Premier League predictions and probabilities

Each Premier League fixture is simulated 10,000 times. The three 1X2 probabilities — home, draw, away — are the share of those simulations each result took, and the projected scoreline is the average of them. The same runs give the chance the match goes over or under each goals line, and the chance each player scores at any point.

Those numbers are priced against live bookmaker odds to find matches where the market is short. Our published record for soccer is on the accuracy page in full, competition by competition, including the periods where it has lost.

EPL predictions: common questions

How is a draw probability worked out?

It is the share of the 10,000 simulated matches that finished level — not a residual left over after the two win probabilities.

Do you predict exact scorelines?

We publish a projected scoreline and the most likely one, which are usually different numbers. The projection is an average; the most likely scoreline is the single result that came up most often.

What is an anytime goalscorer probability?

The share of simulations in which that player scored at least once.

Probabilities and projections come from AccuScore simulations; prices come from the bookmakers named beside them and move. Nothing here is betting advice. See the graded record.