By Tomi Rantanen

Impact analysis – Welbeck concern unfounded

Nothing new under the sun – Arsenal is suffering a terrible injury crisis. Not only is the striker number one Oliver Giroud out until next year while midfielders Aaron Ramsey, Mikael Arteta and Mesut Özil seem unable to stay fit, but also Danny Welbeck received a knock in international duty and was subbed later on.

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Arsenal might be considered as a top-four team by many, but the depth of the squad is obviously lacking. That being said, Arsene Wenger does have some option in the attack with Lukas Podolski getting a surprise international call-up after only featuring once in the starting XI for the Londoners and Theo Walcott slowly but surely returning to match fitness.

Arsenal will face Hull at home on Saturday and using the AccuScore simulation engine, we can take a look at the impact of injuries, depending on the predicted starting lineups. How will the possible absence of Welbeck influence the result? Hull City will be without number one goalkeeper Alan McGregor and winger Ahmed Elmohamady is likely to be out after taken off with a knock during the last outing, but otherwise Steve Bruce has all his tools at hand.



Even with the injuries the AccuScore simulation predicts Arsenal to run out as clear winners against Hull City. In the first scenario we have included Danny Welbeck up front alongside Alexis Sanchez and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. The likelihood of Sanchez to score stands at 47.6%, while Welbeck’s is 34% and Ox’s slightly lower 22.1%. The scoring threat for Hull is resting on the shoulders of striker pairing of Abel Hernandez and Nikica Jelavic, both with scoring probability of slightly under 20%.



After replacing Welbeck with Podolski, who gained some match fitness with Germany, the score remains practically the same after more than 10 000 simulations. After all, Welbeck might not be as important as Mr. Wenger claims him to be and perhaps it would be optimal to try and implement the German international as well.