiefs getting -340 odds on the money line, indicating a 77.27 percent chance of winning. Kansas City wins 77.3. percent of simulated matchups, on par with the probabilities suggested by Vegas odds.

The spread's where the value is at in this matchup. The sim data actually has the home side favored by 10 points, indicating a whole lot of value on the 7-point spread.

The Chiefs cover a 7-point spread in 55.4 percent of simulations, a four-star AccuScore hot trend. The 55.4 percent probability would have had the odds at -125, showing the value on the -110 most books are offering for the 7-point spread.

AccuScore Betting Trends
• All Totals Picks: 35-23-4, 60.3% +970
• All Picks Against the Spread: 33-26-3 55.9% +440
• All Side Value Picks: 32-38, +614
• All Side Value, Spread & Totals Picks: +2024 profit

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Top Non-AccuScore Betting Trends
• The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games.
• The Chiefs are 5-1 straight up (SU) in their last 6 games.
• The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a SU win.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Chiefs' last 6 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 17 of the Redskins' last 24 games.

What to Watch For

Washington QB Kirk Cousins was magnificent in last week's victory with 365 passing yards and three TDs, completing 25 of his 30 attempts.

He's projected to finish Monday night's game with 298 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. In the 22 percent of simulated matchups in which the Redskins win, Cousins averages 2.12 TDs to 0.44 INTs; in the losses, he's at 1.62 TDs to 0.82 INTs.

Free Analyst's Pick

The favorite between these two sides has covered ATS in four of the last five meetings, and the total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings.

We'll go with the Chiefs covering, and the OVER. Safe play might be to buy a half-point on the 7-point spread to make it 6.5.

NFL MNF: Falcons at Buccaneers - Analyst Preview & Picks

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

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NFL Monday Night Picks: Falcons vs Bucs

Week 15 in the NFL wraps up Monday night in Tampa Bay as the Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons in a matchup that's projecting to be fairly high-scoring, with only one other game on the week's slate having a higher total listed in Vegas (Patriots-Steelers with a total set at 54.5).

Vegas Odds

The Falcons opened up at 4-point favorites before some heavy public action pushed it up to -6.5 in most books; the total creeped up from 47.5 to 49.

Betting Line: Atlanta Falcons -6.5
Total: 49

At the time of publication, 65 percent of the public were laying the points and taking the Falcons.

63-plus percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

Betting Trends

- The Falcons are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games.
The Falcons are 6-2 straight up (SU) in their last eight road games.
-The total has gone OVER in six of the Falcons' last nine games vs the Bucs.

What to Watch For

NFC South: The fate of the NFC South is yet to be decided with three teams still having a chance at the playoffs. The Falcons, heading into the matchup having won four of their last five, will treat this as a must-win. Tevin Coleman suffered a concussion last week and he's the only big-name player that'll be potentially out Monday night. QB Matt Ryan finished with 221 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs in last week's 20-17 win over New Orleans.

Ryan is projected to finish this week's matchup with 284 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

Struggling Buccaneers: Tampa Bay has dropped three straight heading into this matchup. They've been a major disappointment this year after a nine-win season last year. In Jameis Winston's 42 career games, he has turned the ball over 53 times – second-most in the league since his 2015 rookie season.

Winston is projected to finish with 267 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

Analyst's Pick
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NFL Monday Eagles vs Redskins - Analyst Preview/Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

NFL Monday Night Week 7: Eagles vs Redskins

The Philadelphia Eagles might not have been a popular pick to make a deep postseason run, but they've managed to start the season 5-1 heading into Week 7's Monday Night Football (MNF) matchup against the Washington Redskins. We've got an NFC East battle to wrap up this week's slate of games.

Vegas Odds
The total has stayed consistent at 48.5 since the line opened, but the spread has dropped from -6 to -4.5 for Philly.

Betting Line: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
Total: 48.5

Top AccuScore Trends: After Week 7 (before MNF)
- All NFL Picks vs the Spread: 57-41-7 58.9% +1,190
- All Side Value Picks: 58-44 +2527
- All Totals Picks: 52-42-6 +1080
All NFL Spread, Totals & Side Value Picks: +4797 profit!

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All of AccuScore's NFL Picks

Key Betting Trends
-Washington is 12-3-1 straight up (SU) and 13-3 against the spread (ATS) in its last 16 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less.
-Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games on the road.

What to Watch For
Last week Redskins QB Kirk Cousins completed 25 of 37 passes for 330 yards, two TDs, and a pick in a 26-24 win over the San Francisco 49ers. He added 26 yards and a TD on four carries. It was actually the second time in three games that he has was directly responsible for three TDs. More importantly, he has recorded a QB rating of 95 or higher in four consecutive games after struggling in Week 1 against the Eagles.

Cousins is projected to finish Monday night's game with 277 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, along with 10 rushing yards on 2 carries.

On the other side, Eagles QB Carson Wentz is also coming off a game where he finished with 3 TDs, as Philly held off Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers, 28-23.

Wentz is projected to finish with 276 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, along with 13 rushing yards on 3 carries.

Analyst's Pick
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