NFL Week 7: Preview & Analysis
Every week, AccuScore’s computer simulates every game in the NFL 10,000 times to arrive at detailed projections and game predictions. With 6 weeks of the 2012 NFL season completed, AccuScore has analysis on every game for Week 7. To see the Super Computer’s Betting Picks against the spread and on totals for each of these games, go to NFL Expert Picks
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The 49ers are 72% favorites as Alex Smith is bouncing back from a bad performance vs NY. He has a 58% chance of not throwing any INTs. If Smith has multiple INTs then SF is the 43% underdog. The 49ers defense struggled last week but they should bounce back holding Marshawn Lynch to just 3.1 ypc. If Seattle can average 4.5 ypc for 120+ rushing yards the Seahawks become the 51% favorite, but if Lynch averages under 3.0 ypc and has under 60 rushing yards then Seattle only has a 20% favorite. Russell Wilson is averaging more INTs than TDs. If he has more TDs than INTs the Seahawks have nearly a 50% chance.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants are 59% favorites but Washington is expected to keep it close thanks to RGIII who is projected for 265 passing yards and an impressive 68 rushing yards. If the Giants can contain RGIII, limit him to under 35 rushing yards, and intercept him at least once then the Giants are heavy 82% favorites. But there is a 25% chance RGIII has no INTs and runs for at least 50 rushing yards and in these simulations Washington wins 65% of the time. Ahmad Bradshaw had a big game vs the 49ers. If he has 75+ rushing yards and at least 1 rushing TD the Giants have a 75% chance.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Vikings are 72% favorites. Adrian Peterson has not scored a TD since Week 1, but there is a 58% chance he rushes for a TD this week and if he does Minnesota is the 83% favorite. The Cardinals have injuries at RB but William Powell had good game as the starting RB vs Buffalo. He is only projected for 45 yards on 3.8 ypc vs the Vikings. If Powell has 75+ yards on 5.0+ ypc then Cardinals chances improve from 28 to 60%. Both defenses are getting a lot of sacks. There is a 21% chance that both teams have at least 4 sacks.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Cowboys offense dominated the Ravens defense and Carolina is ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league defensively. As a result Dallas is the 65% road favorite. If Tony Romo throws no more than 1 INT and the team rushes for at least 4.0 ypc then Dallas is the heavy 78% favorite. The Panthers need to run the ball well to win. In simulated Panthers wins they average 157 rushing yards on 5.5 ypc, but in simulated losses the Panthers average 89 rushing yards on 4.3 ypc. Cam Newton has been seriously off throwing the ball this season. There is a 35% chance he completes over 60% of his passes and has no more than 1 INT and if he does this the Panthers are the 52% favorite.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Drew Brees is averaging his typical 320 yards and 2.3 TDs per sim. He is averaging over 1 INT per sim. There is a 16% chance that Brees has more INTs than TD passes and if he has a bad game the Saints only have a 32% chance. But if he has more TD passes than INTs the Saints are heavy 80% favorites. In their 2 wins Josh Freeman had more TDs than INTs. This alone does not make TB the favorite, but if Freeman has more TDs than INTs and Tampa Bay averages at least 4.5 ypc then the Bucs are 53% favorites.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
The Rams defense is vastly improved, but they are not expected to be able to handle the rejuvenated Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers has a 32% chance of having 3 or more TD passes and no more than 1 INT and if he does this the Packers are 90% favorites. If the Rams sack Rodgers 4 or more times, allow no more than 2 TD passes and intercept him at least once then the Rams are the 53% favorite. If Sam Bradford passes for more TDs than Aaron Rodgers the Rams are 64% favorites, but there is only a 14% chance this happens.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
In Week 6 of 2011 the Ravens held Arian Foster to just 49 rushing yards, but a lot has changed in a year. Houston is the 57% favorite with Arian Foster averaging over 100 rushing yards per sim vs the battered Ravens defense. There is only a 38% chance the Ravens can hold Foster to under 75 rushing yards and under 4.0 ypc but if it happens the Ravens are 65% favorites. The Ravens offense needs to dominate the way the Packers did if Baltimore expects to win. Baltimore averages over 27 points per sim in victories, but they average a paltry 16 points in simulated losses. In simulated Ravens losses Houston averages over 170 rushing yards.
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ INDIANPOLIS COLTS
The Colts defense struggled vs the Jets and the Browns offense is looking better each week. The Colts are just barely winning over 50% of the simulations. Andrew Luck is getting the edge in total passing yards vs Brandon Weeden but Weeden actually has the slightly higher QBR in simulations. If Weeden has more passing TDs than Andrew Luck then Cleveland is the heavy 71% favorite. If Luck has 2 or more TD passes and no more than 1 INT then Indianapolis is the 73% favorite. If Trent Richardson is not healthy enough to be the starter Cleveland sees their chances drop to 44%.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ BUFFALO BILLS
The Bills are 65% favorites. If Buffalo's expensive new defense plays well and gets at least 3 sacks while holding Chris Johnson to under 65 rushing yards then Buffalo is the heavy 85% favorite. But if the Bills defense disappears with no more than 2 sacks and Johnson has over 65 rushing yards then Buffalo only has a 43% chance. Both CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are running well with a combined 125 yards on 22 carries per sim. If the Titans can hold both RBs to under 60 yards then Tennessee is the 57% favorite.
NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots are 79% home favorites even though both teams are 3-3. The Patriots running game stalled vs the Seahawks but they are expected to put up big numbers vs the Jets who are still just 28th against the run. The Jets are also near the bottom of the league in sacks (just 9 on the season). If the Jets defense holds the Patriots to under 120 rushing yards and can sack Tom Brady at least 3 times then the Jets are 56% favorites. But if Brady is not pressured and is sacked no more than twice and the Patriots rush for 120+ then the Patriots are heavy 89% favorites.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Raiders are 66% favorites because their defense is holding Jacksonville to 17 points per simulation and Carson Palmer is only averaging 1 INT. If Maurice Jones-Drew has a 100+ rushing yards and Carson Palmer has 1 or more INTs then the Jags are 64% favorites. If the Raiders defense holds MJD to under 4.0 ypc and intercept Blaine Gabbert at least once then the Raiders are heavy 81% favorites. Darren McFadden has averaged over 3.0 ypc just once this year. He has a 58% chance of averaging 4.0 or more ypc and if he does the Raiders are 73% favorites, but if he is held to 2.6 ypc or less again then the Raiders are 49% underdogs.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Steelers are 59% favorites even though their defense has been unable to hold onto late leads on the road. Andy Dalton has thrown an INT in every game this seasons with 5 in the past 2 weeks. There is a 25% chance he has another multiple INT game and if he does the Bengals are 19% underdogs. If Dalton has no INTs and AJ Green has a big 75+ yd, 1+ TD game then the Bengals are 57% favorites. The Bengals defense needs to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger. If they sack Ben 4 or more times the Bengals chances jump from 41 to 48%. If they get 5 or more sacks the Bengals are 53% favorites.
DETROIT LIONS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Matthew Stafford has just 4 passing TDs and Calvin Johnson has just 1 receiving TD. The struggling Lions offense is a 31% underdog to the top rated Bears defense. If Stafford completes over 60%, has more passing TDs than Cutler and Calvin Johnson has at least 1 TD then the Lions are 57% favorites. But if the Bears defense sacks Stafford 4 or more times then Chicago becomes the 81% favorite. The Lions defense finally had a decent game with 3 sacks, 2 interceptions and good run defense vs the Eagles. If Detroit has 3 sacks, 2 INTs and holds the Bears to under 4.0 ypc then Detroit is the 77% favorite.