Top NFL Picks - Week 6

Written by Jonathan Lee

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Carolina Panthers +113 at Minnesota Vikings
The Panthers are just one point underdogs which gives incentive to take the ML in this instance rather than the points.  They are winning 56 percent of the time in simulations outright, and that is with DeAngelo Williams averaging just 2.7 yards per carry on 15 attempts.  If Carolina can put together any semblance of a running game or just allowed Cam Newton to run the ball himself a bit, it would have a significantly better offensive output that the one in simulations.  That scenario would only improve the projected winning percentage.  This is a solid value play.

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Jacksonville Jaguars +26 at Denver Broncos
Of course the Jags are terrible, but should any NFL team be given nearly four touchdowns?  This is one of the largest lines in league history, and there is a reason the largest spreads of most seasons are typically less than 20 points.  The Broncos are gigantic favorites winning over 90 percent of simulations, but even so, they win by double digits just 77 percent of the time.  They will have to play significantly better than that to win by 26 points.  There should be extended garbage time in this game which will extend the chances of Jacksonville getting a few meaningless scores and a backdoor cover.