• NBA Finals 2018: Warriors HEAVY Favorites

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    2018 NBA Finals: Predictions

    A year ago, AccuScore said the Golden State Warriors would win in five games and that’s exactly what happened.

    With the NBA Finals tipping-off on Thursday, AccuScore again employed its simulation engine to figure out the chances for each team to win and calculate out what the most likely outcome would be. Well, the Golden State Warriors are an absurd 88.6% to win the series with a 21.6% chance of sweeping the Cavaliers.

    Yes, this is a mismatch and far more of a mismatch than the Warriors versus the Rockets was projected to be and eventually turned out to be. Even with LeBron James playing as an all-time great, the Warriors’ array of superstars is far too much for one man to carry a team across the finish line.

    The most likely outcome in the 2018 NBA Finals is a Cavaliers’ victory in five games, 24.4%, or six games, 26.8%. On the flip side, the Cavs’ best odds of a series win comes in seven games at 4.1%, meaning Cleveland winning the series would be a massive upset.

    Game 1 Expert Picks: Spreads/Totals/Player Props

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    Without LeBron
    To highlight the importance of LeBron James, our computer also ran the simulations without James to determine the impact a player of his caliber would have on the series. If LeBron wasn’t on the Cavaliers, the Warriors’ likelihood jumps to 95.4% with the most likely outcome a sweep at 32.3%. Without James, the Cavs’ chances of winning are in less than half.

    Without Steph Curry
    If James is playing and Stephen Curry was to sit out the series, Golden State is still the favorite because of Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, but the Warriors’ odds of winning drop dramatically to 68.7% with the series projected to extend to six or seven games. The Cavs are still not likely to win the series, but the prospects are far more realistic without Curry on the court draining three-pointers.

    Conclusion

    Of course, both LeBron and Steph are playing, so the Cavs are facing long odds. To put the reality of the discrepancy into focus, the Warriors are almost two times more likely to sweep the Cavaliers than Cleveland is to win the series—and that’s with LeBron healthy. More than 50% of simulations have the Warriors winning in either five or six games, with the series going six games edging out a repeat of 2017’s five-game “gentleman’s sweep.”

  • NBA Playoffs 2017: Warriors to Win

    Written by Rohit Ghosh

    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NBA Playoffs: AccuScore Picking Warriors To Win it All

    The NBA Playoffs are here - finally. The first round of the playoffs is easily one of the most entertaining two-to-three weeks of hoops all year with multiple series tipping off this Saturday. Let's take a look at some key points to watch for.

    Not an AccuScore member? This is a great time to join. The computer is known to get hot for the playoffs after a full season of data under its belt. Join now using the coupon code NBA20 and get 20% off membership (monthly or annual)… Join Today!

    Below the Radar, but Very Important

    In the Western Conference, the 4-5 matchup between the Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz is easily one of the least discussed, but most intriguing. The winner of this matchup will end up playing the Golden State Warriors in the second round of the postseason. It's a loss either way.

    What's interesting, though, is that both Utah and L.A. have potentially volatile offseasons coming up. Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Gordon Hayward - all free agents this offseason. A long(er) postseason run should allow for easier decisions in the offseason, right?

    Against the Spread & Totals: AccuScore’s NBA Playoffs Picks

    Will Cleveland walk through the East?

    Although the last six years indicate LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers will once again reach the NBA Finals, a first-round matchup with Indiana along with AccuScore sim data suggests the path to repeating just might not be so easy.

    Indiana isn't the scariest of threats in the first round, but their talent on the wing with Paul George and athleticism in the middle with Myles Turner should prove to at least provide the fans with some competitive moments. Here's the thing - the Cavs can sweet the Pacers when playing their best ball.

    The problem, though, is that we haven't seen that level of execution from Cleveland in quite some time now. Can the second week of April flip the proverbial switch for Cleveland?

    First Round to Win it All

    Given how ridiculous this season's MVP race has been, why not have it decided on who wins the first-round matchup between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder?

    In that sort of a set-up, AccuScore sim data would give the award to Harden as the Rockets are heavy favorites to win the series, majority of outcomes being decided in six or seven games.

    Keep an eye out for prop bet opportunities though in this series, with the lean on the OVER for any total -- individual or team.

    Best Bets / Value Picks

    In the often predictable NBA offseason, where's the value?

    After thousands of simulations, AccuScore sim data leans much more heavily towards the Toronto Raptors winning the Eastern Conference than indicated by Vegas odds.

    Toronto upsets Cleveland in the conference semis --- more than likely in 6 games -- to face the Warriors in the NBA Finals.

    At 30:1 odds, Toronto in the weaker East offers even more intrinsic value than any team in the West since very few consider the Rockets or Clippers to be 'true' title contenders compared to the Warriors or Spurs.

    They added forward Serge Ibaka in the offseason for this exact sort of a run. The Cavs are struggling as a whole, and specifically, have had issues with depth all season.

    With all that said, the Golden State Warriors are heavy 88.4 percent favorites over the Raptors in the NBA Finals.

    NBA Playoffs 2017 Odds

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  • Warriors Over Rockets in Western Conference Finals

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    Western Conference Finals: Warriors Heavy Favorites

    The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors kick off the Western Conference Finals on Monday, and many people consider this series effectively the NBA championship. Well, AccuScore’s computer has a pretty strong stance on who will win this series with the Golden State Warriors winning 70.1% of AccuScore’s simulations.

    The Houston Rockets aren’t exactly hopeless, but they’re facing long odds.

    To put into perspective the gulf between the Warriors and the Rockets, the latter of whom finished the season with the best record in the NBA, the Warriors have a 39.1% chance of winning the series in either four or five games. As a reminder, the Rockets only have 29.9% chance to win the series in any manner.

    In fact, the longer the series goes, the better the chances for Houston to pull off the upset.

    AccuScore has spread, totals and side value picks for every game in both conference finals and in the NBA Finals: NBA Playoffs Picks

    The Rockets have a 14.2% chance of winning in 7 games versus the Warriors’ 13.5% chance to win if the series goes the distance. Effectively, the Rockets’ best chance to advance to the NBA Finals involves playing the Warriors seven times and banking on the home court advantage to carry them through. That said, the Warriors are most likely to win in 5 games at 26.3% with the next most likely outcome as the Dubs winning in six games at 17.4%.

    To open the series, the Rockets won 52.4% of Game 1 simulations, so Houston is not exactly expected to be a pushover. All the games in Houston expect to be close contests with the Warriors afforded opportunities to win games, while the contests in Oakland fall in an entirely different category. Beating the Warriors four times in seven games with Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson all healthy is going to take some doing.

    Ultimately, AccuScore calculates that the probability of Houston beating the Warriors four times in a series is about a 30-70 split, with Golden State the clear favorite.

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  • Warriors vs Spurs: WCF Game 1

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Western Conference Finals: Game 1

    The Western Conference Finals. We finally made it to the WCF matchup most expected to get, the Spurs and Warriors with a chance to secure a trip to the NBA Finals. Given the talent difference and just overall style of play, it's not tough to see why Golden State is such a heavy favorite to win the series.

    They've been at about -1100 on the money line this week to win the series, suggesting over a 91 percent chance of winning. San Antonio, at about +700, is being given about a 12.5 percent chance of winning.

    Let's take a closer look at what AccuScore simulations have to say about the series, and Game 1.

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulations

    AccuScore data actually bumps the Warriors' 91 percent chance of winning up to 94-to-94 percent, suggesting the money line pick on the Warriors has some value.

    How quickly do the simulations expect this series to end? There's nearly a 68 percent chance the Warriors win the series in four or five games, with the most likely outcome being five games.

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    Game 1 Outlook

    At the time of publication, the Warriors are listed as 10.5-point favorites at home, with the total listed at 211.5. There hasn't been any movement on line or total since it opened.

    While the simulation percentage doesn't indicate much of a value, the Warriors covering the spread is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. In the past 30 days, the Spurs are 3-3 covering the spread on the road.

    Spurs-vs-Warriors-Game 1
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    Betting Trends

    We have another situation where simulation data is going against recent betting trends. Sims suggest taking the OVER, with nearly 57 percent of simulated matchups staying UNDER 211.5, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.


    • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Spurs' last 9 games vs the Warriors.

    What to Watch For

    Point Guard Battle - The Spurs were one of two teams who won their regular season series vs the Warriors, winning two-of-three matchups. The Warriors didn't have everyone healthy, though, so looking at those games to indicate future results is largely futile. Given the discrepancy in top-level talent between the two teams, a big variable will be the play of Patty Mills and Dejounte Murray - collectively replacing Tony Parker. Mills is averaging nearly 15 points per game and 4.5 assists per game over his last four contests. There's a very good chance Warriors guard Stephen Curry feasts on these two, one of many obstacles the Spurs will have to overcome or strategize around.

    Offensive Rebounding - If the Spurs are going to win any games, they'll have to dominate the glass, especially the offensive boards. The Spurs will more than likely stay big with LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol, and will need to take advantage of a team that gave back 25.1 percent of opposition's missed shots. The Warriors are down to below 18 percent in the postseason, No. 1 in the league, but keeping that number low against the Spurs won't be the same as doing it against Portland and Utah.