• 2017 NFL Playoff Projections: Week 6

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    Week 6: NFL Injuries Minor in Impact for Playoffs

    Week 5 was devastating for the New York Giants and Houston Texans. They both lost key players, when Texans JJ Watt and Giants Odell Beckham jr fractured legs and are out for the season. In addition to this, the Texans defense got another hit when Whitney Mercilus faced season ending injury as well as Giants receiving corps were torn apart with season ending injuries to Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Harris. What kind of impact there is to these teams' playoffs hopes?

    Based on Accuscore’s season simulations with current rosters, Houston has around 8% probability to reach playoffs and their average record at the end of the season is 7-9. If we run simulations with JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus, their chances are not improving dramatically. The probability to reach playoffs is basically same as well as the preseason predicted record at the end of the season.

    Simulations rely on historical data and it was a game three when JJ Watt injured year ago. The end result for the Texans that season was a playoff place, and they were able to pull wild card victory during postseason. At the end, it may be that JJ Watt’s impact on Texans performance is more mental than physical.

    Top Trends: After Week 5

    - All NFL Picks vs the Spread: 43-30-4, 58.9% +1,000
    - All Side Value Picks: 44-31, 58.7% +1800
    - All Totals Picks: 44-29-4, 60.3% +1210

    All of AccuScore's Week 6 NFL Picks

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    New York Giants’ chances to playoffs are next to nothing after an 0-5 start and injuries to their star receivers. We predict that the Giants' probability to reach playoffs at the end of the season is under 1%. Based on same simulations they'll end the season with a 4-12 record. If the team has recorded only losses during first five weeks of the season with their best roster, there is not much that can go more wrong.

    With Beckham and Marshall, the Giants’ playoffs probability only pop up to 2% and they would get one additional win compared to the current forecast. Even though it looks like the final blows to the Giants' season, the 2017 campaign was already lost with the 0-5 start when everyone was healthy.

    And then Adrian Peterson…in Arizona

    The Arizona Cardinals acquired running back Adrian Peterson from the New Orleans Saints, where the former Minnesota Viking running back had been trying to get some carries during first games of the season. Accuscore simulated AP's impact to Arizona’s playoff chances.

    Arizona currently sits on a 2-3 record thanks to two wins in overtime. Their game plan hasn’t been working very well, and before they traded their chances to the postseason away, were around 30% with the record of 8-8. These simulations were run with the tandem Chris Johnson and Kerwynn Williams carrying the main load of their running game.

    When we replace Johnson with Peterson and make him featured back like he was during his heydays in Minnesota, the Cardinals' chances to reach the playoffs drop to 18%. Based on these simulations the 8-win season might be a stretch and it looks more like 7-9 that they'll finish up with. As simulations are using historical data and not the highlight videos years ago to determine outcomes of the games, it is quite clear that based on the performance during last and this season, Adrian Peterson's impact is not positive. His star is fading away and a substandard offensive line cannot light it up anymore.

  • NFC East: 2017 NFL Previews

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    NFC East: 2017 NFL Division Previews

    AccuScore is previewing ever NFL division ahead of the 2017 regular season, with every team in each division getting a detailed preview and projections, along with fantasy tips. For the NFC East division preview, AccuScore previews the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles below:

    2017 NFC North Projections and Preview

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    Other Previews:
    NFC North Division Preview
    NFC South Division Preview

    Dallas Hoping Sophomores Don’t Slump

    Projected Wins: 10.4
    Division Rank: 1

    The Dallas Cowboys surprised many experts during last season, as Jerry Jones’ men rode two rookies and a strong offensive line to the best record in the NFC: Thirteen wins. But the playoff run ended quickly in divisional game against the streaking Green Bay Packers.

    For the 2017 season, Accuscore simulated every game of the upcoming season 10,000 times to project win/loss records, and Dallas projects to repeat as NFC East champions, even with Ezekiel Elliott suspended for six games. This time, simulations show 10 wins for Dallas, but that’s still good enough to finish top of the division pile, though the Packers and Seahawks project to finish with a better record in the conference. Based on these numbers, Cowboys would reach playoffs this time with 76% probability.

    During the last season Dallas’ defense wasn’t anything close to great. In 13 wins they managed to keep only Cleveland at or below 10 points. More than likely, the offense will need to replicate numbers from a year ago, when the Cowboys scored at least 24 points in all but one win.

    Roster Moves

    The biggest changes in Dallas are in secondary. Brandon Carr, Barry Church and Morris Claiborne took off, and Nolan Carroll from Philadelphia signed to replace at least part of the hole left behind. Otherwise, Dallas continues more or less with the offensively dependent team that produced 13 wins. However, there are two big questions hovering around Dallas. Will Dak Prescott keep improving and step up as franchise quarterback after Tony Romo retired? How will Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension affect the team? If these key players can perform, Dallas should hit double digit win and earn the right to play in the postseason yet again.

    Fantasy Analysis: Dallas Cowboys

    Usual suspects are on the list when we think best bets for your fantasy team. Elliott would be second of the running back list if he got the full six games, but he will likely be a monster after coming back from suspension. QB Dak Prescott is among top 8 quarterbacks based on Accuscore’s fantasy predictions. Also TE Jason Witten is among top 10 tight-ends and WR Dez Bryant is knocking on the door of top 10 wide receivers. With Elliott out, Prescott could be even more pass happy than usual.

    New York Giants’ window of opportunity

    Projected Wins: 9.9
    Division Rank: 2

    New York Giants head coach Ben McAdoo did better than expected during his rookie season. They went clearly over Vegas line of 8 wins when the team managed to win 11 games before losing to the same streaking Green Bay in the wild card round of the playoffs. And considering the Giants are projected for 10 wins and a 67.5% chance at the playoffs, the expectations have been raised from a season ago when Vegas had the Giants’ win-total line at 8.0.

    The Giants’ chances to win NFC East division are around 38%, but the projected difference between the Giants and the Cowboys is only half a game. Eli Manning project to take this division race down to the wire.

    Roster Moves

    Offseason moves were quite limited in New York. The high profile free agent signing was receiver Brandon Marshall that moved from local competitor, NY Jets, to the Giants. He would provide additional weapon for 36 year old Eli Manning that hopes to engineer a third trip to the Super Bowl. The Giants will be the fifth team of Marshall’s career. On the defensive line, starter Jonathan Hankins departed to Indianapolis, which adds more of a load on Damon Harrison at DT.

    Fantasy Analysis: Dallas Cowboys

    For fantasy players Giant’s WR tandem of Beckham and Marshall generate a lot interest. Beckham will be top3 WR based on Accuscore fantasy predictions and clearly number one receiver to produce a high amount of fantasy point week after week. Marshall is a bit on decline in his career, but can still be top 20 receiver in this league. It looks like he would give more value in many leagues compared to Beckham.

    QB Eli Manning is ranked to 17th when all predicted fantasy points during the season have been summed up. As the running back situation is a bit open, there is no reason to spend draft slots on Giants running back in early rounds.

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    Washington continues without step forward

    Projected Wins: 7.5
    Division Rank: 3

    Washington’s chances to win NFC East are around 6% as Dallas and NY Giants are ahead of Redskins in many areas. However, their chances to reach playoffs are a bit over 20%. Last season was a small step backwards for the Washington Redskins. A freak tie led to eight wins, which was effectively 8.5 wins behind the nine win the team claimed in 2015. The Redskins missed out on the playoffs, and Accuscore predicts the Redskins will win between seven and eight games, and that likely would not be good enough for a wildcard berth.

    Washington needs to get off to a fast start with games against the wounded Eagles in Week 1 and a trip to the rebuilding Rams in Week 2. Washington has the toughest schedule among NFC teams, highlighted by tough non-division road trips to Seattle in Week 9, New Orleans in Week 11 and Kansas City in Week 4.

    Roster Moves

    The most notable changes in roster take place in receiver corps. Both starting WRs Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson took off from the nation’s capital. As a response, the Redskins signed Terrelle Pryor to be their no. 1 receiver.

    Fantasy Analysis: Dallas Cowboys

    When reviewing fantasy predictions, Pryor could be one of the top value players among WR. Accuscore’s season fantasy prediction lists him as number seven when all fantasy points are calculated. Tight end Jordan Reed is projected to be an early favorite to collect the most fantasy points among all TEs. His performance has been great, and we don’t have any reason to expect drops. Franchise tagged Kirk Cousins is a top 10 fantasy quarterback in the league but is a couple levels below the likes of Rodgers, Brees and Brady in fantasy.

    Too tough division for Eagles

    Projected Wins: 5.9
    Division Rank: 4

    The second pick of the 2016 draft, QB Carson Wentz had a reasonably good rookie season in the helm of Philadelphia Eagles offense. It cannot be compared to Dallas’ Dak Prescott, but he was performing better than no. 1 pick Jared Goff. Unfortunately for Wentz, he's in a tough division. The NFC East has two clearly better teams in the Cowboys and the Giants. Even though the Eagles made some good additions to the offense, simulations predict only 6 wins for Philadelphia. That would be one less than year ago. Based on Accuscore’s predictions, the Eagles will have 5% chances to playoffs. To win the division, they need a minor miracle, as the current probability win the division is around 2%.

    In games that the Eagles lost a season ago, they gave up at least 24 points to opponents. Comparatively, games the Eagles won only saw them give up 12 points on average.

    Roster Moves

    Philadelphia added running back LeGarrette Blount from the Patriots to bolster their running attack. There have been numerous examples of players exceling under Bill Belichick and not quite replicating the same output elsewhere. It will be interesting to see how Blount performs in Philadelphia. There are two high profile additions to wide receivers: Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. This gives more tools to QB Wentz and will improve the offense quite a bit. All three players should gain from each other’s presence. There weren’t any significant additions to the defense through free agency, but the Eagles spent their first three picks in the draft on defense. That should pay off for years to come.

    Fantasy Analysis: Dallas Cowboys

    Fantasy projections rank QB Wentz to number 24, RB Blount to number 22 and best WR Jeffery to number 30 among all players in their respective positions. These guys can be considered sleepers, but it won’t make too much sense to build the core of your fantasy team with these guys. Based on Accuscore’s fantasy predictions Eagles defense is ranked at fourth from the bottom.

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  • NFL MNF: Week 2 - Giants vs Lions Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    All of AccuScore’s NFL Monday Night Football Picks

    Monday Night Football: Giants vs Lions

    It's Week 2 and we're back to a normal weekly slate of games which means only one MNF matchup from now on -- this version featuring the Detroit Lions and New York Giants.

    The Giants are a 3-point favorite after opening as 4.5-point favorites. The total's settled at 42 after opening at 43.5.

    What to Watch For

    New York's defense actually had a strong performance against Dallas in Week 1. They put pressure on a mobile QB and get to face a much less-frustrating QB in that manner in Week 2.

    The Giants held the Cowboys to about 5.5 yards per play in Week 1; Dallas averaged 6 yards per play last season.

    AccuScore NFL Betting Trends:

    • Against the Spread Picks: 18-11-1, +590
    • Totals Picks: 19-8-3, +1020
    • Moneyline Picks: 21-9, +263
    • Side Value Picks: 18-11, +695
    • ALL AccuScore Picks - Profit: +2,568

    Non-AccuScore Betting Trends

    • The Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC East.
    • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Lions’ last 12 games.
    • The Giants are 2-5 SU in their last seven games at night.

    Analyst's Pick

    Four-star (out of four) hot trend alert against the spread: Need we say any more?

    Note: Our analyst is 3-1 in his NFL analyst picks this season with a total profit of +222 units, assuming 100 unit wager on each pick...

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  • NFL Sunday: New York Giants vs LA Rams - Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    New York Giants vs LA Rams: Analyst Preview & Pick

    The New York Giants (1-6) host the Los Angeles Rams (5-2) at MetLife Stadium as the offense finally gets some good news with the return of of WR Sterling Shepard. The Rams have been firing on all cylinders this season, but are 0-7 in their last seven matchups against the Giants.

    Vegas Odds
    This game saw a good amount of action earlier in the week, with the public already moving the spread and total. The Rams opened as 3-to-3.5-point favorites, but the spread quickly moved up to -4.5.

    Spread Odds: Los Angeles Rams -4.5
    Total Line: 42

    At the time of publication, about 66 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Rams. 61 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.

    Betting Trends
    -The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Rams' last 21 games on the road.
    -The Rams are 0-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last five games against the Giants.
    -The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road against the Giants.

    What to Watch For

    Top AccuScore Trends: Week 9
    - All NFL Picks vs the Spread: 64-47-8 +1,240
    - All Side Value Picks: 64-51 +2160
    - All Totals Picks: 65-48-6 +1220
    All NFL Spread, Totals & Side Value Picks: +4620 profit!

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    AccuScore has picks for all of Sunday's games, including a free forecast with projections and picks:
    All of AccuScore's NFL Picks

    Giants QB Eli Manning has struggled all year, but it's tough to put all the blame on him given the injuries to his weapons. Still, the boo birds have been flying all season, some critics even pushing for his retirement. His numbers, though, have been about average compared to other QBs -- passing for 1600 yards, 10 TDs and 5 INTs heading into this week's matchup. Last week against the Seattle Seahawks Manning passed for 139 yards, completing 19 of 39 pass attempts, and 1 TD in a 24-7 loss.

    Manning is projected to finish Sunday's game with 264 passing yards and 1 TD. He averages twice has many TDs per sim -- 1.3 -- as he does INTs -- 0.6.

    On the opposite side of the 1-6 Giants, we've got a 5-2 Rams team that's been seemingly improving on a weekly basis. The team's only glaring weakness has been defending against the run, giving up 123 rushing yards per game.

    NY running backs Paul Perkins, Orleans Darkwa, and Shane Vereen are projected to finish with a combined 109.3 yards and 1 TD against the Rams.

    Analyst's Pick
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    {plus} Analyst Pick:: Giants cover at home -- and have potential for a money line pick too.

    The Rams are 0-5 ATS vs teams with a losing record; the Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs a team with a winning road record.{/pluis}